Red Flag Warning 36, NWS Miami, FL

000 
WWUS82 KMFL 271810
RFWMFL

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
210 PM EDT MON APR 27 2009

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR GLADES...HENDRY...AND COLLIER
COUNTIES UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING DUE TO A COMBINATION OF RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FALLING TO 35 PERCENT...20 FOOT WINDS NEAR 15 MPH...AND
HIGH DISPERSION INDICES...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FOR GLADES...HENDRY...AND INLAND
COLLIER COUNTIES TUESDAY FOR POSSIBLY 4 OR MORE HOURS WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BELOW 35 PERCENT AND HIGH DISPERSION INDICES...

FLZ063-066-070-281000-
/O.NEW.KMFL.FW.A.0028.090428T1700Z-090428T2300Z/
/O.EXT.KMFL.FW.W.0036.000000T0000Z-090427T2200Z/
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND COLLIER-
210 PM EDT MON APR 27 2009

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING... 
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING. THE RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT
THIS EVENING. 

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY FALL TO OR JUST BELOW 35 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW VALUES OF
RELATIVE HUMIDITY...WHEN COMBINED WITH EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 15
MPH AND HIGH DISPERSION INDICES...WILL LEAD TO RED FLAG CONDITIONS.
DANGEROUS FIRE GROWTH IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS WHERE RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES MAY DROP TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 35 PERCENT DUE TO THE
STRONG WINDS AND HIGH DISPERSION.

ON TUESDAY...DEEP MIXING WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY AIR DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR
A FEW HOURS OVER THESE SAME AREAS...POSSIBLY 4 OR 5 HOURS
DEPENDING ON HOW WARM TEMPERATURES GET. ALSO...THOUGH 20 FT WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOME...DISPERSION INDICES WILL REMAIN HIGH
DUE TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS NEAR 20 MPH THROUGH THE MIXING LAYER.
THIS COMBINATION WILL POTENTIALLY LEAD TO DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WATCH AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE
RED FLAG WARNINGS.

&&

$$

FLZ069-272200-
/O.EXT.KMFL.FW.W.0036.000000T0000Z-090427T2200Z/
COASTAL COLLIER-
210 PM EDT MON APR 27 2009

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THE RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING. 

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY FALL TO OR JUST BELOW 35 PERCENT ACROSS
COASTAL COLLIER COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW VALUES OF RELATIVE
HUMIDITY...WHEN COMBINED WITH EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 MPH AND
HIGH DISPERSION INDICES...WILL LEAD TO RED FLAG CONDITIONS.
DANGEROUS FIRE GROWTH IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS WHERE RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES MAY DROP TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 35 PERCENT DUE TO THE
STRONG WINDS AND HIGH DISPERSION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

&&

$$

GS/BNB

000 
WWUS82 KMFL 272147
RFWMFL

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
547 PM EDT MON APR 27 2009

...RED FLAG WARNING FOR TODAY IS CANCELLED...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FOR GLADES...HENDRY...AND INLAND
COLLIER COUNTIES TUESDAY FOR POSSIBLY 4 OR MORE HOURS WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BELOW 35 PERCENT AND HIGH DISPERSION
INDICES...

FLZ063-066-070-281030-
/O.CAN.KMFL.FW.W.0036.000000T0000Z-090427T2200Z/
/O.CON.KMFL.FW.A.0028.090428T1700Z-090428T2300Z/
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND COLLIER-
547 PM EDT MON APR 27 2009

...RED FLAG WARNING FOR TODAY IS CANCELLED...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HAVE CLIMBED TO ABOVE 35 PERCENT OVER THE AREA
THEREFORE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS CANCELLED THE
RED FLAG WARNING. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

ON TUESDAY...DEEP MIXING WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY AIR DOWN TO
THE SURFACE. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW 35 PERCENT
FOR A FEW HOURS OVER THESE SAME AREAS...POSSIBLY 4 OR 5 HOURS
DEPENDING ON HOW WARM TEMPERATURES GET. ALSO...THOUGH 20 FT WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOME...DISPERSION INDICES WILL REMAIN HIGH
DUE TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS NEAR 20 MPH THROUGH THE MIXING LAYER.
THIS COMBINATION WILL POTENTIALLY LEAD TO DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WATCH AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE
RED FLAG WARNINGS.

&&

$$

FLZ069-272300-
/O.CAN.KMFL.FW.W.0036.000000T0000Z-090427T2200Z/
COASTAL COLLIER-
547 PM EDT MON APR 27 2009

...RED FLAG WARNING FOR TODAY IS CANCELLED...

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HAVE CLIMBED TO ABOVE 35 PERCENT OVER THE AREA
THEREFORE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS CANCELLED THE
RED FLAG WARNING.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
419 AM EDT MON APR 27 2009

