Wind Advisory 7, NWS Medford, OR

000 
WWUS76 KMFR 012043
NPWMFR

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1243 PM PST SUN MAR 1 2009

ORZ026-020445-
/O.EXA.KMFR.WI.Y.0007.090301T2100Z-090302T0600Z/
JACKSON COUNTY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MEDFORD...ASHLAND
1243 PM PST SUN MAR 1 2009

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEDFORD HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING. 

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

$$

CAZ081-020445-
/O.CON.KMFR.WI.Y.0007.090301T2100Z-090302T0600Z/
CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...YREKA...WEED
1243 PM PST SUN MAR 1 2009

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING. 

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH WILL PERSIST 
THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

$$

000 
WWUS76 KMFR 020433
NPWMFR

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
833 PM PST SUN MAR 1 2009

CAZ081-020600-
/O.CON.KMFR.WI.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-090302T0600Z/
CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...YREKA...WEED
833 PM PST SUN MAR 1 2009

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING. 

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

$$

ORZ026-020600-
/O.CON.KMFR.WI.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-090302T0600Z/
JACKSON COUNTY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MEDFORD...ASHLAND
833 PM PST SUN MAR 1 2009

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING. 

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED.
WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

$$

DW

000 
WWUS76 KMFR 020608
NPWMFR

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1008 PM PST SUN MAR 1 2009


CAZ081-ORZ026-020715-
/O.EXP.KMFR.WI.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-090302T0600Z/
CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY-JACKSON COUNTY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...YREKA...WEED...MEDFORD...ASHLAND
1008 PM PST SUN MAR 1 2009

...WIND ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

THE WIND ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. WINDS IN THE ROGUE AND
SHASTA VALLEYS HAVE DECREASED. IT WILL ONLY BE BREEZY OVERNIGHT
WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 10 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH.

$$

DW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
900 PM PST SAT FEB 28 2009

.DISCUSSION...THE FORECAST HAS BEEN IN LINE WITH WIND AS THE MAIN
INITIAL ITEM OF WEATHER INTEREST. WINDS HAVE REACHED GALE FORCE
OFFSHORE AND THESE STRONGER SOUTH WINDS WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE
COAST SUNDAY. WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE PARENT LOW
OFFSHORE...SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST AND CURRY COUNTY.

THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A CHANCE OF EITHER RAIN OR SHOWERS THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. BUT THE MAIN PERIODS OF INTEREST ARE SUNDAY
NIGHT...MONDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FIRST
TWO OF THOSE PERIODS COINCIDE WITH STRONGER FRONTS ROTATING INTO
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5000
FEET THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS REMAINS SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER
THAN THE NAM...A DIFFERENCE OF WHETHER SNOW LEVELS WILL BE BELOW
MAJOR PASS LEVELS OR NOT MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A COMPROMISE
LOOKS MOST REASONABLE WHICH WOULD PUT THEM JUST ABOUT RIGHT AT
4500 FEET.

AFTER A PERIOD OF GRADUALLY DIMINISHING SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...THIS LOW WILL FINALLY WEAKEN AND MOVE INLAND
WEDNESDAY. BUT A STRONG AND COLD SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FROM
THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY. THE GFS REMAINS FASTER AND NOT AS COLD AS
THE ECMWF WITH THIS SYSTEM. BOTH MODELS DEPICT A STORMY THURSDAY
BUT THE GREAT UNCERTAINTY IS WHETHER CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY BEHIND
THE FRONT FRIDAY OR IF SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE CONTINUING.
WEAK RIDGING IS INDICATED NEXT WEEKEND...WHICH WOULD MEAN PERHAPS
JUST A FEW OVERRUNNING SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.
CIGS WILL LOWER SUNDAY AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES INLAND...BUT THEY
SHOULD REMAIN VFR. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING IS WIND SPEED SHEAR AT THE COAST...AND IT IS POSSIBLE IN THE
UMPQUA BASIN AND THE ROGUE VALLEY ALSO. WINDS AT AND ABOVE 2000 FEET
AGL COULD END UP BETWEEN 30 AND 45 KTS IN THESE LOCATIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 PM PST SAT FEB 28 2009/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...CURRENTLY...SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A TROUGH DEEPENING AND STRENGTHENING WEST OF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. IN ADDITION...A STRONG DISTURBANCE IS QUICKLY
SPINNING AROUND THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE TROUGH AND IS POISED
TO BRUSH ALONG THE OREGON COAST THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND
ESSENTIALLY REMAIN STALLED OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST TONIGHT AND
SLOWLY PUSH NORTHEASTWARD SUNDAY. THE IMPACT WILL BE INCREASED
WINDS AND A GENERAL DELAY TO THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION
INLAND. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE INCREASING...WHICH WILL CAUSE
ENHANCED PRECIPITATION ON SOUTH FACING SLOPES AS WELL AS RAIN
SHADOWS IN PLACES LIKE THE MEDFORD.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MODELS INDICATE THAT THE STRONGEST PART
OF THIS FIRST SYSTEM WILL OCCUR DURING THIS PERIOD. IVE ADJUSTED
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS UPWARD. IN ADDITION...SNOW LEVELS BEGIN TO
CREEP DOWNWARD DROPPING FROM OVER 5000 FEET MONDAY MORNING TO
GENERALLY AROUND 3500 TO 4000 FEET BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. PASS LEVEL
SNOWS AT SISKIYOU SUMMIT MAY BE AN ISSUE...BUT TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT TO ISSUE A SNOW ADVISORY.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...POST FRONTAL SHOWERS AND A COOLING
TREND WILL PERSIST AS THE BACK END OF THIS FIRST TROUGH MOVES
OVERHEAD.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE LONG WAVE PATTERN IS
NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH FOR THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS. A LONG WAVE
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH THE MEAN RIDGE
POSITIONED OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. THE SOURCE REGION FOR THE
NEXT FEW UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS WILL COME FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA
WHICH MEANS A CONTINUED COOL AND UNSETTLED PATTERN. REGARDING THE
DETAILS...THE GFS AND ENSEMBLE MEAN BRING A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW
INTO THE AREA THURSDAY WITH MUCH COOLER AIR ALOFT AND AT THE
SURFACE MOVING OVERHEAD. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THE LOW...BUT
ITS ALSO SUGGESTING A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE MOVING IN. SNOW
LEVELS COULD GET BELOW PASS LEVELS STARTING THURSDAY NIGHT IF THE
GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT. THE MODELS SUGGEST THE UPPER LOW WILL
MOVE INTO NEVADA SATURDAY WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVING IN WHICH
COULD BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF DRY WEATHER. MP

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
     PZZ350-PZZ356-PZZ370-PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST MONDAY FOR PZZ350-PZZ356-
     PZZ370-PZZ376.

DW