Red Flag Warning 1, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
500 AM EST THU FEB 12 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE LOW
PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE WESTERN GULF COAST REGION TO OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN BUILD
OVER THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS AND SCT SHWRS HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE BUT SFC FRONT STILL
TRAVERSING AREA WITH LOWER DEW PTS AND VEERING OF WINDS TO W. STRONG
PRES GRAD WILL CONTINUE OVER AREA TODAY AS LOW PRES MOVES FROM GREAT
LAKES TO ERN CANADA...RESULTING IN GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AND MILD
TEMPS WITH DOWNSLOPING FLOW. STRONGER SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALONG
COAST EARLY THIS MORNING AND CONTINUED WIND ADVSY UNTIL 10 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SFC RIDGE FROM NW TO SE WILL EXTEND OVER AREA TONIGHT THROUGH FRI
NIGHT. DAMPENING SHRT WV FCST TO MOVE OUT OF ROCKIES FRI AND COMBINE
WITH SOME SRN STREAM ENERGY TO FORM COMPLEX LOW PRES SYSTEM TO
AFFECT AREA ON SAT. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON HOW MUCH MSTR WILL
MAKE IT OVER ERN NC AND KEPT POPS AT 50 N/60 S FOR NOW. LOW PRES
MOVES OUT AND HIGH PRES BUILDS IN AGAIN SAT NIGHT...BUT FCST RH
XSCTNS INDICATE LOW LVL MSTR LINGERING INTO SUN. MOS BLEND FOR
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FCST. SOME CONCERN FOR SUN NIGHT AND MON AS
BOTH 00Z GFS AND ECMWF INDICATING SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT S OF
AREA AS SHRT WV DIVES IN FROM W-NW...AND ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR PSBL
P-TYPE ISSUES. WILL NOT JUMP ON THIS UNTIL FURTHER MODEL
CONTINUITY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR/SKC THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE THE WIND.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. A WEST FLOW IS
FORECAST FOR TODAY AT SPEEDS OF 15-20 KNOTS SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS
AROUND 30 KNOTS FOR MOST OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 5-10
KNOTS THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY WITH A WEST NORTHWEST SURFACE WIND AROUND
10 KNOTS. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS
SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER/GENERALLY VFR FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
00Z GFS FOLLOWED FOR THE MOST PART AGAIN THIS MORNING. WIND SPEEDS
OVER LAND HAVE DIMINISH TEMPORARILY FROM WHAT THEY WERE LAST
EVENING. HOWEVER...AFTER THE FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING A STRONG WEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE
INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WILL LET GALE WARNING EXPIRE AT 7AM...THEN
ISSUE AN UPDATED SET OF MARINE ZONES TO PUT UP SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES NORTH OF OCRACOKE AND ON THE PAMLICO SOUND. CONDITIONS
WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
WEST BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE HIGH WILL DISSIPATE
FRIDAY NIGHT HOWEVER AND THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. THE SUFACE LOW WILL PASS BY JUST TO THE NORTH SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE TRAILING WARM/COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH
DURING THIS TIME. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
FROM LATE AFTERNOON SATURDAY INTO MIDDAY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY INTO THE CAROLINAS TUESDAY.
THE GFS IS DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MONDAY
AND MOVING IT QUICKLY NORTHEAST. BUMPED UP WINDS AND SEAS IN
RESPONSE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPDGRADE OF FIRE WX WATCH TO RED FLAG WARNING FOR TODAY PENDING
BASED ON CONSULT WITH NC FOREST SERVICE. WINDS AND RH EXPECTED TO
MEET RED FLAG CRITERIA THIS AFTN BUT FINE FUEL MOISTURE MAY NOT MEET
CRITERIA.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON EST TODAY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ047-081-095-
     103-104.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ135-150-152-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ130.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...HSA
MARINE...HSA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
246 PM EST WED FEB 11 2009

NCZ029-044>046-079-080-090>094-098-122000-
MARTIN-PITT-WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-GREENE-BEAUFORT-DUPLIN-LENOIR-JONES-
CRAVEN-PAMLICO-ONSLOW-
246 PM EST WED FEB 11 2009

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FIRE WEATHER WATCH.

GUSTY WEST WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL PRODUCE INCREASED
FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ047-081-095-122000-
MAINLAND DARE-MAINLAND HYDE-CARTERET-
246 PM EST WED FEB 11 2009

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
THURSDAY...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL RANGE FROM 25 TO 35 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH OR GREATER LATE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.
   FIRE WEATHER WATCH.

GUSTY WEST WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL PRODUCE INCREASED
FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY.

SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL OCCUR
DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ103-104-122000-
OUTER BANKS DARE-OUTER BANKS HYDE-
246 PM EST WED FEB 11 2009

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL RANGE FROM 25 TO 35 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH OR GREATER LATE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL OCCUR
DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

11