Flash Flood Warning 3, NWS Medford, OR

000 
WGUS76 KMFR 130412
FFSMFR

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
912 PM PDT FRI JUN 12 2009

ORC029-130416-
/O.EXP.KMFR.FF.W.0003.000000T0000Z-090613T0415Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
JACKSON OR-
912 PM PDT FRI JUN 12 2009

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 915 PM PDT FOR CENTRAL
JACKSON COUNTY...

THE VERY HEAVIEST RAIN APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING IN THE 
MEDFORD...TALENT...PHOENIX...WHITE CITY AND EAGLE POINT AREA. 
MODERATE TO BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 1000 PM PDT WITH 
LOCAL SMALL STREAM AND URBAN FLOODING STILL LIKELY AS HEAVIER RUNOFF 
FROM THE RECENT STORMS ENCOUNTERING BLOCKED STORM DRAINS AND 
CULVERTS.

DO NOT ALLOW CHILDREN TO PLAY IN FLOODED STREAMS AND DRAINAGES 
CHILDREN CAN EASILY SLIP INTO DRAINAGES AND SMALL STREAMS AND 
BECOME TRAPPED UNDERWATER IN THE STRONG FLOW.

LAT...LON 4232 12313 4252 12294 4235 12261 4216 12279

$$

SVEN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
251 PM PDT FRI JUN 12 2009

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW CENTERED ALONG THE SOUTHERN OREGON AND
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST IS BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TODAY. AS THIS LOW SLOWLY MOVES INLAND
ON SATURDAY EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THEN THE
LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD...WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
DECREASING A LITTLE ON SUNDAY. BEHIND THIS LOW...ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES
IN FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY WITH AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SO EXPECT THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE ON MONDAY...DECREASING
ON TUESDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING. THE AREA
REMAINS UNDER A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH
DIFFLUENCE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. CURRENTLY SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE SPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE INLAND AREA WITH ACTIVITY MOST
CONCENTRATED NEAR THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS OF THE CASCADES AND INTO
AREAS TO THE EAST. PERIODS HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ALONG WITH POSSIBLE SMALL HAIL. THE HEAVY RAIN
COMBINED WITH A SLOW NORTH TO NORTHWEST MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS
WILL BRING A POSSIBILITY FOR LOCALIZED SMALL STREAM FLOODING OR
URBAN FLOODING.

ON SATURDAY...AS THE LOW SHIFTS INLAND OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
EXPECT THE FOCUS FOR HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY EAST...
MAINLY FROM THE CASCADES EASTWARD WITH THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS EXPECTED OVER MODOC AND LAKE COUNTIES...AND INTO KLAMATH
COUNTY. THE NAM INDICATES VORTICITY WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW AND UP
INTO MODOC AND LAKE COUNTIES DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...ALONG
WITH A MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE. THIS WILL BE A FAVORED AREA FOR
THUNDERSTORM AND SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. SATURDAY MORNING EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CASCADES
AND EASTWARD WITH SOME ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
WEST OF THE CASCADES. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE DURING
THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING.
THESE STORMS WILL AGAIN CARRY THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN...LOCALIZED SMALL STREAM AND URBAN FLOODING...AND SMALL HAIL.

ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT INLAND TO THE
EAST...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE OVER THE
AREA SOME AS THE MAIN ENERGY FOR THE SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA.
MONDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE OREGON
COAST BRINGING A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS TROUGH ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY JUNE 16TH THROUGH FRIDAY JUNE 19TH...
THERE IS MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD THROUGH THURSDAY...BECOMING LOW ON FRIDAY.

MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES ON WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING OVER THE AREA
ON TUESDAY...WITH THE 500MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER OR JUST WEST OF
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF HAWAII WILL
LIKELY CAUSE SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST SIDE EARLY IN
THE PERIOD. ON TUESDAY LINGERING INSTABILITY FROM THE CASCADES EAST
WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM ABOUT MOUNT
SHASTA NORTHEASTWARD. ON WEDNESDAY THE HIGH SHOULD EXTEND INLAND
ENOUGH TO PUSH INSTABILITY SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE AREA. THURSDAY LOOKS SIMILAR TO THURSDAY.
ALTOGETHER...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IS LIKELY TO PUSH
TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.

BY FRIDAY MODELS DIFFER ON THE PATTERN A BIT MORE. WHILE BOTH SHOW
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...THE GFS
INDICATES THIS RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE AREA...WHILE THE ECMWF
BRINGS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME HAVE FAVORED THE GFS
SOLUTION...BUT...IF THE ECMWF ENDS UP BEING MORE
CORRECT...PRECIPITATION WILL NEED TO INTRODUCED INTO THE FORECAST
WITH THE MOST LIKELY RESULT BEING A RENEWED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER AT LEAST THE EAST SIDE.

LUTZ/PETRUCELLI

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST...EXPECTED TO DECREASE
TO MVFR IN LOW CIGS DURING THE EVENING WITH ISOLATED IFR CIGS
DEVELOPING LATE IN THE EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. MVFR CIGS
WILL SPREAD INTO THE UMPQUA VALLEY OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. INLAND...LOCAL IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO VISIBILITY IN
HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS MAY ALSO BRING SMALL
HAIL. THEN LATE THIS EVENING EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH
LOCAL MVFR IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ024-ORZ026.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

CC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1017 AM PDT FRI JUN 12 2009

ORZ024-026-131300-
EASTERN CURRY COUNTY AND JOSEPHINE COUNTY-JACKSON COUNTY-
1017 AM PDT FRI JUN 12 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
OREGON.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WITH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4PM THROUGH
THIS EVENING...SEE PRODUCT FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE HEAVY RAIN CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH
AFTERNOON SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE...

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
534 PM PDT FRI JUN 12 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0529 PM     HEAVY RAIN       5 SE SELMA              42.24N 123.53W
06/12/2009  M0.65 INCH       JOSEPHINE          OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            0.65 MEASURED IN A HALF AN HOUR. VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH A
            FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER.

&&

LUTZ