Wind Advisory 17, NWS Memphis, TN

Clay County, AR, Craighead County, AR, Crittenden County, AR, Cross County, AR, Greene County, AR, Lawrence County, AR, Mississippi County, AR, Poinsett County, AR, Randolph County, AR, St. Francis County, AR, Dunklin County, MO, Pemiscot County, MO, Carroll County, TN, Chester County, TN, Crockett County, TN, Decatur County, TN, Dyer County, TN, Fayette County, TN, Gibson County, TN, Hardeman County, TN, Hardin County, TN, Haywood County, TN, Henderson County, TN, Henry County, TN, Lake County, TN, Lauderdale County, TN, Madison County, TN, McNairy County, TN, Obion County, TN, Shelby County, TN, Tipton County, TN, Weakley County, TN

000 
WWUS74 KMEG 091815
NPWMEG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1215 PM CST WED DEC 9 2009

...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMISH THIS AFTERNOON...

.INTENSE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST.
MEANWHILE...AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...THUS THE WIND ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. BE AWARE...THE COMBINATION OF COLDER AIR AND
THE WIND WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S OVER PARTS OF WEST
TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST ARKANSAS.

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-MOZ113-115-TNZ001>004-
019>021-048>055-088>092-091915-
/O.EXP.KMEG.WI.Y.0017.000000T0000Z-091209T1800Z/
RANDOLPH-CLAY-LAWRENCE-GREENE-CRAIGHEAD-POINSETT-MISSISSIPPI-
CROSS-CRITTENDEN-ST. FRANCIS-DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT-LAKE-OBION-WEAKLEY-
HENRY-DYER-GIBSON-CARROLL-LAUDERDALE-TIPTON-HAYWOOD-CROCKETT-
MADISON-CHESTER-HENDERSON-DECATUR-SHELBY-FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-MCNAIRY-
HARDIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WALNUT RIDGE...PARAGOULD...JONESBORO...
HARRISBURG...BLYTHEVILLE...WYNNE...WEST MEMPHIS...FORREST CITY...
KENNETT...CARUTHERSVILLE...UNION CITY...MARTIN...DRESDEN...
PARIS...DYERSBURG...HUMBOLDT...MILAN...HUNTINGDON...COVINGTON...
JACKSON...LEXINGTON...BARTLETT...GERMANTOWN...COLLIERVILLE...
MEMPHIS...MILLINGTON...SOMERVILLE...BOLIVAR...SAVANNAH
1215 PM CST WED DEC 9 2009

...WIND ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

THE WIND ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
513 AM CST WED DEC 9 2009

.DISCUSSION...10Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A 980 MB LOW OVER
NORTHERN ILLINOIS/SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WITH A TRAILING COLD
FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH INTO EAST TENNESSEE AND ALABAMA. ACROSS THE
MID SOUTH THIS MORNING SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS NORTH
MISSISSIPPI AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AS OF FORECAST ISSUANCE. AS OF
4 AM CST...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA RANGE FROM THE
MID 40S ACROSS EAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND LOWER
TO MIDDLE 50S ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. MAIN CHALLENGE IN
THIS MORNING/S FORECAST PACKAGE IS WIND ADVISORY POTENTIAL.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...A STRONG AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS WILL MOVE
ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY AND INTO EASTERN ONTARIO/WESTERN
QUEBEC BY TONIGHT. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW IS PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KTS ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE MISSOURI/KENTUCKY
BORDER. SHORT TERM MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
WILL REMAIN AROUND 40 KTS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...DECIDED NOT TO
ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME AS SUSTAINED WINDS OVERNIGHT
HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO SATISFY WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.
NONETHELESS...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SHORT TERM TRENDS
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-40 THIS MORNING.

MEANWHILE...INFRARED SATELLITE TRENDS THIS MORNING SHOW CLOUD COVER
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW SPREADING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS. THIS WILL PRODUCE PARTLY SUNNY SKIES NORTH OF I-40 THIS
MORNING WITH SUNNY SKIES FOR THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL OCCUR AROUND SUNRISE WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY FALLING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
FALL BACK INTO THE 20S AT MOST LOCATIONS WITH HIGHS THURSDAY
RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S NORTH TO LOWER 40S ACROSS
NORTH MISSISSIPPI.

00Z WRF/GFS SHORT TERM MODELS IN ADDITION TO THE 00Z ECMWF
INDICATE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST FRIDAY AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
CONFIDENCE IN MOISTURE RETURN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY IS LOW DUE TO
MODELS HAVING DIFFICULTY RESOLVING THE TRANSITION FROM ZONAL FLOW
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AS A RESULT...DECIDED TO REMOVE POPS DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY AS BEST MOISTURE IS ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...00Z GFS/ECMWF LONG
RANGE MODELS INDICATE OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
SURFACE LOW MOVING ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL SPREAD NORTH BUT REMAIN
PREDOMINANTLY ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI FRIDAY NIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES FALL BACK INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S ACROSS THE
MID SOUTH. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN AS
RAIN ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND CONFIDENCE FOR WINTER
PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT IS LOW BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE.
LATER SHIFTS WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL AS
ADDITIONAL MODEL DATA ARRIVES. STAY TUNED...

MODELS INDICATE RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MID
SOUTH ON SATURDAY THEN ENDING BY SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BRINGING AN
ADDITIONAL CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA. KEPT POPS IN THE LONG TERM
ON THE LOW END DUE TO THE LARGE MODEL SOLUTION VARIABILITY FROM
RUN TO RUN.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS

COLD FRONT NOW TO THE EAST OF TAF SITES...AS WINDS HAVE SHIFTED
TO THE WEST. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE NIGHT GUSTING
TO 25-30MPH. WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST BY 12-15Z
AND GUSTS WILL INCREASE TO 32-38MPH. CEILINGS POSE THE TRICKIEST
FORECAST...WITH CONFIDENCE THAT PREVAILING CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR
AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE TEMPORARY AT ALL LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER...NOT AS CONFIDENT THAT CIGS WILL BECOME VFR BETWEEN
13-15Z..AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN REGION. WINDS EXPECTED TO TAPER
OFF...WITH CLEAR SKIES BY 22Z.

JAB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  44  23  43  24 /   0   0   0   0
MKL  45  21  38  19 /   0   0   0   0
JBR  42  21  38  21 /   0   0   0   0
TUP  50  25  44  24 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
418 AM CST WED DEC 9 2009

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-101100-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
418 AM CST WED DEC 9 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.