Special Weather Statement, NWS Miami, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
256 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2009

.DISCUSSION...
OVERALL...EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO THE PAST SEVERAL AFTERNOONS
TO OCCUR ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ONCE AGAIN TODAY...WITH EARLY
AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ENHANCED CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AFTERNOON CONVECTION SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE FOCUSED ALONG
INLAND MOVING ATLANTIC/GULF COAST SEA BREEZES AND LAKE BREEZE...
WITH NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW ALLOWING SHOWERS/STORMS
THAT DEVELOP IN THIS REGION TO SPREAD SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD.
HOWEVER...ONE SUBTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS DAYS IS THAT THE LOWER
/MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS HAS APPARENTLY SHIFTED A BIT FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH TODAY...PLACING THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA IN A LIGHT
WESTERLY STEERING FLOW. FOR THIS REASON...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS WELL.

A POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL ENTER THE
FORECAST PICTURE TONIGHT...AS SHORT TERM MODELS NOW SUGGEST THAT
A WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- CURRENTLY SEEN IN
WATER VAPOR DATA ACROSS ALABAMA/GEORGIA -- WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD
AROUND NORTHEASTERN FLANK OF MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS. NOT ONLY WILL THIS FEATURE OFFER MORE LARGE SCALE
SUPPORT FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTIONS NECESSARY TO MAINTAIN
AFTERNOON CONVECTION...BUT ITS APPROACH WILL ALSO BACK STEERING
FLOW TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...ALLOWING ANY EVENING/NOCTURNAL
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO AFFECT THE REGION
FROM LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO THE PALM BEACH COAST...AND WILL LEAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THIS AREA. ALTHOUGH ALL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TOMORROW...THE PRESENCE OF ITS REMNANTS WILL
RESULT IN LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT...AND A CONTINUATION OF NNW STEERING
FLOW WILL LIKELY MEAN A MORE ACTIVE DAY OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST OF THE PENINSULA. ASIDE FROM
LINGERING ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY EVENING...EXPECT GENERALLY QUIET
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR A
REPEAT PERFORMANCE ON MONDAY...AS ANOTHER WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVE MAY
MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA IN DIFFLUENT N/NW FLOW ALOFT.

WILL BE MAKING NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AT THIS TIME...AS GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIMILAR
PATTERNS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF/SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE PACIFIC COAST.
THIS MAY SERVE TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES DURING THIS PERIOD...AS
SUBSIDENT INFLUENCES OF THE RIDGE MAY BE DIMINISHED...AND STRONG
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BRING ADDITIONAL IMPULSES ALOFT
SOUTHWARD OVER THE AREA. TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...THE GFS
DEVELOPS A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
NORTHEAST U.S. AND CONSEQUENTLY MAINTAINS HIGHER RAIN CHANCES FOR
SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH THE ECMWF INDICATING MORE RIDGING REMAINING
ACROSS THE REGION. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAS THIS TREND
ESTABLISHED...AND HAVE NO REASON TO MAKE ANY CHANGES AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF
THE MARINE FORECAST WILL RANGE FROM SOUTH AROUND 10 KNOTS IN THE
ATLANTIC...TO WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF. THIS WILL RESULT IN PREVAILING SEAS OF 2-3 FEET
IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND 1-2 FEET IN THE GULF...OUTSIDE OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WHICH COULD OCCUR AT ANY TIME. AS
MENTIONED BY PREVIOUS FORECASTER...LIGHT WINDS IN THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE WILL PROMOTE AN ENHANCED THREAT FOR WATERSPOUTS ALONG
ANY CLOUD CONVERGENCE BANDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO FALL INTO THE
40-45 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR PENINSULA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE
UPPER 90S LEAD TO DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  92  77  92 / 20 30 30 30
FORT LAUDERDALE  81  92  81  92 / 10 40 20 30
MIAMI            80  92  80  92 / 10 40 20 30
NAPLES           76  89  76  89 / 10 20 10 20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

LONG TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...04/AT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
933 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2009

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-140900-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
933 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2009

...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTERIOR/WEST AREAS...
...A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY OCCUR WITH SOME STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COAST OR INTERIOR,
HOWEVER AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM ACROSS THE INTERIOR MAY PRODUCE
SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.

WATERSPOUTS: THE WINDS IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE ALONG WITH LINGERING BOUNDARIES WILL HELP TO POSSIBLY PRODUCE
A FEW WATERSPOUTS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

WIND: THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL PRODUCE BRIEF WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 50
AND 60 MPH ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

HAIL: HAIL UP TO PENNY SIZE IN DIAMETER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MOST LIKELY
ACROSS INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA.

FLOODING: URBAN FLOODING MAY BECOME A PROBLEM WITH SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS THIS
AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE DAILY THROUGH NEXT WEEK. LIGHTNING
STRIKES, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE
LINGERING THREAT OF WATERSPOUTS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC DUE TO LIGHT WINDS IN THE LOWER
AND MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS INTERIOR LOCATIONS.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
333 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2009

FLZ069-070-132030-
COASTAL COLLIER COUNTY FL-INLAND COLLIER COUNTY FL-
333 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL COLLIER COUNTY...

