Small Craft Advisory 24, NWS Miami, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
127 AM EDT THU APR 16 2009

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS
ACROSS ALL OF S FLA ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL
SCT DECKS. LIGHT DRAINAGE FLOW ALONG BOTH COASTS WITH OFFSHORE
FLOW. WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE NE AT THE E CST TERMINALS AFT 14-16Z
INCREASING TO ABOVE 12KT AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. WEST COAST
SEA BREEZE WILL SET UP AT KAPF AFT 16Z AND BACK TO OFFSHORE FLOW
AFT 02Z.

30/KOB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 823 PM EDT WED APR 15 2009/

DISCUSSION...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR SOUTH PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA DUE TO THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 741 PM EDT WED APR 15 2009/

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND THU OVER ALL
TERMINALS. COLD FRNT OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF S. FLORIDA TONIGHT
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH TO FLORIDA STRAITS BY THU. LIGHT NW-W
WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL OVERNIGHT THEN SHIFT TO NE BY MID-MORNING THU
INCREASING IN SPEED TO ARND 15 KTS AND HIGHER GUSTS BY AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 221 PM EDT WED APR 15 2009/

DISCUSSION...WEAK COLD FRONT ATTM IS HARD TO FIND. BEST GUESS IS
FROM THE NORTHERN LAKE TO THE CHARLOTTE HARBOR WITH TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS DECREASING AS ONE GOES NORTH. ALL PRECIP SO FAR IS FROM
COLLIER AND BROWARD COUNTY SOUTHWARD. A FEW STATIONS DID DEVELOP A
SEABREEZE ESPECIALLY AS SEEN ON RADAR AND SURFACE OBS OVER
EASTERN BROWARD COUNTY. A STRONG STORM DID MOVE THROUGH MIAMI
BEACH JUST A WHILE AGO WITH ONLY A FEW STRIKES AND NO REPORTS OF
HIGH WIND. DO EXPECT TSTMS TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN BROWARD COUNTY
WITH THE SEABREEZE PUSHING IN. QUESTION IS WILL IT MOVE BACK EAST
BEFORE ANY DEVELOPMENT OCCURS. ANYWAY, FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON, DO EXPECT SOME STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS. THERE STILL IS
DRY AIR ALOFT AND DESPITE THE CLOUDS, TEMPS HAVE MANAGED TO CREEP
UP TO NEAR EXPECTED LEVELS. DID NOT CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS HWO
UPDATE FOR NOW. AFTER THE FRONT GOES THROUGH LATER TONIGHT, TEMPS WILL
BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEAK WITH
NO REAL CHANCE OF RAIN. NEXT FRONT IS EXPECTED THROUGH SOUTH
FLORIDA SOMETIME TUESDAY. MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES CARVE OUT A LONG
WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EAST U.S. AND THIS FRONT SEEMS TO BE A BIT
STRONGER THAN THE FIRST ONE TONIGHT. MEXMOS DOESNT SEEM TO SHOW
TOO MUCH COOL AIR BUT THIS IS FAIRLY FAR OUT AND IS LEANING TOWARDS
CLIMO ATTM.

MARINE...WINDS WILL TURN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT TO THE NORTH
THURSDAY AS THE FRONT FINALLY CLEARS SOUTH OF THE AREA...THEN NE
TO E AND INCREASE LATE THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY...LEADING
TO BUILDING SEAS ESPECIALLY IN THE GULF STREAM. STILL LOOKS LIKE A
SWELL TO AFFECT THE PALM BEACH WATERS BEGINNING FRIDAY EVENING...
PERHAPS TO 3 TO 4 FT AS IT LOOKS RIGHT NOW BUT DIMINISHING AS THE
WEEKEND ENDS.

FIRE WEATHER...THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA.
FORECASTING A FEW HOURS OF RHS FALLING BELOW 35 PERCENT NW
INTERIOR FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 RHS ARE
EVEN EXPECTED FRIDAY...WITH MODERATION THEREAFTER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  82  68  78  67 / -  -  10 -
FORT LAUDERDALE  84  70  80  68 / -  -  -  -
MIAMI            85  69  81  68 / -  -  -  -
NAPLES           82  64  84  62 / -  -  -  -

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
810 PM EDT WED APR 15 2009

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-161515-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
810 PM EDT WED APR 15 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH NORTHEAST WIND INCREASING ALONG WITH
A SMALL NORTHEAST SWELL AFFECTING THE PALM BEACH COUNTY COAST.
THIS WILL RESULT IN ROUGH SEAS OVER THE GULF STREAM WATERS FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY ALONG WITH AN INCREASED THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS AT
THE ATLANTIC BEACHES.

IN ADDITION, ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.