Severe Thunderstorm Warning 54, NWS Miami, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
311 PM EDT FRI JUN 5 2009

...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTERIOR AND EAST COAST METRO AREAS...

.DISCUSSION...
THE SHORT WAVE THAT WAS JUST WEST OF SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS
MORNING HAS MOVED INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THIS
AFTERNOON HELPING TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
INTERIOR AND EAST COAST METRO AREAS ALONG THE WEST AND EAST COAST
SEA BREEZES. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE LIKELY POPS THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST METRO AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE
THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS WILL REMAIN MAINLY DRY.

THE STORMS SHOULD SLOWLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING OVER THE CWA AS
THE HEATING OF THE DAY IS LOST. BUT ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATING
AROUND THE TROUGH OF LOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE MOVING
TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT. SO WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF POPS
FOR THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS TONIGHT...AND CHANCE OF POPS FOR
THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS THIS EVENING TAPERING DOWN TO SLIGHT
CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THE SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON
SATURDAY...AS THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND
THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE STEERING FLOW
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE CWA THIS WEEKEND...AS FOCUS THE
NUMEROUS POPS OVER THE EAST COAST TAPERING DOWN TO SCATTERED OVER
THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS.

AT THE SAME TIME...THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
CONTINUE TO COOL TO AROUND -10 TO -11C TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
THIS WILL CONTINUE THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS IN THE HWO AND IN THE ZONES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.EXTENDED FORECAST...

THE LATEST GFS MODEL HAS WEAKEN THE LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA AND SHIFTED IT TO THE EAST INTO EASTERN CUBA BY END
OF NEXT WEEK...WHILE REST OF THE LONG RANGE MODELS KEEPS A WEAK
LOW IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS. SO WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE CWA FROM THE
ATLANTIC WATERS FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL SHIFT THE
STEERING FLOW BACK TO A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION OVER THE CWA. THIS
WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO
AREAS FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION THIS
WEEKEND BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
SPEEDS WILL ALSO REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KNOTS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SO THE SEAS IN THE GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS WILL REMAIN
BELOW 4 FEET THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SO BOATING CONDITIONS SHOULD
BE GOOD OUTSIDE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE THE 35 PERCENT
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THIS WEEKEND...DUE TO THE DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE IN PLACE. SO NO PROBLEMS WITH THE FIRE WEATHER PRODUCT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  89  72  87 / 50 60 30 50
FORT LAUDERDALE  73  88  73  86 / 50 60 30 50
MIAMI            73  89  73  87 / 50 60 30 40
NAPLES           74  87  73  88 / 40 50 20 40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

LONG TERM...54/BNB
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...18/GR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
435 PM EDT FRI JUN 5 2009

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-060600-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
435 PM EDT FRI JUN 5 2009

...NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...
...FREQUENT LIGHTNING/LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, LARGE
HAIL, AND WIND GUSTS FROM 50 TO 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
MOST INTENSE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, AND MAINLY OVER THE EAST COAST
METRO AND INTERIOR LOCATIONS.

WIND: WIND GUSTS OF AROUND 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY OVER THE EAST COAST AND INTERIOR THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

HAIL: HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY OVER THE INTERIOR AND ALONG THE EAST COAST METRO
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

FLOODING: A TRAINING OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN ANY ONE PLACE MAY PRODUCE
URBAN FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS, AND MAINLY
ALONG THE EAST COAST METRO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EACH DAY. A STRONG MID TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WILL DIG INTO THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH SATURDAY, MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
INSTABILITY ALONG WITH AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE WIND PROFILE, TO
ALLOW FOR THE LIKELIHOOD OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN SATURDAY.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.
THE FOCUS OF STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONS AS WELL
AS THE EAST COAST METROPOLITAN AREAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
209 PM EDT FRI JUN 5 2009

FLZ072>074-172-173-051845-
METRO BROWARD COUNTY FL-METROPOLITAN MIAMI DADE FL-INLAND MIAMI-
DADE FL-COASTAL BROWARD COUNTY FL-COASTAL MIAMI-DADE COUNTY FL-
209 PM EDT FRI JUN 5 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST MIAMI DADE AND SOUTHEAST
BROWARD COUNTIES...

AT 206 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR HIALEAH GARDENS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15
MPH.

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT...

HIALEAH GARDENS...
HIALEAH...
MIAMI LAKES...
MIRAMAR...
SAINT THOMAS UNIVERSITY...
CAROL CITY...

AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH...PEA-SIZED
HAIL...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...FUNNEL CLOUDS OR A COMBINATION OF THESE
ARE POSSIBLE. LIGHTNING IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED KILLER IN
FLORIDA. TREES AND OPEN SHELTERS OFFER NO PROTECTION. WIND GUSTS OF UP
TO 50 MPH CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND
UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

RESIDENTS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM SHOULD REMAIN ON THE ALERT FOR
ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

LAT...LON 2579 8035 2589 8045 2619 8017 2593 8012
TIME...MOT...LOC 1807Z 233DEG 14KT 2588 8033

GR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
355 PM EDT FRI JUN 5 2009

FLZ067-068-168-052030-
INLAND PALM BEACH COUNTY FL-METRO PALM BEACH COUNTY FL-
COASTAL PALM BEACH COUNTY FL-
355 PM EDT FRI JUN 5 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF PALM BEACH COUNTY...

AT 349 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF
LION COUNTRY SAFARI TO 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF LOXAHATCHEE NATIONAL
WILDLIFE REFUGE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

THERE ARE MORE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING EAST OF BELLE GLADE
AND WEST OF THE NATIONAL LIFE REFUGE...THEREFORE MOTORISTS SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION.

THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT...

DELRAY BEACH...
ABERDEEN...
BOYNTON BEACH...
NORTH PALM BEACH GENERAL AIRPORT...
GOLDEN LAKES...
GLEN RIDGE...

AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

LAT...LON 2654 8004 2649 8005 2645 8005 2640 8006
      2639 8006 2645 8068 2668 8066 2691 8009
      2669 8005 2668 8004 2662 8003 2655 8003
TIME...MOT...LOC 1951Z 223DEG 20KT 2677 8029 2658 8026

ERA

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