Severe Thunderstorm Warning 71, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
242 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2009

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REDEVELOPED ACROSS ARKANSAS AND
NORTH MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA. ONCE AGAIN...
THINK THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL WITH ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS. AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ARE UNDER A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT WHICH WILL
LIKELY BE CANCELLED EARLY AS THIS SYSTEM TRACKS QUICKLY TO THE
NORTHEAST. AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ARE UNDER A
DIFFERENT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM
CDT. THINK THE BULK OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT THE FORECAST
AREA BY 10 PM CDT. DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT AS CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST
AREA.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE U.S. ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE ROTATES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. DEPENDING
ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE...A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA AS A
SECOND COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. NOT TERRIBLY
CONFIDENT ON THE COVERAGE OF RAIN SO ONLY KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES OF
RAIN IN THE FORECAST. CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MUCH OF TUESDAY SO HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES. UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH BY MID WEEK AS DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER WEATHER WILL BE
EXPECTED. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY...WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REALLY TAKE
OFF. TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

KNS

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS

POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR KFSM AT 1730Z...DRIFTING EAST
SOUTHEAST. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE UPPER
LOW...FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MO. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS
TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER AR DURING THE AFTERNOON.
UNLIKE THE STORMS THAT LIFTED THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH EARLIER TODAY...
THESE STORMS WILL CARRY A POTENTIAL FOR HAIL. BY 00Z...EXPECT STORMS
TO CLEAR THE KMEM AREA.

INTRODUCED SOME POST FRONTAL MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING. DISSIPATION OF
THESE CIGS BEYOND 06Z WILL A BIT TRICKY. HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH
THE GFS LAMP GUIDANCE TIMING...GIVEN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE
NAM MODEL. MONDAY MORNING DAYLIGHT HOURS SHOULD SEE GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS.

PWB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  52  67  49  66 /  20  10  10  10
MKL  51  64  44  64 /  40  10  20  10
JBR  49  68  45  65 /  20  10  20  10
TUP  53  68  48  68 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1245 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2009

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-201945-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
1245 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
MIDSOUTH THROUGH 9 PM CDT. LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF
BALLS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD...THOUGH DAMAGING WINDS OF 60 MPH
OR GREATER ARE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NECESSARY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AND
FORECAST AREA THROUGH 9 PM CDT TODAY.

KNS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
419 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0240 PM     HAIL             4 SE SENATOBIA          34.58N 89.92W
04/19/2009  E0.88 INCH       TATE               MS   PUBLIC

            NICKEL SIZE HAIL REPORTED AT BACK ACRES COUNTRY CLUB.

0242 PM     HAIL             SCOBEY                  33.93N 89.88W
04/19/2009  E0.75 INCH       YALOBUSHA          MS   PUBLIC

            PENNY SIZE HAIL IN SCOBEY.

0312 PM     HAIL             3 S OXFORD              34.32N 89.53W
04/19/2009  E0.75 INCH       LAFAYETTE          MS   PUBLIC

            PENNY SIZE HAIL REPORTED 3 MILES SOUTH OF OXFORD.

0318 PM     HAIL             8 S HOLLY SPRINGS       34.66N 89.44W
04/19/2009  E1.75 INCH       MARSHALL           MS   PUBLIC

            GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN WATERFORD OFF OF HIGHWAY
            7.

0325 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BRUCE                   33.99N 89.34W
04/19/2009                   CALHOUN            MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN REPORTED THROUGHOUT THE CITY OF BRUCE.

0325 PM     HAIL             BRUCE                   33.99N 89.34W
04/19/2009  E0.75 INCH       CALHOUN            MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            PENNY SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN BRUCE.

0358 PM     HAIL             HOULKA                  34.03N 89.02W
04/19/2009  E0.88 INCH       CHICKASAW          MS   PUBLIC

            NICKEL SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN HOULKA.

0405 PM     HAIL             12 ESE NEW ALBANY       34.42N 88.83W
04/19/2009  E1.00 INCH       UNION              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN ELLISTOWN.

0411 PM     HAIL             7 NW SALTILLO           34.45N 88.78W
04/19/2009  E0.88 INCH       LEE                MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NICKEL SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN CORRONA.

0414 PM     HAIL             BLAIR                   34.45N 88.73W
04/19/2009  E1.75 INCH       LEE                MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN BLAIR.

&&

KNS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
422 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0240 PM     HAIL             4 SE SENATOBIA          34.58N 89.92W
04/19/2009  E0.88 INCH       TATE               MS   PUBLIC

            NICKEL SIZE HAIL REPORTED AT BACK ACRES COUNTRY CLUB.

0242 PM     HAIL             SCOBEY                  33.93N 89.88W
04/19/2009  E0.75 INCH       YALOBUSHA          MS   PUBLIC

            PENNY SIZE HAIL IN SCOBEY.

