Fire Weather Watch 21, NWS Miami, FL

000 
WWUS82 KMFL 040726
RFWMFL

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
326 AM EDT SAT APR 4 2009

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH CANCELLED FOR THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA...

FLZ063-066-070-040830-
/O.CAN.KMFL.FW.A.0021.090404T1600Z-090405T0000Z/
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND COLLIER-
326 AM EDT SAT APR 4 2009

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS CANCELLED FOR THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS...

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL GET DOWN TO JUST UNDER 35 PERCENT
FOR AN HOUR OR TWO OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF GLADES COUNTY
THIS AFTERNOON THEREFORE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS
CANCELLED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR GLADES, HENDRY AND INLAND
COLLIER COUNTIES.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
218 PM EDT FRI APR 3 2009

...LITTLE BIT OF RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DRYING OUT THIS WEEKEND...
...MUCH COOLER TEMPS ON THE WAY FOR MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SINK SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA...BEFORE CONTINUING TO MOVE SOUTH
THROUGH REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING.

THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST FURTHER
AWAY FROM SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
DISSIPATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE STORMS CAN STILL
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH SOME SMALL HAIL THIS AFTERNOON OVER
THE CWA. SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS IN THE HWO PRODUCT.

THE FRONT SHOULD WASH OUT OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
CWA OR OVER THE NORTHERN FLORIDA KEYS LATE TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY. SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR
THIS EVENING BEFORE GOING DRY LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME PATCHY FOG OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE CWA LATE TONIGHT...DUE TO THE FRONT NEAR BY. SO WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION THE PATCHY FOG WORDING IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS AREA
FOR LATE TONIGHT.

THE HIGH WILL BREAK DOWN LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS
A STRONG COLD FRONT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR MOVES SOUTHEAST TOWARDS
THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
WINDS TO SWING MORE TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
OVER THE CWA BRINGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. SO HAVE
ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR MOST OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...AND KEPT
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MONDAY.

.EXTENDED FORECAST...
ONCE THE STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
EVENING...THE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY OVER THE CWA FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING IN MUCH DRIER AND COOLER
WEATHER TO THE AREA WITH HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S...AND LOWS IN
THE 40S OVER THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR AREAS TO THE 50S ALONG THE
METRO AREAS. THIS IS ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WIND SPEEDS WILL SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON FROM AROUND 20 KNOTS
DOWN TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXCEPT FOR THE GULF WATERS
WHERE THEY WILL SUBSIDE FROM 15 TO 20 KNOTS DOWN TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL THEN REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS THIS
WEEKEND...BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN TO AT LEAST 20 KNOTS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THE WIND DIRECTION WILL SWING FROM SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON TO A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BEFORE
SWINGING SLOWLY BACK TO SOUTHWEST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE GULF STREAM SEAS WILL ALSO SLOWLY SUBSIDE FROM 5 TO 7 FEET LATE THIS
AFTERNOON TO 4 TO 6 FEET BY MIDNIGHT. THE GULF STREAM SEAS WILL
THEN CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 6 FEET BY SATURDAY
MORNING...AND REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOR NEAR-
SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE GULF WATERS...THE SEAS WILL REMAIN
BELOW 6 FEET THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SO WILL REPLACE THE SCA FOR ALL OF THE CWA WATERS WITH THE SCEC
FOR THIS EVENING...EXCEPT FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS WHERE A SCA WILL
REMAIN UP UNTIL 8 PM EDT FOR THE SEAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE 35 PERCENT CRITICAL
VALUE THIS WEEKEND...EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR AREAS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA. THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR AREAS OF THE CWA SHOULD BE
ABLE TO FALL BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR 4 HOURS OR MORE ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...AS DRIER AIR OVER WESTERN CENTRAL FLORIDA GET PULL DOWN
INTO THIS AREA ON THE NORTHERLY WIND FLOW. SO WILL BE PUTTING UP
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR GLADES...HENDRY...AND INLAND COLLIER
COUNTIES FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.CLIMATE...
SOUTH FLORIDA HAS NOT SEEN MUCH RAINFALL DURING THE PASS WEEK
WHICH HAS ALLOW FOR THE DEFICITS OVER THE AREA TO CONTINUE TO GROW
FOR THE DRY SEASON. HERE IS THE LATEST RAINFALL DEFICITS OF THE
DRY SEASON OF 2008/09 FOR THE 4 MAJOR AIRPORT SITES LOCATED IN
SOUTH FLORIDA AS OF THU 04/03/2009.

CITIES     RAINFALL DEFICITS
              OF 2008/09

MIA             -8.82
FLL            -11.80
PBI            -14.54
APF             -8.30

SO MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA IS STILL IN A SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITION...EXCEPT
FOR THE METRO BROWARD...METRO SOUTHERN PALM BEACH...AND METRO NORTHERN MIAMI-
DADE COUNTIES WHICH ARE IN A MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  68  83  72  87 / 20 10 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE  71  84  74  86 / 20 10 10 10
MIAMI            72  85  73  87 / 20 10 10 10
NAPLES           68  84  70  85 / 20 10 -  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR FLZ063-FLZ066-FLZ070.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ650-
     AMZ651-AMZ670-AMZ671.

GM...NONE.
&&

LONG TERM...54/BNB
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...60/BD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1026 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2009

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-040530-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
1026 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2009

...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS SOUTHWEST BEACHES...
...SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...
...SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RIP CURRENTS: A SOUTHWEST WIND OF 17 TO 23 MPH WILL PRODUCE A
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE SOUTHWEST BEACHES TODAY.

THUNDERSTORMS: ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT AND STALL OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA.

WAVES: SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL PRODUCE SEAS UP TO 7
FEET OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

TORNADOES: DUE TO A FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILE, THERE IS A REMOTE
CHANCE OF A WEAK TORNADO, MAINLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE
SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA.

WIND: WIND GUSTS FROM 40 TO 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT OCCUR.

HAIL: THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PEA SIZE AND SMALLER HAIL WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY MONDAY AND
LINGERING SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.