Heat Advisory 2, NWS Miami, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
832 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2009

.UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED ALL PUBLIC PRODUCTS FOR ISSUANCE OF SEVERE
TSTM WATCH. HAVE RAMPED UP WEATHER AND INCREASED POPS TO 70
PERCENT FOR MOST AREAS. CURRENTLY A LINE STRETCHES FROM GLADES AND
HENDRY SOUTHEAST TO NORTHEAST MIAMI DADE COUNTY. HAVE ALEADY ISSUED
WARNINGS AND A TORNADO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WILL BE
UPDATING THE CWF SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 813 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2009/

AVIATION...
LINE OF TSTMS FM INTERIOR OF S FLA EXTENDING SE INTO ATLC OFF OF
BROWARD COUNTY. ACTIVITY MOVING S ARND 18 KNOTS. SHOULD CLR KPBI BY
13Z BUT REMAINING E COAST TERMINALS CAN XPCT VERY BRIEF IFR AND TEMPO
MVFR IN HVY RA/LOW CLDS AS TSTMS PASS. VFR REMAINDER OF PD BUT
VCTS PSBL TIL 00Z. AT KAPF VFR THRU 15Z THEN VCTS AS SEA BREEZE
CONVERGES WITH LINE OF TSTMS MOVG S FROM LAKE OKEE AREA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2009/

.HEAT INDICES NEAR 105 ALL AREAS TODAY...
.A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE...

DISCUSSION...IT IS A SULTRY MORNING ACROSS SOUTH FL. TEMPS ARE STEADY
IN THE LOWER 80S WITH HEAT INDICES STILL IN THE 90S DUE TO VERY
HIGH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80. PRETTY AMAZING THAT
THE HEAT INDEX RIGHT NOW AT NAPLES AND FT. LAUDERDALE IS 96.
TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE A CHALLENGE AS THE LOCAL AREA WILL STILL
REMAIN IN A HOTTER THAN NORMAL AIRMASS. HOWEVER...THE HOT DOME OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SW AS A TROUGH MOVES IN FROM
THE NE. THIS WILL LEAD TO COLD (RELATIVELY SPEAKING OF COURSE)
AIR ADVECTION. THIS...ALONG WITH AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND THE PROSPECT FOR TSTORM DEVELOPMENT...WILL LEAD ME
TO SIDE WITH GFS/NAM GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON...DESPITE THEIR LOW BIAS OF LATE. HOWEVER...CONVECTION
LOOKS LIKELY INTERIOR/EAST COAST...SO WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 90S AREA WIDE THIS AFTERNOON. I SHOULD SAY THAT IF STORMS
HOLD OFF AND PLENTY OF SUN PREVAILS...THEN TEMPS WOULD GO SEVERAL
DEGREES HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

HEAT INDICES WILL REACH NEAR 105 TODAY...BUT DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE
A HEAT ADVISORY DUE TO EXPECTED BORDERLINE CONDITIONS AND THE
EXPECTATION OF QUITE A BIT OF SHOWER/TSTORM ACTIVITY WHICH WOULD
LEAD TO A QUICK REPRIEVE IN THE HIGH HEAT INDICES.

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN VERY UNSTABLE TODAY. CONVECTION
OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN IS SENDING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ONSHORE THE
ATLANTIC COAST. THESE BOUNDARIES...AND AN INCOMING SURFACE TROUGH
FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING
SOUTH...IS EXPECTED TO LEAD SCT-NUM TSTORMS TODAY...WITH THE FOCUS
INTERIOR/EAST COAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW HIGH CAPE OF AROUND
4000 J/KG AND LIS AROUND -8C WITH PWATS AOA 2 INCHES. GIVEN
THIS...A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING
THE PRIMARY RISK. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORMS
TODAY AS WELL...BUT THEY WILL BE ON THE MOVE SO WILL JUST HAVE TO
KEEP ANY EYE ON WHERE ANY STORMS TRAIN.

THE TROUGH AND DEEP MOISTURE LOOKS TO SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH TONIGHT TO
THE FAR SOUTHERN PENINSULA WITH SIGNIFICANT DRYING OCCURRING FROM
EAST CENTRAL FL TO THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE-PALM BEACH REGION.
HOWEVER...THE MOISTURE LOOKS TO QUICKLY MAKE A COME BACK AS GFS
SHOWS A MID LEVEL LOW CLOSING OFF JUST TO OUR WEST. GIVEN
THIS...TRENDED POPS DOWN FROM THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE-PALM BEACH REGION
FOR WED WITH HIGHEST POPS TO THE SOUTH. KEPT HIGH END CHANCE POPS
FOR ALL AREAS FOR THU. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO COOL WITH HIGHS EVEN
A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW AVERAGE. RATHER HIGH HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE
THOUGH...NO SURPRISE FOR A SOUTH FL SUMMER.

