Frost Advisory 8, NWS Medford, OR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
341 PM PST FRI FEB 13 2009

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE UPDATED THE WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW SPINNING OFF OF THE NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST
OREGON COASTS SPINS INLAND. THIS LOW HAS CAUSED SOME IMPRESSIVE
CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE
MOUNT SHASTA AREA RECEIVING 2 TO 4 INCHES SNOW THUS FAR SINCE THIS
MORNING. FOR TONIGHT HAVE CONTINUED ADVISORIES ACROSS CALIFORNIA
WITH NEAR WARNING AMOUNTS FOR THE MOUNT SHASTA AREA. ALSO HOISTED
AN ADVISORY FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FEET ALONG THE CURRY COUNTY
COAST AS RECENT MODEL TRENDS AND TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE INDICATE THE
SNOW LEVEL FALLING TO BELOW 1000 FEET AS PRECIPITATION ENDS.
ELSEWHERE...SO EXPECT THE LOW TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS SOUTHWEST
OREGON TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING...WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO.
THIS COULD BRING UP THE VALLEYS AND UP TO 2 INCHES IN THE
MOUNTAINS. AS IT IS WITH SHOWERS...SOME AREAS WILL SEE NOTHING AND
OTHERS WILL BE CLOSER TO THESE HIGHER END VALUES. PRECIPITATION
WILL TAPER OFF SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA.

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS VERY IMPRESSIVE ON MODEL
GUIDANCE...AND HAVE...THEREFORE...TRIED TO BUTTON UP ALL OF THE
WATCHES AND WARNING NEEDED FOR IT. THE MAIN IMPACT LOOKS TO BE
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS 1 TO AS
MUCH AS 3 INCHES OF WATER FALLS ACROSS CURRY AND SISKIYOU
COUNTIES. THE MODELS...UNFORTUNATELY...DO NOT COMPLETELY AGREE ON
THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. THE NAM12 CONFINES ALL
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO CURRY AND SISKIYOU COUNTIES AND BRING
IT IN LATER SATURDAY EVENING. THE GFS40 BRINGS IT IN BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND THEN SPREADS A GOOD DEAL OF IT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
EAST SIDE AND INTO THE OREGON SISKIYOUS AND CASCADES. THE ECMWF IS
SLOWER EVEN...HANGING THE LOW OFFSHORE LONGER. THE CANADIAN IS
VERY MUCH LIKE THE GFS40. FOR NOW HAVE ATTEMPTED TO BLEND THE
GFS04 AND THE NAM12 SOLUTIONS...AS THESE HAVE PERFORMED VERY WELL
OF LATE. BOTH MODELS INDICATE A PERIOD OF TIME SATURDAY NIGHT AND
OR SUNDAY WHEN 700 MB FLOW NEAR 50 KNOTS RIDES OVER THE SISKIYOUS.
THIS WOULD CERTAINLY BRING PLENTY OF PRECIPITATION NORTH INTO
OREGON AND...GIVEN THAT THE LAST COUPLE OF STORMS HAVE CAUSED SOME
TRICKLE OVER INTO THE SISKIYOUS...THIS SEEMS MOST PLAUSIBLE.

HAVE WORDED FOR WIND ADVISORY WINDS IN THE SHASTA VALLEY AND
EXPECT OTHER AREAS WILL GET GUSTY. THE MOUNTAINS WILL CERTAINLY
EXPERIENCE LOCALIZED BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES FROM ABOUT MOUNT
ASHLAND SOUTHWARD DURING THE SAID PERIOD. ALSO BELIEVE ADDITIONAL
ADVISORIES FOR SNOW AND POSSIBLY WIND WILL BE NEEDED SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

BEYOND SUNDAY THE MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LOCATION OF
THE LOW AND THE IMPULSES ALONG IT. THE FAVORED
GFS40...HOWEVER...INDICATES PROLONGED SOUTH FLOW. WHILE NOT AS
STRONG THIS WOULD LIKELY BE ENOUGH FOR THE MOUNT SHASTA AREA TO
AVERAGE 4 TO 8 INCHES EACH 6 HOUR PERIOD THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
STAY TUNED...AS THERE IS A LOT TO COME BEFORE WE GET TO THAT
POINT...ESPECIALLY IN CALIFORNIA. LUTZ

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXIST NORTH OF THE SISKIYOUS...WITH LIFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS ALONG THE SOUTHWEST OREGON COAST AND OVER CALIFORNIA.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT NORTH OF THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS. SATURDAY
EXPECT MVFR IN CALIFORNIA AND ALONG THE CURRY COUNTY COAST...WITH
VFR ELSEWHERE. A STRONG SYSTEM WILL CAUSE DEGRADATION TO
CONDITIONS AGAIN LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS THROUGHOUT...MOST SIGNIFICANT FURTHEST SOUTH.
BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM PST SATURDAY FOR ORZ024.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR .
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY FOR ORZ022.

CA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM PST SATURDAY FOR CAZ080-
     CAZ081-CAZ082-CAZ083.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR CAZ080-CAZ081.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO 4 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     CAZ082-CAZ083.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 PM
     PST THIS EVENING FOR PZZ356-PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PST SATURDAY
     FOR PZZ350-PZZ356-PZZ370-PZZ376.

BTL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
352 PM PST FRI FEB 13 2009

CAZ082-083-141200-
SOUTH CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY-
NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST SISKIYOU COUNTY-
352 PM PST FRI FEB 13 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW IS IN EFFECT FOR THE REST OF
FRIDAY. SEE WEATHER MESSAGE FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM PST
SATURDAY. A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW WILL BE IN EFFECT
BEGINNING 4 PM PST SATURDAY UNTIL 4 PM PST SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

CAZ080-081-141200-
WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY-CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY-
352 PM PST FRI FEB 13 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FEET
IS IN EFFECT FOR THE REST OF FRIDAY. SEE WEATHER MESSAGE FOR
SPECIFIC DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000
FEET IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM PST SATURDAY. A WINTER STORM WATCH
FOR HEAVY SNOW FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2500 FEET WILL BE IN EFFECT
BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

ORZ022-141200-
CURRY COUNTY COAST-
352 PM PST FRI FEB 13 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
OREGON.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FEET IS
IN EFFECT FOR THE REST OF FRIDAY. SEE WEATHER MESSAGE FOR SPECIFIC
DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000
FEET IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

ORZ024-141200-
EASTERN CURRY COUNTY AND JOSEPHINE COUNTY-
352 PM PST FRI FEB 13 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
OREGON.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FEET
IS IN EFFECT FOR THE REST OF FRIDAY. SEE WEATHER MESSAGE FOR
SPECIFIC DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000
FEET IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM PST SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

14

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
239 PM PST FRI FEB 13 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0238 PM     HEAVY SNOW       ESE MOUNT SHASTA        41.32N 122.31W
02/13/2009  M10.0 INCH       SISKIYOU           CA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION. SNOWING HEAVILY CURRENTLY
            AT RATES OF 1 INCH PER HOUR. VISIBILITY ROUGHLY 1/4 OF A
            MILE. SNOW SINCE NOON...2.5 INCHES.

&&

SPILDE

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