0312 PM     HAIL             3 S OXFORD              34.32N 89.53W
04/19/2009  E0.75 INCH       LAFAYETTE          MS   PUBLIC

            PENNY SIZE HAIL REPORTED 3 MILES SOUTH OF OXFORD.

0318 PM     HAIL             8 S HOLLY SPRINGS       34.66N 89.44W
04/19/2009  E1.75 INCH       MARSHALL           MS   PUBLIC

            GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN WATERFORD OFF OF HIGHWAY
            7.

0325 PM     HAIL             BRUCE                   33.99N 89.34W
04/19/2009  E0.75 INCH       CALHOUN            MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            PENNY SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN BRUCE.

0325 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BRUCE                   33.99N 89.34W
04/19/2009                   CALHOUN            MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN REPORTED THROUGHOUT THE CITY OF BRUCE.

0358 PM     HAIL             HOULKA                  34.03N 89.02W
04/19/2009  E0.88 INCH       CHICKASAW          MS   PUBLIC

            NICKEL SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN HOULKA.

0405 PM     HAIL             12 ESE NEW ALBANY       34.42N 88.83W
04/19/2009  E1.00 INCH       UNION              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN ELLISTOWN.

0411 PM     HAIL             7 NW SALTILLO           34.45N 88.78W
04/19/2009  E0.88 INCH       LEE                MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NICKEL SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN CORRONA.

0414 PM     HAIL             BLAIR                   34.45N 88.73W
04/19/2009  E1.75 INCH       LEE                MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN BLAIR.

0420 PM     HAIL             GUNTOWN                 34.44N 88.66W
04/19/2009  E1.75 INCH       LEE                MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN GUNTOWN.

&&

KNS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
427 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0240 PM     HAIL             4 SE SENATOBIA          34.58N 89.92W
04/19/2009  E0.88 INCH       TATE               MS   PUBLIC

            NICKEL SIZE HAIL REPORTED AT BACK ACRES COUNTRY CLUB.

0242 PM     HAIL             SCOBEY                  33.93N 89.88W
04/19/2009  E0.75 INCH       YALOBUSHA          MS   PUBLIC

            PENNY SIZE HAIL IN SCOBEY.

0312 PM     HAIL             3 S OXFORD              34.32N 89.53W
04/19/2009  E0.75 INCH       LAFAYETTE          MS   PUBLIC

            PENNY SIZE HAIL REPORTED 3 MILES SOUTH OF OXFORD.

0318 PM     HAIL             8 S HOLLY SPRINGS       34.66N 89.44W
04/19/2009  E1.75 INCH       MARSHALL           MS   PUBLIC

            GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN WATERFORD OFF OF HIGHWAY
            7.

0325 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BRUCE                   33.99N 89.34W
04/19/2009                   CALHOUN            MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN REPORTED THROUGHOUT THE CITY OF BRUCE.

0325 PM     HAIL             BRUCE                   33.99N 89.34W
04/19/2009  E0.75 INCH       CALHOUN            MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            PENNY SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN BRUCE.

0358 PM     HAIL             HOULKA                  34.03N 89.02W
04/19/2009  E0.88 INCH       CHICKASAW          MS   PUBLIC

            NICKEL SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN HOULKA.

0405 PM     HAIL             12 ESE NEW ALBANY       34.42N 88.83W
04/19/2009  E1.00 INCH       UNION              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN ELLISTOWN.

0411 PM     HAIL             7 NW SALTILLO           34.45N 88.78W
04/19/2009  E0.88 INCH       LEE                MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NICKEL SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN CORRONA.

0414 PM     HAIL             BLAIR                   34.45N 88.73W
04/19/2009  E1.75 INCH       LEE                MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN BLAIR.

0420 PM     HAIL             GUNTOWN                 34.44N 88.66W
04/19/2009  E1.75 INCH       LEE                MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN GUNTOWN.

0423 PM     HAIL             GUNTOWN                 34.44N 88.66W
04/19/2009  E1.50 INCH       LEE                MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN GUNTOWN.

&&

KNS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
431 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2009

MSZ002-008-012-013-192200-
MARSHALL MS-TATE MS-LAFAYETTE MS-PANOLA MS-
431 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2009

...THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR...

  NORTHWESTERN LAFAYETTE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
  SOUTH CENTRAL MARSHALL COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
  NORTHEASTERN PANOLA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
  SOUTHEASTERN TATE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL WAS LOCATED 5
MILES NORTHEAST OF JOHN W KYLE STATE PARK AT 432 PM CDT...MOVING EAST
AT 35 MPH.

THIS STORM IS INTENSIFYING AND COULD BECOME SEVERE RAPIDLY.

PEOPLE IN LAFAYETTE...MARSHALL...PANOLA AND TATE COUNTIES...INCLUDING
LOCATIONS NEAR JOHN W KYLE STATE PARK...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM
CLOSELY. THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT ALSO INCLUDES SARDIS LAKE.

.A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ALERT
AREA.

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