Severe Thunderstorm Warning 116, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
250 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLDFRONT WILL SLIP OFFSHORE BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A STRONG
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING HOT AND HUMID WEATHER. THE RIDGE
WILL WEAKEN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM THU...AS EXPECTED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
FORMING THIS AFTERNOON IN MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF
COLDFRONT NOW CROSSING THE COASTAL PLAINS. MAIN THREAT STILL
APPEARS TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH POSSIBLE TRAINING OF CELLS.
STILL ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A BRIEF WET MICROBURST AND POSSIBLE
SOME MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL...BUT THINK SEVERE THREAT IS FAIRLY
MINIMAL. MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE OFFSHORE BY 03Z IF NOT
EARLIER WITH ACTUAL BOUNDARY TO MOVE OFFSHORE BY 06Z TO 09Z. ONCE
THE WEAK CAA KICKS IN...MIN TEMPS MAY FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S AWAY
FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM THU...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON FRIDAY
EXPECT A MUCH MORE PLEASANT DAY WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S INLAND AND MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL. BY SATURDAY...THE
SURFACE FLOW VEERS AROUND TO MORE S/SW INCREASING HUMIDITY AND
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S. BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTION AND THINK ANY PRECIP SATURDAY WILL
BE VERY ISOLATED AND WILL LEAVE OUT OF FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1120 AM THU...GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF IN
EVOLUTION OF UPPER PATTERN INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. STRONG H5
RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL
LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND HIGH DEWPOINTS BOTH DAYS WITH HEAT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY AND POSSIBLE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING
CONDITIONS. CONVECTION WILL BE SUPPRESSED AND EXPECT MINIMAL POPS
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BY TUESDAY...RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN AND
RETROGRADE TO THE WEST WITH H5 TROF DIGGING BACK INTO THE SOUTH BY
WEDS AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH BY EARLY
THU. WILL BRING BACK CHC POPS AND LOWER MAX TEMPS WEDS INTO
THURS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230PM THU...
SCATTERED CONVECTION TO IMPACT ERN NC THROUGH EARLY EVENING THEN
SHOULD SLIDE E OF TERMINALS WITH MAIN SHORT WAVE PUSHING OFFSHORE.
WILL THEREFORE KEEP IN VCTS/SH WITH TEMPO MVFR IN THROUGH 23Z FOR
INLAND SITES AND 3Z FOR COASTAL SITES. SOME ISOLATED IFR WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CELLS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FOG AND/OR POST FRONTAL
STRATUS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...THEN SHOULD DIMINISH
QUICKLY INTO FRI MORNING AS DRY AIR WORKS IN WITH NLY FLOW BEHIND
FRONT. VFR TO RULE THE REST OF FRI AS WEAK HIGH PRES REBUILDS.

VFR EXPECTED TO DOMINATE IN EXTENDED. DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
BE MAINLY ISOLATED AT BEST AS DEEP LAYERED RIDGING IMPACTS THE
REGION. PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE PER NORMAL THO.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 230PM THU...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. MODERATE TO FRESH S TO
SW FLOW TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING AS OFFSHORE HIGH PRES
INTERACTS WITH APPROACHING FRONT. STILL THINK THERE WILL BE A BRIEF
WINDOW WHERE BOTH WINDS AND SEAS COULD FLIRT WITH SCA LEVEL MAINLY
OUTER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WATERS. SINCE 41025 IS A LITTLE LESS THAN
GUIDANCE IN BOTH WINDS AND SEAS HAVE OPTED FOR A SCEC INSTEAD OF SCA
BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OF POTENTIAL UPGRADE. FRONT PUSHES
OFFSHORE EARLY FRI MORNING WITH A BRIEF 15KT SURGE OF NW/N WINDS FOR
THE NRN WATERS...SLIGHTLY WEAKER SOUTH. THIS WILL DIMINISH DURING
THE DAY ON FRI WHILE VEERING NE THEN E AS THE POST FRONTAL HIGH
LOOKS WEAK. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE FRI NITE INTO SAT ALLOWING
WINDS TO RETURN TO A MORE NORMAL SE THEN S DIRECTION. THEREAFTER WE
ARE EXPECTING TYPICAL LIGHT TO MODERATE (5-15KT) S/SW WINDS TO RULE
LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK AROUND THE OFFSHORE HIGH.

SEAS MAY BRIEFLY HIT THE 4FT(ISH) MARK FOR THE NRN WATERS IN SHORT
PERIOD NLY WIND WAVES FRI MORNING BUT THOSE WAVES SHOULD DIMINISH
THROUGH THE DAY...AS SHOULD THE LINGERING SSW WAVES FROM TODAYS
WIND. THAT LEAVES US WITH MAINLY 2-3FT SEAS AS WE HEAD INTO AND THRU
THE WEEKEND IN A MIX OF LOCAL WIND WAVES AND SE BACKGROUND
SWELL...EXCEPT UP TO AROUND 4FT FOR CENTRAL WATERS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...MW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
322 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2009

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>094-098-070730-
MARTIN-PITT-WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-MAINLAND DARE-GREENE-BEAUFORT-
MAINLAND HYDE-DUPLIN-LENOIR-JONES-CRAVEN-PAMLICO-ONSLOW-
322 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER TODAY. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH
THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND...HEAVY RAINS...AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MAY PRODUCE HEAT INDICES VALUES
BETWEEN 105 AND 110 DEGREES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY EVENTUALLY BE REQUIRED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

NCZ095-103-104-070730-
CARTERET-OUTER BANKS DARE-OUTER BANKS HYDE-
322 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER TODAY. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH
THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND...HEAVY RAINS...AND LARGE HAIL.

THERE IS A MODERATE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS FROM CAPE HATTERAS TO
CAPE LOOKOUT TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MAY PRODUCE HEAT INDICES VALUES
BETWEEN 105 AND 110 DEGREES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY EVENTUALLY BE REQUIRED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

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