Coastal Flood Statement 3, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
359 PM EDT MON APR 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
TUESDAY AND PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF THE
COAST WHILE CONTINUING TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 400 PM MONDAY...SCATTERED CONVECTION REDEVELOPING INLAND
WHERE AIRMASS HAS HAD TIME TO RECOVER. WATCH #179 IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 10 PM. THERE IS JUST ENOUGH SHEAR/INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
FOR SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREATS. DEWPOINTS HAVE HAVE REALLY
MIXED OUT THIS AFTERNOON DROPPING FROM THE MID/UPPER 60S TO THE
MID AND UPPER 50S AND THIS MAY ACT TO INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM INITIATION
WHILE ENHANCING THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT FOR STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO
FORM. ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER OFF BY 02Z BUT WILL NEED TO CARRY A
CHANCE POP OVERNIGHT AS INITIAL FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM MONDAY...UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US WILL
DOMINATE THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. A SECONDARY FRONT WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT. SW FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT WILL HELP BOOST TEMPS INTO
THE 70S TUESDAY. DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD OVERCOME LACK OF
MOISTURE SO WILL CARRY A 30 POP TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S BOTH DAYS THE COOLEST BEING WEDNESDAY WHEN
TEMPERATURES MAY NOT ESCAPE THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM MONDAY...WHILE THE FLOW WILL REMAIN AMPLIFIED THROUGH
THE PERIOD THE PATTERN WILL FLIP FLOP WITH THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH
BEING REPLACED BY AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINNING THURSDAY AND PERSISTING
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN WILL RESULT IN DRY AND INITIALLY
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS DURING MIDWEEK WITH INCREASINGLY WARMER
WEATHER AS THE UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST
OVER THE WEEKEND. THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE SHOULD KEEP A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT AT BAY UNTIL TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM MON...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED AT ALL
AREA TERMINALS THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. SOME STORMS WILL BE
SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. SEVERE THREAT WILL END
LATE THIS EVENING AS ACTIVITY MOVES OFF THE COAST. MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH IFR/LIFR IN STORMS. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 15-25
KNOTS THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TO 10-15
KNOTS THIS EVENING...THEN DIMINISH FURTHER TO 5-10 KNOTS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST EARLY TUESDAY
TAKING MOST OF THE LOW CLOUDS WITH IT. WINDS ON TUESDAY WILL BE
SOUTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 310 PM MON...GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE 12Z GFS FOR THIS
PACKAGE. STAYED CLOSE TO CURRENT FORECAST WITH NO BIG CHANGES.
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ALL AREAS EXCEPT FOR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST EARLY TUESDAY. CIRCULATION
AROUND LARGE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP WINDS WEST TO
SOUTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME MUCH LIGHTER
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST LATE THIS WEEK WITH THE FLOW
BECOMING SOUTHWEST THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ150.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...HSA
MARINE...HSA