GFS SHOWS THE SURFACE ATLANTIC RIDGE OVER THE FL STRAITS
FRI...LIFTING NORTH INTO CENTRAL FL SAT BEFORE SHIFTING BACK SOUTH
OF THE LOCAL AREA SUN THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
KEPT WITH PREVAILING CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE
OVERALL PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR A FOCUS OF SHOWERS/STORMS
INTERIOR/EAST COAST. NAPLES SURE COULD USE MORE RAIN AS THE RAINFALL
DEFICIT THERE IS NEARING A FOOT FOR THE YEAR.

MARINE...WINDS ARE BLOWING HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE SO INCREASED
WINDS FOR THIS MORNING...INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE FOR BISCAYNE BAY
AND THE ATLANTIC WATERS. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL PEVAIL AT 15 KT OR
LESS WITH SEAS 4 FT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. OF
COURSE...STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS WILL BE FOUND IN/NEAR
STORMS.

FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  92  76  89  76 / 70 20 30 30
FORT LAUDERDALE  93  78  90  76 / 70 30 50 30
MIAMI            93  79  92  77 / 70 30 50 30
NAPLES           91  78  89  76 / 40 30 50 30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     FLZ063-FLZ066-FLZ067-FLZ068-FLZ069-FLZ070-FLZ071-FLZ072-
     FLZ073-FLZ074-FLZ075-FLZ168-FLZ172-FLZ173-FLZ174.

AM...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     AMZ610-AMZ630-AMZ651.

GM...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     GMZ656-GMZ657.

&&

LONG TERM...18/GR
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...65/GS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
744 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2009

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-240245-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
744 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2009

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 3 PM EDT...
...HEAT INDEX AROUND 105 ALL AREAS...
...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE GULF COAST...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RIP CURRENTS: WEST WINDS OF AROUND 15 MPH WILL PRODUCE A
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE GULF COAST.

THUNDERSTORMS: SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY POSSIBLY BECOME
SEVERE WITH WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 60 MPH. HAIL TO PENNY SIZE MAY ALSO
BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

TORNADOES: THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING A BRIEF TORNADO.

WATERSPOUTS: THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY MOVE OFFSHORE
INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS INCLUDING BISCAYNE BAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING A WATERSPOUT.

WIND: WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 60 MPH MAY BE POSSIBLE TODAY IN THE
STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS.

HAIL: HAIL TO NEAR PENNY SIZE MAY BE POSSIBLE TODAY IN THE
STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS.

FLOODING: THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL TODAY WHICH MAY PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON POORLY
DRAINED ROADWAYS.

TEMPERATURES: ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTH FLORIDA, HOWEVER AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING A BRIEF
BIT OF RELIEF TO THE TEMPERATURES. HEAT INDEXES ACROSS THE AREA
WILL STILL TOP OUT AROUND 105 ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND GUSTY WINDS BEING THE
BIGGEST THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
804 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2009

FLZ067-071-072-168-172-173-231245-
INLAND PALM BEACH COUNTY FL-COASTAL PALM BEACH COUNTY FL-
INLAND BROWARD COUNTY FL-METRO BROWARD COUNTY FL-
COASTAL BROWARD COUNTY FL-COASTAL MIAMI-DADE COUNTY FL-
804 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN PALM BEACH AND
NORTHERN BROWARD COUNTIES...

AT 800 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES NORTH OF
HOLEY LAND WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT AREA TO POMPANO BEACH...MOVING SOUTH
AT 25 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT...

COCONUT CREEK...
HOLEY LAND WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT AREA...
NORTH LAUDERDALE...
ROTENBERGER WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT AREA...
FORT LAUDERDALE...
DANIA BEACH...

AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES ACROSS SOUTHERN PALM BEACH AND NORTHERN
BROWARD COUNTIES.

THE PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 55 MPH...WHICH CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND
BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. LIGHTNING IS THE
NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED KILLER IN FLORIDA. TREES AND OPEN
SHELTERS OFFER NO PROTECTION. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL
THE STORM PASSES.

RESIDENTS SHOULD STAY ALERT IN CASE A WARNING IS NEEDED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM EDT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHERN FLORIDA.