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT IS IN PROGRESS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH
STRONG EASTERLY FLOW REGIME CONTINUING AND ONLY A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS NOTED OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND EAST COAST.
OVERALL...TRENDS IN SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE REMAIN UNCHANGED...
WITH ALL MODELS SUGGESTING THAT MID-LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED
ACROSS THE DELMARVA REGION WILL SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
ATLANTIC TODAY...AS LONG WAVE TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED STRONGER
VORTICES EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR MORE OF AN INFLUENCE OF WEAKNESS IN HEIGHT FIELD
ALOFT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK
UPPER LOW EAST OF THE BAHAMAS EXPECTED TO EDGE CLOSER TO THE AREA
TODAY. HOWEVER...A VERY DRY AIRMASS EMANATING FROM REGION OF
STRONG LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE TO THE NORTH OF THIS UPPER LOW AND
TO THE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ADVECTED SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...AND SHOULD LIMIT THREAT
FOR SHOWERS...WITH POPS BEING HELD AT 10 PERCENT ACROSS THE
BOARD...AND BULK OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM THE
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS WESTWARD TO THE FLORIDA KEYS. RIDGING ALOFT OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BEGINNING TONIGHT...AS
A STRONG UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM HUDSON BAY TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES...WITH A BROAD SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERED OVER MEXICO
FORECAST TO BEGIN STRENGTHENING DOWNSTREAM FROM UPPER LOW MOVING
ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS THIS RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...ITS INFLUENCE SHOULD FINALLY FORCE THE PESKY BAHAMAS
UPPER LOW EASTWARD...WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FINALLY BEGINNING TO
INCREASE FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THUS...EXPECT A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...
WITH A CONTINUATION OF EASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER-LEVELS.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW A PERSISTENCE PATTERN...WITH
DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER BEING THE PRIMARY MODULATING FACTOR IN
DETERMINING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES. EXPECT HIGHS TO CONTINUE RUNNING
AROUND 80-83 F ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND 87-90F ALONG THE GULF
COAST...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 60S INTERIOR AND WEST AND
LOWER/MID 70S EAST.

GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE WEST...AND
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEFORE
BEGINNING TO WEAKEN BY NEXT WEEKEND...AS UPPER LOW OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST BEGINS TO FINALLY EJECT EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/GREAT LAKES. IN THE LOWER-LEVELS...EASTERLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD
INTO THE ATLANTIC...ALLOWING LIGHTER SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW TO
PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN
STRENGTH AND TIMING BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF...IT ALSO APPEARS THAT A
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF SOMETIME NEXT
WEEKEND...WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RESULTING IN A
SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE REGION BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. WITH LIGHTER GRADIENT...SEA BREEZES ARE
ANTICIPATED ALONG BOTH COASTS FROM WEDNESDAY BEYOND...WITH AT
LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION POSSIBLE OVER THE
MAINLAND...AND NOCTURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE ATLANTIC AND
ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE MAY INITIALLY LIMIT COVERAGE OF
ACTIVITY ON WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...WITH PERHAPS A HIGHER COVERAGE ON
FRIDAY/SATURDAY AFTERNOONS AS CAP WEAKENS AND MOISTURE INCREASES.
PREVAILING SOUTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN SHOWERS
AND STORMS BECOMING CONCENTRATED OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST
COAST...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGHEST POPS IN THIS PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL CONTINUE TREND OF EXPANDING CURRENT SCA FOR ALL ATLANTIC
MARINE ZONES AND BISCAYNE BAY FORWARD IN TIME THIS MORNING...
WITH EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 20 KNOTS AND
GULF STREAM SEAS EXPECTED TO RUN IN THE 6-9 FOOT RANGE THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IT STILL APPEARS AS IF GRADIENT FLOW WILL BEGIN
TO DIMINISH BEYOND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WEAKENS
AND SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC...BUT SEAS WILL LIKELY BE
SLOWER TO SUBSIDE AND SCEC HEADLINES MAY STILL BE REQUIRED.
LIGHTER SOUTHEAST FLOW OF 10-15 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL
OF THE LOCAL WATERS FROM THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...
WITH SEAS FALLING BACK INTO THE 2-4 FOOT RANGE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL LIKELY BE ISSUING RFW SHORTLY FOR GLADES/HENDRY/COLLIER
COUNTIES...WITH MINIMUM RH EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN BRIEFLY FALL
TO 35 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS RH...COUPLED WITH 20 FOOT WINDS
IN EXCESS OF THE 15 MPH CRITERIA...AND GOOD DISPERSION INIDICES...
WILL CREATE DANGEROUS FIRE GROWTH CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WARNING
AREA. ALTHOUGH SIMILAR CONDITIONS MAY EXIST FOR THE SAME AREA ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  81  71  81  71 / 10 10 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE  83  75  83  75 / 10 10 10 20
MIAMI            82  73  82  73 / 10 20 20 20
NAPLES           89  65  89  65 / 10 10 10 10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...NONE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ630-
     AMZ650-AMZ651-AMZ670-AMZ671.

GM...NONE.

&&

LONG TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...60/BD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
425 AM EDT MON APR 27 2009

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-272330-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
425 AM EDT MON APR 27 2009

...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES...
...VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FROM WILDFIRE SMOKE IN COLLIER COUNTY...
...HAZARDOUS GULF STREAM SEAS...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RIP CURRENTS: EASTERLY WINDS FROM 18 TO 25 MPH TODAY ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST WILL CREATE A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE
ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES. SWIMMING IS NOT ENCOURAGED DUE TO THE
DANGERS POSED BY RIP CURRENTS.

VISIBILITY: RESTRICTIONS IN VISIBILITY WILL CONTINUE NEAR THE
WILDFIRE OVER CENTRAL RURAL COLLIER COUNTY, ESPECIALLY NEAR AND
WEST OF THE INTERSECTION OF ALLIGATOR ALLEY AND STATE ROUTE 29.

WAVES: A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE WINDS AROUND 18 TO 22 KNOTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY. THE GULF
STREAM SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 6 TO NEAR 7 FEET TODAY AND SLOWLY
SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS THE WINDS DECREASE SOME OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE ATLANTIC
COAST BEACHES OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
LEAD TO AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
BEACHES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.