Special Weather Statement, NWS Miami, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
620 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2009

.UPDATE...

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR GLADES...HENDRY AND COLLIER TIL 7
PM EDT....

STRONG SQUALL CONTINUES TO PRESS SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF
FORECAST THIS AREA...WITH AREAS TO THE WEST OF A LINE FROM LAKE
OKEECHOBEE TO FLAMINGO MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED BY STRONG/SEVERE
CONVECTION. HAVE UPDATE GRIDS TO INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY CATEGORY
THROUGH EARLY EVENING FOR THIS REGION...AND INCLUDED MENTION OF
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES.
UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN ISSUED.

70/DD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 217 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2009/

DISCUSSION...MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA CONTINUES TO BE UNDER A
NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN A LARGE M/U LVL HIGH OVER NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEX AND A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE ATLANTIC/NRN BAHAMAS.

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED ON
THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL TEND TO LIMIT SHWRS/TSTMS. THE DRIVING
FACTORS WL CONTINUE TO BE SEA/LAKE BREEZES CONVERGENCE AND DIURNAL
HEATING. WHILE THE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
STEER THE STORMS TOWARD INTERIOR/WESTERN AREAS. WL INDICATE
HIGHEST POPS OVER INTERIOR AND WEST COAST AREAS WITH ISOLATED POPS
EAST COAST. IN ADDITION...THE SUBSIDENCE AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
WILL RESULT IN RATHER HOT CONDITIONS WITH MAX AFTERNOON TEMPS
REACHING THE UPPER 90S BOTH DAYS.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WILL DEFINITELY TAKE
PLACE DURING THIS PERIOD AS THE UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES WEST AND
A MID/UPPER LVL MID-LATITUDE TROUGH/LOW DIGS SOUTHWEST ALONG THE
EASTERN SEA BOARD TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS TROUGH WILL, NO
ONLY PUSH A BOUNDARY SOUTH ALONG THE PENINSULA TOWARD MAINLAND
SOUTH FLORIDA, BUT WILL DESTABILIZE THE LOCAL ATMOSPHERE. THE
STEERING FLOW WILL ALSO CHANGE TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AND THIS WILL
PUT THE EASTERN ZONES AGAIN IN WETTER CONDITIONS.

MARINE...A LIGHT TO FRESH FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE OVER ALL THE LOCAL
WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT SEAS TO BE MOSTLY AOB 2 FEET.
OF COURSE, BOTH SEAS AND WINDS WILL BE HIGHER IN ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. SFC WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WEST-SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE
TO NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN SEAS.

FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  75  91  75  91 / 40 20 10 20
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  90  76  90 / 30 20 10 20
MIAMI            78  92  79  91 / 30 20 10 20
NAPLES           75  91  75  90 / 60 30 20 30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ063-
     FLZ066-FLZ069-FLZ070.

AM...NONE.
GM...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ656.

&&

LONG TERM...60/BD
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...70/DD

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