AT 332 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR GOLDEN GATE ESTATES...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT...

GOLDEN GATE ESTATES...
INTERSECTION I-75 AND EVERGLADES BLVD...
WEST TOLL GATE ON ALLIGATOR ALLEY...

AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH...PEA-SIZED
HAIL...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...OR A COMBINATION OF THESE ARE POSSIBLE.
LIGHTNING IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED KILLER IN FLORIDA. TREES
AND OPEN SHELTERS OFFER NO PROTECTION. WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 50 MPH CAN
DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL
OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

RESIDENTS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM SHOULD REMAIN ON THE ALERT FOR
ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

LAT...LON 2605 8149 2606 8170 2623 8164 2623 8153
TIME...MOT...LOC 1933Z 004DEG 4KT 2619 8160

BAXTER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
344 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2009

FLZ071-072-132015-
INLAND BROWARD COUNTY FL-METRO BROWARD COUNTY FL-
344 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE...

AT 340 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT
THUNDERSTORMS WERE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING NEAR PARKLAND AND
SUNRISE...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT...
TAMARAC
DAVIE
PARKLAND...

AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

THE PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING AND UP TO
PEA SIZED HAIL. LIGHTNING IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED KILLER IN
FLORIDA. TREES AND OPEN SHELTERS OFFER NO PROTECTION. SEEK SHELTER IN
A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

LAT...LON 2608 8022 2610 8034 2633 8028 2632 8016
TIME...MOT...LOC 1940Z 201DEG 7KT 2631 8023

JR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
350 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2009

FLZ066-070-132045-
HENDRY FL-INLAND COLLIER COUNTY FL-
350 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST HENDRY AND NORTHEAST
COLLIER COUNTY...

AT 349 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF BIG CYPRESS SEMINOLE INDIAN
RESERVATION...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT...

BIG CYPRESS SEMINOLE INDIAN RESERVATION...

AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH...PEA-SIZED
HAIL...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...OR A COMBINATION OF THESE ARE POSSIBLE.
LIGHTNING IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED KILLER IN FLORIDA. TREES
AND OPEN SHELTERS OFFER NO PROTECTION. WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 50 MPH CAN
DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL
OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

RESIDENTS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM SHOULD REMAIN ON THE ALERT FOR
ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

LAT...LON 2618 8089 2619 8121 2648 8109 2647 8091
TIME...MOT...LOC 1951Z 007DEG 9KT 2638 8102

BAXTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
354 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     HAIL             6 W BOCA RATON          26.36N 80.20W
06/13/2009  E0.88 INCH       PALM BEACH         FL   PUBLIC

            NICKEL SIZED HAIL WAS REPORTED IN WEST BOCA RATON

0340 PM     HAIL             6 W BOCA RATON          26.36N 80.20W
06/13/2009  E0.88 INCH       PALM BEACH         FL   PUBLIC

            NICKEL SIZED HAIL COVERING A RESIDENTAL YARD NEAR THE
            INTERSECTION OF CLINTMOORE AND LION ROAD.

0340 PM     HAIL             6 W BOCA RATON          26.36N 80.20W
06/13/2009  E1.00 INCH       PALM BEACH         FL   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL WAS OBSERVED IN WEST BOCA RATON ALONG
            441 AT THE INTERSECTION NEAR CLINTMOORE

&&

CARACOZZA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
404 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     HAIL             PLANTATION              26.12N 80.25W
06/13/2009  E0.88 INCH       BROWARD            FL   PUBLIC

            NICKEL SIZED HAIL WAS REPORTED IN PLANTATION NEAR THE
            INTERSECTION OF SUNRISE BLVD AND FLAMINGO ROAD.

&&

CARACOZZA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
416 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2009

FLZ066-067-070-071-132100-
HENDRY FL-INLAND PALM BEACH COUNTY FL-INLAND COLLIER COUNTY FL-
INLAND BROWARD COUNTY FL-
416 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE BIG CYPRESS SEMINOLE INDIAN
RESERVATION AREA...

AT 413 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES SOUTH OF
ROTENBERGER WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT AREA TO 3 MILES WEST OF BIG CYPRESS
SEMINOLE INDIAN RESERVATION TO 8 MILES EAST OF INTERSECTION ALLIGATOR
ALLEY AND SR 29  THESE STORMS WERE NEARLY STATIONARY.

THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT...

BIG CYPRESS ACCESS AREAS OFF ALLIGATOR ALLEY...
BIG CYPRESS SEMINOLE INDIAN RESERVATION...
I-75 IN EASTERN COLLIER AND FAR WESTERN BROWARD COUNTIES...

AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH...PEA-SIZED
HAIL...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...OR A COMBINATION OF THESE ARE POSSIBLE.
LIGHTNING IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED KILLER IN FLORIDA. TREES
AND OPEN SHELTERS OFFER NO PROTECTION. WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 50 MPH CAN
DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL
OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

RESIDENTS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE ALERT
FOR ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

LAT...LON 2614 8074 2615 8098 2615 8114 2616 8130
      2640 8127 2639 8075
TIME...MOT...LOC 2015Z 347DEG 2KT 2631 8082 2630 8102
          2616 8121

BAXTER