LAT...LON 2597 8015 2613 8055 2619 8084 2669 8088
      2646 8073 2634 8051 2632 8007
TIME...MOT...LOC 1203Z 008DEG 22KT 2648 8070 2624 8013

GS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
858 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 AM     FLASH FLOOD      MIAMI BEACH             25.81N 80.13W
06/23/2009                   MIAMI-DADE         FL   NWS EMPLOYEE

            STREET FLOODING WAS OCCURING AT WEST AVENUE NEAR 17TH
            STREET AND THE MACARTHUR CAUSEWAY

0800 AM     TSTM WND GST     10 NW PAHOKEE           26.91N 80.79W
06/23/2009  M57.00 MPH       AMZ610             FL   MESONET

            A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCED A WIND GUST OF 57 MPH AT MESONET
            SITE LZ40.

0800 AM     TSTM WND GST     7 W PAHOKEE             26.82N 80.78W
06/23/2009  M54.00 MPH       AMZ610             FL   MESONET

            A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCED A WIND GUST OF 54 MPH AT MESONET
            SITE L006.

0830 AM     HAIL             PLANTATION              26.12N 80.25W
06/23/2009  E0.88 INCH       BROWARD            FL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCED NICKEL SIZED HAIL AS WELL A WIND
            GUST UP TO 70 MPH.

0845 AM     TSTM WND GST     MIAMI LAKES             25.91N 80.31W
06/23/2009  E60.00 MPH       MIAMI-DADE         FL   NWS EMPLOYEE

            A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCED A WIND GUST OF 60 MPH.

&&

CARACOZZA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
908 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 AM     TSTM WND GST     PLANTATION              26.12N 80.25W
06/23/2009  E70.00 MPH       BROWARD            FL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCED A WIND GUST OF 70 MPH IN
            PLANTATION.

&&

CARACOZZA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
921 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0912 AM     HEAVY RAIN       CORAL GABLES            25.73N 80.27W
06/23/2009  E2.00 INCH       MIAMI-DADE         FL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER MD301 REPORTED A RAIN RATE OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR
            IN DOWNTOWN CORAL GABLES.

&&

RAGARCIA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1029 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 AM     TSTM WND DMG     JUPITER                 26.93N 80.10W
06/23/2009                   PALM BEACH         FL   BROADCAST MEDIA

            POWERLINES DOWN IN JUPITER. TIME ESTIMATED AT 650 AM EDT.

0710 AM     TSTM WND DMG     WEST PALM BEACH         26.71N 80.06W
06/23/2009                   PALM BEACH         FL   BROADCAST MEDIA

            POWERLINES DOWN. TIME ESTIMATED AT 710 AM EDT.

0715 AM     TSTM WND DMG     PALM BEACH GARDENS      26.83N 80.10W
06/23/2009                   PALM BEACH         FL   BROADCAST MEDIA

            POWERLINE DOWN. TIME ESTIMATED AT 715 AM EDT.

0750 AM     LIGHTNING        WELLINGTON              26.66N 80.26W
06/23/2009                   PALM BEACH         FL   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            *** 1 INJ *** LIGHTNING REPORTED TO HAVE STARTED HOUSE
            FIRE ON THE 9200TH BLOCK OF VIA ELEGANTE IN WELLINGTON.
            REPORTED BY PALM BEACH COUNTY FIRE-RESCUE, RELAYED BY
            MEDIA. 1 INJURED.

0830 AM     TSTM WND DMG     PLANTATION              26.12N 80.25W
06/23/2009                   BROWARD            FL   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            *** 1 INJ *** TREE FELL ON 70 YEAR OLD GENTLEMAN ON THE
            900TH BLOCK OF NW 116 TERRACE IN PLANTATION. REPORTED BY
            PLANTATION FIRE DEPARTMENT, RELAYED BY MEDIA.

0900 AM     LIGHTNING        SOUTHWEST RANCHES       26.06N 80.33W
06/23/2009                   BROWARD            FL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            REPORTED BY BROWARD SHERIFFS OFFICE, FORWARDED BY WFOR-TV
            AND THE SUN-SENTINEL. ON THE 14800 BLOCK OF LURAY ROAD IN
            SOUTHWEST RANCHES, LIGHTNING STRUCK A TREE AND CAUSED IT
            TO FALL AND LIGHT ON FIRE.

&&

RAGARCIA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1048 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     TSTM WND GST     1 SSW CANAL POINT       26.85N 80.64W
06/23/2009  E60 MPH          PALM BEACH         FL   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC AT 2812 MAIN ST/US441 IN PAHOKEE, FL REPORTED WIND
            GUSTS OF 60 MPH AND HEAVY RAINS AT AROUND 8AM.

&&

RAGARCIA