Small Craft Advisory 25, NWS Miami, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
AM EDT TUE APR 21 2009

DISCUSSION...LAPS ANALYSIS INDICATES FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM
N FLA INTO W CENTRAL FLA AND OFF OF THE SW FLA COAST W OF APF. AS
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO WRAP UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THE UPPER
TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...AS
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG JET STREAKS DIVING SE OVER THE RIDGE
OVER THE W INTO THE TROUGH...THE FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY MAINLY W TO
E ACROSS S FLA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO W ALONG THE W COAST BEFORE
SUNRISE...PROGRESS EASTWARD THOUGH THE DAY SHIFTING FROM SW TO W
ALONG THE E COAST BY NOON TIME. SATL LOOPS ALSO INDICATE A SECONDARY
FRONT OVER THE N FLA AND THIS SECONDARY FRONT ESSENTIALLY CATCHES UP
TO THE FORMER QUITE RAPIDLY...SHIFTING WINDS NW THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE AREA.

FOR THE SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THU...RADAR LOOPS INDICATE
LIMITED SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LIMITED RAINFALL
EXPECTED ACROSS S FLA. ACTIVITY SHOULD END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...W COAST BEFORE SUNRISE AND AROUND NOON E COAST. GUSTY DRY
WESTERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND INTO
THIS EVENING. POPS LOWERED TO 20% ACROSS THE CWA AND ENDING FROM W
TO E AS FRONT PROGRESSES. LITTLE COOLER W COAST DUE TO FLOW OFF OF
THE GULF BUT LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS INTERIOR AND E TODAY WITH MID
80S POSSIBLE. COOLER TONIGHT WITH TEMPS FALLING TO THE MID 50S NW
INTERIOR TO THE LOWER 60S SE COAST. SLIGHTLY COOLER WED WITH MIN
TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER E COAST WED NIGHT AS EASTERLY FLOW OFF OF THE
ATLC HAS DEVELOPED. MAX TEMPS THU IN THE 80S WITH POSSIBLE MID TO
UPPER 80S INTERIOR AND W.

.EXTENDED PERIOD...FRI THROUGH MON...DRY AND GETTING GRADUALLY
WARMER THU AND FRI. PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW ABOUT THE ATLC HIGH
PULLS ENOUGH MOISTURE THAT AN INCREASE OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE SAT THRU
MON.

&&
.MARINE...WINDS VEERING SW TO NW THROUGH THE DAY AND NW AND BECOMING
15 KTS ATLC WATERS. AN ADVISORY NEEDED FOR ATLC WATERS LATE TONIGHT
INTO WED. WINDS DECREASE A BIT WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU...BECOMING
EASTERLY THU INTO FRI AND GRADUALLY INCREASING WITH CAUTION ATLC
WATERS OFF OF MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES POSSIBLE THU NIGHT AND
POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&
.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECTED LACK OF RAIN WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE PLUS
FALLING DEW POINTS...MAYBE ENHANCED BY DRY AIR ALOFT MIXING DOWN
...LEADS TO WIDESPREAD RH VALUES IN THE 30S EXCEPT FOR THE W COAST
AS WESTERLY WINDS ADVECT IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WILL GO WITH A RED
FLAG FOR GLADES AND HENDRY BUT SEVERAL OTHER INTERIOR COUNTIES ON
THE CUSP OF BEING ADDED AS WELL WHICH WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY. NW
INTERIOR COUNTIES MAY HAVE CRITICAL RH VALUES WED AFTERNOON AS WELL.

&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  85  61  83  65 / 20 -  -  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  85  62  83  68 / 20 -  -  10
MIAMI            85  62  84  67 / 20 -  -  10
NAPLES           80  59  82  62 / 10 -  -   -

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FLZ063-066 FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM TODAY.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AMZ650-651-670-671 TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EDT.
GM...NONE.
&&

LONG TERM...15/JR
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...54/BNB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
846 PM EDT MON APR 20 2009

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-211000-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
846 PM EDT MON APR 20 2009

...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS OVERNIGHT, WITH THE MAIN
THREAT BEING A FEW CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING STRIKES.

NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY, WITH CHANCES FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DECREASING FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE END OF
THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING
THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

STRASSBERG