Severe Thunderstorm Warning 76, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
451 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH OF THE AREA
THIS EVENING. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE SUNDAY AND
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUN NIGHT. WEAK TROUGHING INLAND AND OFFSHORE
HIGH PRES ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 430 PM...WEAK FRONT HAS MOVED JUST OFFSHORE THE SE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT N/NW WINDS PREVAILING OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA. CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED JUST OFFSHORE ALONG THE FRONT WITH
LITTLE DEVELOPMENT INLAND. DESPITE LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW...AIRMASS
HAS BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE OVER SOUTHERN INLAND SECTIONS WHERE
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 70S WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S. STRONG INSTABILITY...MINIMAL CAP AND RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES
SHOULD RESULT IN ADDITION STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS
CONFINED TO SOUTHERN SECTIONS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. THIS MATCHES UP WELL WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH 526 WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11PM FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA. CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING WITH LOSS OF
HEATING. OVERNIGHT LOWS UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT WAVE RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST BY LATE
SUN AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRES SYSTEM DROPS SE EAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. GRADIENT WILL REMAIN VERY WEAK ACROSS THE AREA
ON SUN WITH LIGHT DOWNLSOPE FLOW RESULTING IN LOWER DEWPOINTS.
CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG PINNED SEA BREEZE AND
PRE FRONTAL TROUGH SO KEPT POPS IN THE LOW CHANCE RANGE. WEAK
FRONT DROPS SE ACROSS THE AERA SUN NIGHT AND KEPT POPS LIMITED TO
SLIGHT CHANCE. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SE SECTIONS MON WHERE PINNED SEA
BREEZE WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION SE SECTIONS.
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TUE/TUE NIGHT SO WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY GIVEN
LIMITED MOISTURE AND LACK OF FOCUS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S INLAND AWAY FROM THE WATER.
COOLER ALONG THE BEACHES WITH HIGHS MID/UPPER 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
MAINLY LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL FILL AND
LIFT NE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BY FRI WITH ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING IN
ITS WAKE. THE UPPER LOW WILL DRAG ANOTHER WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRI BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE EXPECT ONLY ISOALTED DIURNAL CONVECTION
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WARM TEMPS
CONTINUING. HIGHS UPEPR 80S TO LOWER 90S INLAND WITH MAINLY
MID 80S ALONG THE BEACHES. LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM...FRONT PUSHED OFF THE COAST FARTHER THAN EXPECTED
SOONER THIS AFTERNOON KEEPING ENTIRE AREA IN NW FLOW AND PREVENTING
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. SOME SCT DIURNAL CU DEVELOPED...BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.  ONLY A FEW ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE
DEVELOPED...AND EXPECT COVERAGE TO REMAIN MINIMAL...WITH THE
POTENTIAL EXCEPTION OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT AND VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS...EXPECT PATCHY GROUND FOG.
WOULD LIKELY BE WORSE IN ANY AREAS THAT RECEIVE ANY TSTMS THIS
EVENING.

DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE THE NORM INTO NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LVL NW
FLOW AND WARM SW FLOW AT THE SFC KEEPS THE REGION UNSTABLE...AND
THUS SUPPORTIVE OF AFTERNOON TSRA. HUMID AIRMASS COULD LEAD TO
POCKETS OF GROUND FOG AT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 4 PM...FRONT PROGRESSED OFF THE COAST MUCH FASTER THAN
ANTICIPATED.  THIS PINNED SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH SOME SRLY
FLOW TRYING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SRN WATERS. FRONT WILL WASH OUT AND
FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME SRLY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA ON EARLY MON. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE WEAK FLOW
TONIGHT...BUT NAM AND GFS IN PRETTY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH NEXT FRONT
MONDAY. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE IN THE EXTENDED...WITH SRLY
FLOW AND TROUGHINESS PERSISTING OVER THE AREA INTO NEXT THU.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JW
NEAR TERM...JW
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...JW
AVIATION...RSB
MARINE...RSB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
421 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2009

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>094-280830-
MARTIN-PITT-WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-MAINLAND DARE-GREENE-BEAUFORT-
MAINLAND HYDE-DUPLIN-LENOIR-JONES-CRAVEN-PAMLICO-
421 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...AND A FEW OF
THE STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO A THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON.

NCZ095-098-103-104-280830-
CARTERET-ONSLOW-OUTER BANKS DARE-OUTER BANKS HYDE-
421 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...AND A FEW OF
THE STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO A THREAT.

THERE IS A MODERATE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE BEACHES TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON.

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