Coastal Flood Statement 2, NWS Miami, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
631 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2009

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH MAINLY SCT SC EAST COAST
TERMINALS. EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 14Z FOR THE EAST
TERMINALS AND WILL BE GUSTY ABOVE 20 KTS S OF KPBI. BY 00Z, THEY
SLOW DOWN TO 12 KTS OR LESS. FOR KAPF, TOO MUCH WIND FOR A
SEABREEZE BUT THE WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH SPEEDS UP TO 14 KTS. CHANCES OF RAIN ARE TOO SLIGHT TO PUT
IN THE SOUTHEAST TERMINAL TAFS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2009/

..MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES COMING THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND...

DISCUSSION...IN THE SHORT TERM, MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY AND THEN NUDGE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONTINENTAL STATES. AT THE SURFACE,
THERE APPEARS TO BE AN INVERTED TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE GENERAL
EAST FLOW WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA. THE NAM PICKS
UP ON THIS FEATURE WHILE THE GFS DOES NOT. A CLUSTER OF STRATOCU
IS ACCOMPANYING THIS TROUGH EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND ONLY
A FEW LIGHT SHRA SHOWING UP ON AREA RADARS. CONSIDERING THE
OVERALL DRYNESS OF THE ATMOSPHERE, THINK THE MET IS OVERDONE ON
THE SCT POPS IT DEPICTS BUT WILL INTRODUCE MINIMAL CHANCES FOR
SHRA ALONG THE E CST FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. BY THURSDAY AS
MENTIONED ABOVE, THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT E AND THE COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPENING TROUGH WILL ENTER CENTRAL
FLORIDA. THIS WILL INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES AND
WILL LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE AREAS NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD, MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DIGGING TROUGH
INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA ON FRIDAY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE FASTEST MODEL
WITH THE FRONT OFF THE SE COAST BY 12Z FRIDAY WHILE BOTH THE ECMWF
AND NAM SHOW THE FRONT AT THAT TIME JUST NORTH OF THE LAKE. AT ANY
RATE, THE FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MEX GUIDANCE IS
NOW COMING IN WITH HIGH END SCT POPS BUT CONSIDERING ALL THE
MODELS ARE SHOWING MOST OF THE MOISTURE LAGGING BEHIND THE FRONT,
IT IS LIKELY ONLY GOING TO BE MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH LESS OF A CHANCE FOR RAINFALL SO HAVE KEPT LOW END
SCT POPS IN THE GRIDS FOR NOW. IF THERE WAS A DEVELOPING SURFACE
WAVE ALONG THE FRONT FOR MORE OF A CASE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT, THEN I
MIGHT BITE OFF ON A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN BUT THERE IS NOT IN
THIS CASE.

THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THIS FRONT WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF
ANOTHER FREEZE FOR THE AREAS NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. MEX GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO LOWER TEMPERATURES WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN AND IS
NOW SHOWING MID 30S FOR GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES. THERE IS STILL
MUCH UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW COLD IT MIGHT ACTUALLY GET, BUT ALL
MODELS ARE SHOWING QUITE LOW 1000-850MB THICKNESSES AND A SURFACE
HIGH THAT WILL BE CENTERED ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST BY 12Z
SATURDAY (ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF SHOWS IT FARTHER TO THE EAST THAN THE
GFS.) THAT BEING SAID, ALL PEOPLE SHOULD MONITOR THE CHANGING
FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES AT LEAST APPROACHING THE FREEZING MARK
OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. THIS AIRMASS WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS
THE ONE THAT MOVED ACROSS THE REGION LAST WEEK AND IF A FREEZE
DOES OCCUR, IT WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD NOR WILL TEMPERATURES
LIKELY LOWER INTO THE 20S. HOWEVER, A FREEZE OUTLOOK MAY BE ISSUED
IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS IF THIS TREND CONTINUES FOR THE
NORTHERN REGIONS WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY APPROACHING 32 DEGREES
SATURDAY MORNING.

MARINE...WIND HAS INCREASED OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS INCLUDING
BISCAYNE BAY AND HAVE ALREADY UPDATED THE CWF INCLUDING A SCEC
STATEMENTS WITH WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 KT. MODELS HAVE NOW COME
IN LINE WITH THIS INCREASE IN SPEED ASSOCIATED WITH THE TIGHTENING
GRADIENT AND THE INVERTED TROUGH OFF THE SE COAST. THE GRADIENT
WILL BEGIN TO RELAX TONIGHT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING AS A RESULT. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS ON
FRIDAY WITH WIND SHIFTING TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT AND SEAS
BUILDING IN THE GULF STREAM IN EXCESS OF 7 FEET FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS OR CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  79  68  81  66 / -  -  10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  70  80  69 / 10 10 10 10
MIAMI            79  69  81  68 / 10 10 10 10
NAPLES           81  63  81  64 / -  -  10 10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

LONG TERM...30/KOB
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...18/GR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
953 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2009

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-280800-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
953 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2009

...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE EAST COAST...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

REPORTS OF RIP CURRENTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN RECEIVED FROM MIAMI
BEACH THIS MORNING, AND WITH EAST WINDS AT 15 TO 17 MPH AND A LOW
TIDE JUST BEFORE 3 PM A HIGH RISK OF RIPS CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING ALONG THE PALM BEACH, BROWARD, AND MIAMI DADE
BEACHES TODAY ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH AND A LOW TIDE BETWEEN 3 AND
4 PM WEDNESDAY, THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RIP CURRENTS OVER
THE EAST COAST BEACHES.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY. COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND IT WILL BE QUITE CHILLY SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY MORNING. THE NORTHWEST AREAS WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE WILL SEE LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S BUT AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING.

SEAS WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS SATURDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH
STRONG NORTH WINDS WHICH WILL PUSH THE SEAS UP TO 10 FEET IN THE
GULF STREAM. SEAS WILL DECREASE SATURDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.