Flash Flood Watch 2, NWS Medford, OR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
115 PM PDT TUE JUN 2 2009

.DISCUSSION...02/12Z NAM/GFS IN.

LOOKS LIKE THE MEDFORD CWA IS IN FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY
DEVELOPING AT THIS TIME...MOSTLY OVER MODOC AND SISKIYOU COUNTIES.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER INDICATES A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MEDFORD CWA TODAY. THE 02/12Z MEDFORD
SOUNDING SHOWED 1.18 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER..AND MODIFYING THE
SOUNDING FOR THE AFTERNOON HIGH SHOWS A LIFTED INDEX OF -5.9 AND
A CAPE OF 2250 J/KG. THATS A RICH THUNDERSTORM ENVIRONMENT FOR
THIS AREA.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE MEDFORD CWA DUE
TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION RATES COMBINED WITH WEAK
STEERING WINDS ALOFT.

A CUTOFF LOW OFFSHORE NEAR 38N 130W AND A RIDGE OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN STATES WILL BOTH SLOWLY DRIFT EAST DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. IN BETWEEN SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVECT MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO THE AREA. THIS...COMBINED WITH
SURFACE HEATING...WILL PROVIDE THE NECESSARY INGREDIENTS TO COOK
UP SOME THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION...SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND
THE LOW WILL PERIODICALLY ENHANCE THE ACTIVITY.

THE TIMING OF THESE SHORT WAVES COORDINATE WELL WITH THE PEAK OF
DIURNAL SURFACE HEATING OVER THE MEDFORD CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND
WEDNESDAY. THE SHORT WAVE TODAY WILL MOVE INTO EXTREME NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AROUND THE TIME OF MAX SURFACE HEATING...AND MOST OF
THE INITIAL ACTIVITY IS IN THAT AREA. ON WEDNESDAY THE NEXT SHORT
WAVE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST OREGON AT ABOUT THE SAME TIME OF
DAY...SO MOST OF THE ACTION SHOULD BE EAST OF THE CASCADES THEN.
OTHER SHORT WAVES FOLLOW...SO THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY GO
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ON THURSDAY THE CUTOFF LOW WILL FINALLY MAKE IT TO THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS AND MOVE ONSHORE FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST DURING THIS INTERVAL. AN
INCREASE IN SHORT WAVE FREQUENCY AND INTENSITY SUGGESTS THAT
THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS WELL.

THE MODELS ARE PROGRESSIVELY SLOWING THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE
OFFSHORE CUTOFF LOW. THE LOW WILL MOVE ONSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT OR
FRIDAY...BUT IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW QUICKLY IT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST. THE ECMWF SOLUTION...THE FAVORED ONE AT THIS
TIME...INDICATES UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND FROM THE CASCADES EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...ALONG THE COAST...MVFR CIGS WITH ISOLATED IFR CIGS IN
MARINE STRATUS WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH ISOLATED MVFR CIGS WITH HIGHER TERRAIN
OBSCURED HAS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON THEN INCREASE DURING THE
EVENING. ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING
ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MARBLE SIZE
HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ024-ORZ025-
        ORZ026-ORZ027-ORZ028-ORZ029-ORZ030-ORZ031.

CA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ080-CAZ081-
        CAZ082-CAZ083-CAZ084-CAZ085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

15/17/10

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
127 PM PDT TUE JUN 2 2009

ORZ021-023-030800-
SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON COAST-CENTRAL DOUGLAS COUNTY-
127 PM PDT TUE JUN 2 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
OREGON.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BUBBLE UP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA.
SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY
THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO PROVIDE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

CAZ080>085-ORZ024>031-030800-
WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY-CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY-
SOUTH CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY-
NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST SISKIYOU COUNTY-
NORTHEAST SISKIYOU AND NORTHWEST MODOC COUNTIES-MODOC COUNTY-
EASTERN CURRY COUNTY AND JOSEPHINE COUNTY-
EASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY FOOTHILLS-JACKSON COUNTY-
SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES-
SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES-KLAMATH BASIN-
NORTHERN AND EASTERN KLAMATH COUNTY AND WESTERN LAKE COUNTY-
CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE COUNTY-
127 PM PDT TUE JUN 2 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA...SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON AND SOUTHWEST OREGON.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AS SLOW-
MOVING THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL THAT CAUSES SMALL
CREEKS TO BRIEFLY TOP THEIR BANKS OR CREATES URBAN STREET
FLOODING. IN ADDITION...SMALL TO MODERATE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE IN ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINS
OVER THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

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