Freeze Warning 7, NWS Miami, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
231 PM EST MON MAR 2 2009

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY WILL NOSE
SOUTH ACROSS THE LONG AXIS OF THE FL PENINSULA TONIGHT. MODEL FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL DECOUPLE ACROSS INTERIOR
AREAS WITH WINDS DECREASING TO AROUND 5 KNOTS ACROSS COASTAL
LOCATIONS. THIS ALLEVIATES MOST CONCERNS WITH WIND CHILL ADVISORY
CRITERIA LIKELY NOT BEING MET ANYWHERE IN THE CWA TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...WITH CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES CONDITIONS WILL BE IDEAL
FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS NW INTERIOR AREAS. MIN
TEMPS DROPPED TO 36 IN PARTS OF GLADES COUNTY THIS MORNING...AND
GIVEN LONGER DURATION OF DECOUPLED CONDITIONS TONIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL
LIKELY DROP SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER. GIVEN FCST THICKNESSES ARE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER FOR TOMORROW MORNING AND CORE OF COLDEST LOW
LEVEL/925MB AIR HAS PASSED...WILL KEEP CURRENT FCST OF LOWS AROUND
33. IT IS NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT ONE OR TWO SPOTS MAY
BRIEFLY TOUCH 32...BUT GIVEN IT IS LATE IN THE SEASON AND THE
FACTORS MENTIONED ABOVE FEEL THAT FREEZING TEMPS WILL BE TOUGH TO
ACHIEVE. STILL...WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 30S ACROSS GLADES,
HENDRY, NORTHERN COLLIER AND FAR INTERIOR PALM BEACH
COUNTIES...PATCHY FROST WILL DEVELOP...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE TOO
LOW FOR WIDESPREAD FROST AND A FROST ADVISORY. ELSEWHERE...LOW
TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 40 ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN MIAMI/FT
LAUDERDALE SUBURBS TO THE MID 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
METRO AREAS. MIN TEMPS IN THE LOWER 40S ARE EXPECTED IN THE WEST
PALM BEACH AND NAPLES AREAS. RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE NORMALLY
COLDER NW INTERIOR AREAS FOR TONIGHT/TOMORROW MORNING ARE
GENERALLY BETWEEN 28 AND 32 DEGREES AND THEREFORE MIN TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL JUST SHY OF RECORDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SE TO THE
CAROLINA COAST AND CONTINUES SE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. BOUNDARY
LAYER SHOULD DECOUPLE THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR CALM WINDS IN THE SAME AREAS MENTIONED
ABOVE...ALLOWING FOR SEVERAL MORE COOL NIGHTS. READINGS COULD EVEN
DIP WELL INTO THE 30S AGAIN WITH PATCHY FROST IN THESE AREAS
TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE LOWS WARM INTO THE 40S. ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA...THE CONDITIONS REFERENCED ABOVE MAY RESULT IN
SEVERAL NIGHTS WITH LAND BREEZES FOR THE WESTERN METRO AREAS
DESPITE FLOW SHIFTING TO THE NE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS EACH
DAY...THOUGH COASTAL LOCATIONS MAY STAY WITH NE WINDS GIVEN
APPROACH OF BACKDOOR FRONT. THIS COULD KEEP SOME COOLER NIGHTS ACROSS
THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS EVEN AS DAYTIME HIGHS WARM GRADUALLY
THROUGH THE WEEK.

OUTSIDE OF TEMPS...IT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND
GENERALLY DRY. THE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR TWO WILL COME
WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK BACKDOOR/REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE/CLOUDS. BEHIND THIS FRONT A
DEEP-LAYER SFC-500MB RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA
FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND KEEPING TRANQUIL BUT WARMER WEATHER
CONDITIONS IN PLACE.

&&

.MARINE...
NWRLY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO 10-15KTS TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY SHIFT
NERLY TOMORROW NIGHT AND BEHIND SECONDARY FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. A
BRIEF WIND SURGE NEAR 20KTS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT BEFORE NERLY
WINDS AROUND 15KTS RESUME FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...GRADUALLY
SHIFTING MORE ERLY WITH TIME. SEAS WILL RUN AROUND 7 FT EARLY TONIGHT
BUT DROP BELOW BY MORNING AS WINDS WEAKEN SOME...WITH A POSSIBLE
RETURN TO 7 FT BRIEFLY ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT IF NERLY
SWELL CAN PROPAGATE DOWN THE COAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG WARNING VERIFYING ALL ZONES EXCEPT COASTAL COLLIER COUNTY
AS ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW THERE. DECIDED
AGAINST CANCELING FOR THEM AT THIS POINT TO AVOID CONFUSION IN
THE PRODUCT. DEWPOINTS MAY DROP EVEN MORE TOMORROW AND THIS WILL
LEAD TO RED FLAG CONDITIONS EVEN ON THE GULF COAST DESPITE ONSHORE
FLOW. ONLY LOCATIONS NOT EXPECTED TO MEET CRITERIA TOMORROW ARE
IMMEDIATE EAST COASTAL ZONES AS WINDS WILL SHIFT ONSHORE THERE IN
THE AFTERNOON...BRINGING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. EVEN HERE
THOUGH 2 TO 3 HRS AROUND 35 PERCENT IS POSSIBLE...BUT WINDS WILL
BE LIGHTER AND NOT CONTRIBUTE TO CRITERIA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  43  68  50  70 / 0 0 -  -
FORT LAUDERDALE  46  69  52  71 / 0 0 10 -
MIAMI            46  69  51  72 / 0 0 10 -
NAPLES           45  66  45  73 / 0 0 0 -

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR FLZ063-FLZ066-
     FLZ067-FLZ068-FLZ069-FLZ070-FLZ071-FLZ072-FLZ073-FLZ074-
     FLZ075-FLZ168-FLZ172-FLZ173-FLZ174.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM EST TUESDAY FOR FLZ063-
     FLZ066-FLZ067-FLZ068-FLZ069-FLZ070-FLZ071-FLZ072-FLZ073-
     FLZ074-FLZ075-FLZ174.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ650-
     AMZ651-AMZ670-AMZ671.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ676.

&&

DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WX...STRASSBERG
AVIATION...RGH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
848 AM EST MON MAR 2 2009

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-030000-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
848 AM EST MON MAR 2 2009

...ANOTHER COLD ONE TONIGHT WITH PATCHY FROST INTERIOR...
...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RIP CURRENTS: NORTHWEST WINDS OF AROUND 15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS
WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY ALONG THE GULF
COAST NORTH OF MARCO ISLAND.

TEMPERATURES: TONIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME VERY LIGHT TO NEARLY CALM.
THIS, COMBINED WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, WILL RESULT IN ACTUAL
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 30S AND 40S WITH SOME INTERIOR AREAS
FALLING TO JUST ABOVE FREEZING. THIS MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FROST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF INLAND PALM BEACH, INLAND BROWARD, INLAND COLLIER,
GLADES, AND HENDRY COUNTIES.

WAVES: NORTHWEST WINDS OF AT LEAST 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AND THIS WILL KEEP SEAS IN
THE GULF STREAM AT 7 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS IN THE WELL
OFFSHORE GULF WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR 7 FEET THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP SEAS IN THE GULF
STREAM AT 6 TO 8 FEET INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT IS EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR AND WEST COAST SECTIONS
OF SOUTH FLORIDA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE MID
30S TO MID 40S ACROSS GLADES, HENDRY, AND COLLIER COUNTIES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.