Tornado Warning 5, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
200 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE W TONIGHT THEN PUSH OFFSHORE
LATE SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE AREA FRI.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM SATURDAY...CLOUDS HAVE THINNED ENOUGH INLAND FOR TEMPS
TO RISE WELL INTO 70S...THIS COMBINED WITH DEWPTS IN THE LOW AND
MID 60S IS GIVING CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000. STARTING TO SEE SOME
ISOLD SHRA DEVELOP INLAND AND EXPECT CONT INCREASE IN CVRG AND
INTENSITY THROUGH THE AFTN AS CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORT ASSOC WITH
DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SW LIFTS NE TOWARD THE REGION AIDING IN
LIFT. CURRENT SHEAR VALUES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE BUT WILL BE
INCREASING TOWARD EVENING AND PEAK LATE TONIGHT. THINK COULD SEE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SVR TSRA LATER THIS AFTN GIVEN DECENT INSTAB
AND INCREASING LIFT. THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF POSS SEVERE STORMS
OVERNIGHT WHEN BEST WIND FIELDS/LIFT DEVELOP AHEAD OF MAIN UPR TRF.
WILL MAINTAIN CAT POPS FOR OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH WORDING OF
DAMAGING WINDS AS THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARY THREAT. WILL BE
MILD WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH S/SW WINDS AHEAD OF
FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM SATURDAY...ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
BY SUN AFTERNOON. WILL CONT TO HAVE SEVERE THREAT EARLY ESPCLY
COAST GIVEN VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS AND CONT INSTAB AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE WELL AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT AND WITH SOME SUNSHINE LIKELY DURING AFTN SHLD BE VERY MILD
WITH GUSTY SW WINDS. HIGHS IN THE MID TO POSS UPR 70S INLAND WITH
UPR 60S TO AROUND 70 CNTRL OBX. WEAK HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS SUN
NIGHT AND MON THEN SLIDE OFFSHORE TUE. THIS WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH COOL NIGHTS AND PLEASANT AFTN TEMPS. LOWS SHLD BE
MAINLY IN THE LOW AND MID 40S WITH HIGHS UPR 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM SATURDAY...ANOTHER UPR TRF IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NE TO
THE W OF REGION WED. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE W WED WITH
THREAT OF SHRA AND POSS AN ISOLD TSRA. MDLS DIFFER ON HOW SHARP THE
UPR TRF WILL BE WITH EMCWF FLATTER WITH WEAKER SFC FRONT/LOW. GFS IS
QUITE AMPLIFIED AND SHOW A WAVE OF LOW PRES DEVELOPING JUST TO THE
NW PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS WED. FOR NOW WENT CLOSER TO EMCWF PER HPC
BUT STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY. LOOKS LIKE A BREAK THU BEFORE ANOTHER
SYSTEM CROSSES LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200PM...SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE
MVFR CIGS OVER THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING TO FORM.
THESE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE
THUNDERESTORMS. MVFR CIGS AND VIS WILL BE COMMON WITH AREAS OF IFR
IN TSTMS AND FOG. EXPECTING MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY TO BE OFFSHORE BY
18Z SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN
THROUGH TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A THREAT OF IFR CIGS AND
VIS ON WEDNESDAY. BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE OVER AREA THURSDAY WITH
ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 200PM...WRM FRNT OVR VA WL TRY TO DROP INTO NC THIS AFTN BUT
WL MV BACK N OF WTRS THIS EVE. WL CONT ELY SWELL FRM DEPARTG LO PRES
OVR CNTRL ATL. GRAD WL TITEN TNGT AS WVS ON FRNT MVS NE N OF WTRS.
AM XPCTG WND WV TO PICK UP TO SCA CRIT LTR TNGT AS GRAD TITENS IN
ADV OF APPCHG CD FNT. FNT TO PASS OVR THE WTRS SUN NGT. W WND BHND
FNT TO BE GUSTY...BUT AS GRAD LOOSENS BHND FNT MON...WND WL DROP TO
BLO SCA CRIT AGN. HI PRES TO BLD IN FRM THE W MON NGT WI WND BCK TO
SLY TUE NGT AHD OF NXT SYS.

HI PRES E OF WTRS TUE NGT WI SLY WND. LO PRES WL MV UP THE ST ON WED
WI TITENG GRAD AND WND BCMG WLY AS LO DEEPNS WHEN IT MVS OVR THE
WTRS. WND WL RMN SW THRU THE RMNDR OF THE WK WI MOD GRAD. BIG DIFFS
BTWN ECMWF AND GFS BY END OF WK AND INTO THE WKEND WI TIMING OF NXT
SYS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
         AMZ135.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
         AMZ150-156-158.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...CGG
MARINE...CGG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
524 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2009

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103-104-290930-
MARTIN-PITT-WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-MAINLAND DARE-GREENE-BEAUFORT-
MAINLAND HYDE-DUPLIN-LENOIR-JONES-CRAVEN-PAMLICO-CARTERET-ONSLOW-
OUTER BANKS DARE-OUTER BANKS HYDE-
524 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION. THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH THESE STORMS
WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSSIBLY LINGER INTO
SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
628 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0605 PM     TORNADO          2 W HOOKERTON           35.42N 77.62W
03/27/2009                   GREENE             NC   NWS STORM SURVEY

            NWS SURVEY OF DAMAGE NEAR HOOKERTON REVEALED AN EF-1
            TORNADO WITH WINDS ESTIMATED BETWEEN 105 TO 110 MPH. THE
            TORNADO HAD A PATH LENGTH AROUND ONE AND ONE HALF MILE
            WITH A WIDTH AROUND 100 YARDS.

&&

JW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
950 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2009

NCZ090-290245-
DUPLIN-
950 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT DUPLIN COUNTY UNTIL 1045 PM
EDT...

AT 944 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 22 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF WARSAW...OR ABOUT 21 MILES WEST OF WALLACE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
40 MPH. THIS STRONG STORM WILL BE NEAR WARSAW AT 1020 PM
EDT...BOWDENS AT 1025 PM EDT...BEAUTANCUS AT 1035 PM EDT. OTHER
LOCATIONS TO BE AFFECTED BY THE STORMS INCLUDE KENANSVILLE.

WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. DOPPLER
RADAR INDICATES ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM AND A TORNADO WARNING MAY
BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF DUPLIN COUNTY.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT SUNDAY MORNING
FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
FURTHER UPDATES ON THE WEATHER SITUATION ACROSS THE AREA.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
951 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2009

NCZ029-044-290245-
MARTIN-PITT-
951 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PITT AND MARTIN COUNTIES UNTIL
1045 PM EDT...

AT 951 PM EDT...THERE WERE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER WEST CENTRAL
PITT COUNTY...OR ABOUT 6 MILES NORTH OF FARMVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 35 MPH. THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR BETHEL AT 1010 PM
EDT...HASSELL AT 1025 PM EDT...OAK CITY AT 1030 PM EDT. OTHER
LOCATIONS TO BE AFFECTED BY THE STORMS INCLUDE BETHEL...BELL ARTHUR
AND BRUCE.

WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT SUNDAY MORNING
FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
FURTHER UPDATES ON THE WEATHER SITUATION ACROSS THE AREA.