Coastal Flood Statement 32, NWS Miami, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
341 AM EDT WED AUG 19 2009

...HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY...

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY
THIS MORNING...AS THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS ONCE DEPRESSION ANA
WAS LOCATED FROM WESTERN CUBA NORTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS
OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
TODAY...AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES WEST-NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CWA.
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL
ALSO WORK ACROSS THE AREA TODAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE
NORTHWEST. SO WILL CONTINUE THE LIKELY POPS ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH
FLORIDA TODAY.

THE LATEST NAM AND GFS MODELS STILL SHOW THE PWAT VALUES TO GET
UP TO AROUND 2.3 TO 2.5 INCHES TODAY BEHIND THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA. THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING PRODUCE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO ONE INCH. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE HEAVY
RAINFALL WORDING FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY IN THE ZONES...AND
ISSUE A ESF STATEMENT ABOUT HOW MUCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY ACROSS THE CWA.

THE TROPICAL WAVE SHOULD BE WEST OF SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT...AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS WILL KEEP THE
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW GOING OVER THE CWA TONIGHT. SO THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING SHOULD BE GONE BY
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AS MORE DRIER AND STABLE AIR WORKS INTO THE
AREA BEHIND THE TROPICAL WAVE. SO HAVE SCATTERED POPS OVER THE CWA
THIS EVENING...BEFORE GOING DRY OVER MOST OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT EXCEPT
FOR THE EAST COAST AREAS WHERE ISOLATED POPS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

THE HIGH WILL THEN SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AS
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES MOVES
SLOWLY EASTWARD. THIS WILL KEEP THE WINDS SOUTHEAST BUT BECOME
LIGHT BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE SEA BREEZES TO BE THE
MAIN PLAYERS EACH DAY OVER THE CWA. AT THE SAME TIME...DRIER AIR
WILL ALSO BE OVER THE CWA. SO HAVE LOWER THE POPS TO 20 TO 30
PERCENT FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS...AND 30 TO 40 PERCENT FOR
REST OF THE CWA.

MAJOR HURRICANE BILL IS ALSO FORECAST BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER TO MOVE NORTHWEST LATE THIS WEEK AND PASS WELL EAST OF
SOUTH FLORIDA BETWEEN 65 AND 70 DEGREES LONGITUDE ON FRIDAY.
FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON MAJOR HURRICANE BILL...PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST ADVISORIES FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

.EXTENDED FORECAST...
THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MENTION ABOVE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEKEND WHICH IN TURN WILL PUSH THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DOWN OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
FLORIDA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE STEERING FLOW TO BE SOUTHERLY
BUT LIGHT THIS WEEKEND...AND FOCUS THE MOST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREA. SO THE HIGHEST SCATTERED POPS
WILL BE AROUND THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREA THIS WEEKEND.

THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE TO THE EAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK ALLOWING FOR THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE BACK NORTHWARD
TOWARD CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE STEERING FLOW TO
BECOME EASTERLY AGAIN OVER THE CWA EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND FOCUS THE
MOST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST
COAST METRO AREAS. SO THE HIGHEST SCATTERED POPS WILL BE OVER THE
INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND BISCAYNE
BAY WERE AROUND 20 KNOTS FROM THE EASTERLY DIRECTION. THE WINDS
WILL REMAIN AROUND 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...BEFORE
DECREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS FROM SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS TONIGHT...BEFORE
CONTINUING TO DECREASE TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
MAINLY FROM THE EAST.

THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE SEAS IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS TO BE 4 TO 6
FEET THIS MORNING...BEFORE SLOWLY DECREASING TO LESS THAN 6 FEET
BY TONIGHT. THE SEAS WILL THEN REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE WINDS OVER REST OF THE CWA WATERS WILL BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS THIS
MORNING BEFORE SLOWLY DECREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS BY THIS EVENING
FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE
DOWN TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE SEAS WILL ALSO
BE BELOW 6 FEET TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

SO WILL CONTINUE THE SCA ADVISORY FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND
BISCAYNE BAY UNTIL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE SCEC FOR
REST OF THE CWA WATERS.

THERE IS ALSO A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE EAST COAST
BEACHES OF SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY...DUE TO THE BREEZY TO WINDY
SOUTHEAST WINDS. SO WILL MENTION THIS IN THE ZONES...HWO...AND THE
CFW STATEMENT EARLY THIS MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE THE 35 PERCENT LEVEL
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. SO NO PROBLEMS WITH THE FIRE WEATHER
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  88  79  92  79 / 70 30 30 20
FORT LAUDERDALE  88  80  91  80 / 70 20 30 20
MIAMI            89  80  92  80 / 70 20 30 20
NAPLES           89  77  93  77 / 70 30 30 20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ630-
     AMZ650-AMZ651-AMZ670-AMZ671.

GM...NONE.
&&

LONG TERM...54/BNB
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...47/RHG

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