Special Weather Statement, NWS Miami, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
215 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2009

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW-MID LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE FL PENINSULA...WITH TROUGHING OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND NERN GULF OF MEXICO. AT THE UPPER
LEVELS...THE REGION REMAINS ON THE SERN FLANK OF EASTERN CONUS
TROUGHING WITH A SLOWLY WESTWARD ADVANCING UPPER LOW NEAR EASTERN
CUBA. SUBSIDENCE AND MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ON THE 12Z MIAMI SOUNDING
APPEARS TO BE WINNING THE BATTLE WITH THE SEA BREEZES ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA EXCEPT FOR THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION.
INDEED...SAHARAN AIR LAYER ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE REGION OF
SAHARAN DUST COMING ACROSS THE AREA...AND THE SKY IS VERY HAZY
OUTSIDE THE OFFICE HERE IN WESTERN MIAMI AS A RESULT. HAVE TRIMMED
BACK POPS FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AS A RESULT OF THE STABILITY.

MODELS ARE SHOWING A BREAK IN THE LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGING TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW AS A PIECE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE NERN GULF/NCNTRL FL
PENINSULA BREAKS OFF AND MOVES SW INTO THE GULF AS AN INVERTED
TROUGH ON FRIDAY. OVERALL...THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE RESULTANT
CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND CONVECTION WILL BE DRIVEN BY SEA
BREEZES AND STEERED BY THE SWRLY FLOW IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS.
MODELS REALLY ARE NOT HINTING AT MUCH IMPACT FROM THE UPPER LOW TO
THE SE TOMORROW...HOWEVER THERE IS CLEARLY STILL A VERY LARGE
STABLE LAYER OF SAHARAN DUST COMING ACROSS THE CWA...AND A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR ROTATING WEST TOWARDS US
ON THE NW FRINGE OF THE UPPER LOW. THIS LEADS ME TO BELIEVE THAT
MAVMOS POPS ARE TOO HIGH TOMORROW...AND WILL FCST POPS CLOSER TO
THE MET. THE CAVEAT HOWEVER IS THE MID LEVELS COOL TO -10C OR
SO...SO IT IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW EXACTLY THESE COMPETING
FACTORS WILL BALANCE OUT.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE
AXIS WILL SHIFT JUST NORTH OF THE AREA LEAVING SOUTH FL IN
A DEEP ERLY FLOW. THIS WILL SHIFT THE FOCUS OF STORM CHANCES TO
THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND GULF COAST...AND THINGS COULD BE ENHANCED
THERE EVEN MORE IF A GULF COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. A MOISTURE
SURGE AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED ERN CUBA UPPER
LOW COULD ALSO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS ADVERTISED BY THE
GFS...AND THIS COULD INCREASE STORM COVERAGE SOME AS WELL.

THE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...SO SIMILAR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
LOWEST STORM CHANCES EAST AND HIGHEST WEST. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
ALSO KEEP NIGHTTIME READINGS WARMEST EAST...AND COULD LEAD TO THE
CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR STORM EVEN AT NIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN METRO
AREAS THIS PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS SHOULD EXIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AT LESS THAN 10 KTS
BECOMING ESE AT 10KTS SAT/SUN. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 4 FT OR LESS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO CONCERNS THIS PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  90  75  89 / 20 40 30 30
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  91  79  90 / 20 30 20 30
MIAMI            79  91  78  90 / 20 30 20 30
NAPLES           79  91  76  92 / 20 30 20 40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION/MARINE...STRASSBERG
AVIATION/FIRE WX...BNB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
213 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2009

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-100100-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
213 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2009

...A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE INTERIOR AND NORTHEAST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...
...SCATTERED STORMS ALL SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON...
...HEAT INDICES NEAR 105 INTERIOR AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG OVER LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREA AND THE NORTHEAST METRO AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY IMPACTS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL
GUSTY WINDS, SMALL HAIL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. IF YOU SEE LIGHTNING OR HEAR THUNDER, MOVE INSIDE
UNTIL THE STORMS HAVE PASSED BY.

WIND: THE STRONGEST STORMS TODAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND
GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AND NORTHEAST COAST
METRO AREAS.

HAIL: THE MID TO UPPER ATMOSPHERE HAS COOL THIS MORNING WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR THE STRONGEST STORMS TO PRODUCE HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE
MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AND NORTHEAST COAST METRO AREAS.

TEMPERATURES: HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 90S OVER THE INTERIOR
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH HIGH HUMIDITIES. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR THE HEAT INDICES TO BE AROUND 105 THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
INTERIOR AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WIDESPREAD SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED, HOWEVER
INDIVIDUAL SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT HIGH WIND, HAIL AND
FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MIAMI.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

BAXTER

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