Special Weather Statement, NWS Medford, OR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
248 PM PDT WED AUG 5 2009

.DISCUSSION...AN UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED JUST OFF THE WEST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY
TOWARD NORTHERN CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING A MUCH COOLER WEATHER PATTERN TO THE CWA THROUGH
FRIDAY.

IN THE MEANTIME, AN 80-100 KT JET ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
EXTENDS FROM THE BAY AREA NORTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHEASTERN OREGON AND
SOUTHERN IDAHO. THIS PUTS EAST SIDE AREAS OF OUR CWA IN THE LEFT
FRONT QUADRANT OF THE JET. THIS IS A FAVORABLE AREA FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE
MOVING NORTHWARD IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW SWINGS THROUGH. SO WE WENT
WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE THERE. CUMULUS BUILDUPS ARE ALSO
OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN SISKIYOU
COUNTY NORTHWARD INTO THE SISKIYOUS AND CASCADES. WHILE THERE CAN
BE THUNDERSTORMS IN THESE AREAS THROUGH THIS EVENING, THEY WILL BE
ISOLATED. STABLE MARINE AIR THAT PUSHED INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN THIS
MORNING HAS BEEN SCOURED OUT A BIT, BUT SOME LOW CLOUDS STILL HOLD
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND STRATUS TO
FILL BACK INTO COASTAL AREAS AND THE UMPQUA BASIN TONIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH INTO THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AND MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TOMORROW. AS A RESULT, MUCH COOLER AIR
WILL FILTER ACROSS THE CWA AND THE PATTERN WILL TURN MORE SHOWERY.
EVEN SO, WITH 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -18C, THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO INCLUDE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BENEATH THE UPPER LOW
AND ALSO OVER OUR EAST SIDE AREAS DUE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES
COOLER THAN TODAYS HIGHS.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT, THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
NEVADA/SOUTHEASTERN OREGON AND INTO WESTERN IDAHO. NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL RUSH INTO THE AREA BUT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE,
ESPECIALLY OVER EAST SIDE SECTIONS CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. THIS WILL LAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, THEN DRIER AIR
WILL MOVE IN ALOFT AND THINGS WILL DRY OUT LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
MOVE BY TO THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, BUT IT SHOULD
STAY DRY IN MOST AREAS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ALONG THE NORTH
COAST WHERE THERE MAY BE A SHOWER.

IN THE EXTENDED, WHILE THERE ARE MINOR DIFFERENCES, BOTH THE 12Z
OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE A GENERALLY DRY WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THERE IS
SOME INDICATION THAT A WEAK TROUGH MAY APPROACH THE COAST AT
MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST WILL SPREAD
INLAND INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN AGAIN OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY VFR ACROSS
THE REST OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING...EXCEPT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR FROM THE WESTERN SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS NORTH
TO THE CASCADES. ALSO, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE EAST SIDE THIS EVENING, MAINLY NORTH OF AN
ALTURAS TO KLAMATH FALLS LINE.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 2 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR ORZ617-ORZ623-
     ORZ624-ORZ625.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

SPILDE

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
206 PM PDT WED AUG 05 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 PM     HAIL             15 E BUTTE FALLS        42.54N 122.27W
08/02/2009  E1.00 INCH       KLAMATH            OR   PARK/FOREST SRVC

            FIRE CREW 4 MILES NORTH OF FOURMILE LAKE WAS OUT IN 3-4
            INCHES OF HEAVY RAIN AND REPORTED QUARTER SIZE HAIL BUT
            VERY LITTLE WIND.

&&

STOCKTON