Red Flag Warning 17, NWS Miami, FL

000 
WWUS82 KMFL 052254
RFWMFL

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
554 PM EST THU MAR 5 2009

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE...

FLZ069-060000-
/O.CAN.KMFL.FW.W.0017.000000T0000Z-090305T2300Z/
COASTAL COLLIER-
554 PM EST THU MAR 5 2009

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ALLOWED THE RED FLAG
WARNING TO EXPIRE.

REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE
WARNING AREA HAVE RISEN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS AND ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN THAT WAY THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. THEREFORE...THE RED
FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1229 PM EST THU MAR 5 2009

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
06/18Z. BRIEF PERIOD OF BKN CEILINGS AT 45-50 KTF EXPECTED DUE TO
SMALL PATCHES OF LOW/MID LVL CLOUDS BEING ADVECTED WESTWARD FROM
THE ATLANTIC. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN FROM THE EAST AT 14 TO 16 KTS
BUT DIMINISHING TO ARND 10 KTS AFTER 06/00Z. WNDS WILL INCREASE
AGAIN TO ARND 14 KTS BY MID MORNING FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 933 AM EST THU MAR 5 2009/

UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT
THIS POINT. MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE TO MONITOR DEWPOINT TRENDS
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SOUTH FL PENINSULA. MODEL FCST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEWPOINTS COULD POTENTIALLY MIX DOWN INTO THE
MID 40S THIS AFTERNOON...AND WITH HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED AROUND 76 OR
77 DEGREES THIS WILL BRING THESE AREAS VERY CLOSE TO RED FLAG
CRITERIA SHOULD IT HAPPEN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO SEE WHETHER OR NOT A SHORT-FUSED WARNING
WILL BE NEEDED.

/STRASSBERG

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 AM EST THU MAR 5 2009/

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A GENERAL EAST
FLOW, HOWEVER THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL CEILINGS AROUND 3 TO 5K FT. /TINGLER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM EST THU MAR 5 2009/

DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL EXIT THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST LATER TODAY AND SLIDE SOUTHEAST TO ALONG 30N SUNDAY AND 28N
LATER MONDAY. IN THE MEANTIME, A MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO TODAY WILL MOVE EAST TO BE CENTERED OVER FLORIDA BY
SATURDAY AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE RESULT
WILL BE FAIRLY LOW MEAN RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WITH ONLY LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM TIME TO TIME DUE TO EAST FLOW. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN TODAY AND WONT RELAX UNTIL LATER INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST WHEN THE HIGH IS
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WITH LOW TIDE OVER THE ATLANTIC BEACHES STARTING EARLY TODAY AND
ONLY GRADUALLY BECOMING LATER NEXT FEW DAYS, EXPECT WITH THE
MODERATE FLOW, A HIGH CHANCE OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH SATURDAY.
CHANCE OF PRECIP. CONTINUES TO BE ALMOST NIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

MARINE...EXPECT MODERATE EAST FLOW OVER THE ATLANTIC TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AND OUTER GULF WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY AND TODAY
OVER THE BAY. HIGHEST SEAS WILL BE 6 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC AND 5
FEET OUTER GULF WATERS. SO WE WILL ADVERTISE SCEC FOR THE
ATLANTIC, BISCAYNE BAY AND OUTER GULF WATERS. THEN BY THE WEEKEND
THE FLOW RELAXES AND EAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED
TURNING SOUTHEAST MOST AREAS BY SUNDAY.

FIRE WEATHER...CANCELLED FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR TODAY FOR THE
NORTHWEST AREAS. EXPECT ONLY 1 TO 2 HOURS OF MINIMUM RHS BELOW 35
PERCENT TODAY. GRIDDED MOS AND THE LOCAL WRF AGREE WELL WITH THIS
AND THE FACT THERE WAS NO LOW RHS MEETING CRITERIA TODAY AND DEW
POINTS WILL BE HIGHER, EXPECT NO PROBLEMS. FOR FRIDAY ON, EXPECT
NO PROBLEMS EITHER WITH RHS ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  60  76  63  78 / -  0 0 -
FORT LAUDERDALE  63  76  65  78 / -  0 -  -
MIAMI            62  76  63  79 / -  0 -  -
NAPLES           53  78  58  80 / -  0 0 -

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

LONG TERM...65/GS
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...47/RHG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
331 AM EST THU MAR 5 2009

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-060400-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
331 AM EST THU MAR 5 2009

...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COAST TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RIP CURRENTS: EAST NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BLOW ACROSS THE COAST OF
PALM BEACH, BROWARD, AND MIAMI DADE COUNTIES TODAY, HOWEVER WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE GREATEST TO THE SOUTH. WIND SPEEDS OF 16 TO 20 MPH WILL
OCCUR ACROSS BROWARD AND MIAMI DADE COUNTIES WHILE SPEEDS OF
AROUND 15 MPH WILL BE COMMON IN PALM BEACH. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IN BROWARD AND MIAMI DADE COUNTIES WHILE
RISK WILL BE SLIGHTLY LESS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF PALM BEACH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS EAST OF NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP SOME RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE ATLANTIC SHORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.