Severe Thunderstorm Warning 417, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
329 PM CDT SUN SEP 6 2009

.DISCUSSION...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...AND
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE. DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN A NEUTRAL
MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE ARE ALLOWING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES OF SOME STORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS WITH LOSS OF HEATING ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS
SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY ALONG THE
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY IN TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST TENNESSEE.
PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE AREA WIDE OVERNIGHT WITH
CONTINUED MOIST LOW LEVELS.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LINGER THROUGH MONDAY AS H5 TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES EAST. THE MIDSOUTH
SHOULD THEN DRY OUT THROUGH TUESDAY EXCEPT FOR A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS ALONG NORTHEAST TENNESSEE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG
WILL AGAIN BE A FACTOR TUESDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THRUSDAY...MID/UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD
INTO THE MIDSOUTH IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL THEN RETURN. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THURSDAY
AS DIURNAL HEATING COULD SPARK A FEW PULSE STORMS WITH LOW LEVELS
REMAINING FAIRLY UNSTABLE. THE GFS ALSO IS A BIT SLOW IN BRINGING
IN UPPER RIDGING FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SLOWLY COMING INTO
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF A BROAD H5 TROUGH PUSHING EAST OUT OF
THE GREAT PLAINS. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE A BIT SLOW BRINGING
PRECIPITATION INTO THE MIDSOUTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A
COLD FRONT. THE GFS IS A BIT QUICKER. CONTINUED TO COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EITHER WAY...SOME VERY
COOL WEATHER LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CCD

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS

GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN IL. A
SECONDARY MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WAS ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE UPPER LOW...AND EXTENDED LONG THE AR/MO BORDER. SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY... THE MS RIVER DELTA HAD RECEIVED A FAIR AMOUNT OF LATE
MORNING SUN AND HAD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE AT 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

EXPECT ISOLATED TSRA TO CONTINUE NEAR KJBR...ENHANCED BY THE
NORTHERN AR SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE. KMEM A LITTLE FURTHER REMOVED
FROM THE MOST FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT... AND HAVE KEPT
AFTERNOON TEMPO TSRA OUT OF THE KMEM TAF FOR NOW. BEST WEST TN TSRA
COVERAGE LIKELY TO BE NORTH OF KMKL...NEAR THE KY BORDER.

IFR/LIFR CIGS EXPECTED AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...LIKELY PRECEDED
BY PATCHY IFR FOG AT THE SMALLER TERMINALS.

PWB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  69  88  69  89 /  20  30  10  10
MKL  63  86  63  87 /  30  30  10  20
JBR  64  87  64  88 /  20  20  10  10
TUP  67  87  66  89 /  30  30  10  10

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
306 PM CDT SUN SEP 6 2009

ARZ028-TNZ048-062045-
MISSISSIPPI AR-LAUDERDALE TN-
306 PM CDT SUN SEP 6 2009

...THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR...

  NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
  WEST CENTRAL LAUDERDALE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND 40 TO 50
MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED OVER DELL AT 306 PM CDT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5
MPH.

PEOPLE IN LAUDERDALE AND MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES...INCLUDING LOCATIONS
NEAR BLYTHEVILLE...GOSNELL AND LUXORA...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM
CLOSELY THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM CDT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
411 PM CDT SUN SEP 6 2009

TNZ002-003-019-020-051-062200-
CROCKETT TN-GIBSON TN-WEAKLEY TN-OBION TN-DYER TN-
411 PM CDT SUN SEP 6 2009

...THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR...

  CROCKETT COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  EASTERN DYER COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  GIBSON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  SOUTH CENTRAL OBION COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  SOUTHWESTERN WEAKLEY COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND 40
TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED FROM 4 MILES EAST OF OBION TO 8 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF EATON AT 411 PM CDT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE AND NO WARNINGS ARE
ANTICIPATED.

PEOPLE IN CROCKETT...DYER...GIBSON...OBION AND WEAKLEY COUNTIES...
INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR HUMBOLDT...MARTIN AND TRENTON...SHOULD
MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CDT.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
600 PM CDT SUN SEP 6 2009

MSZ021-022-062330-
YALOBUSHA MS-CALHOUN MS-
600 PM CDT SUN SEP 6 2009

...THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR...

  NORTHWESTERN CALHOUN COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
  NORTHEASTERN YALOBUSHA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND 40 TO 50
MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 6 MILES EAST OF VELMA AT 600 PM CDT. THE STORM
WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

THIS STORM IS INTENSIFYING AND COULD BECOME SEVERE.

PEOPLE IN CALHOUN AND YALOBUSHA COUNTIES...INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR
WATER VALLEY...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY THIS SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM CDT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
603 PM CDT SUN SEP 6 2009

TNZ020-051-052-054-062345-
CROCKETT TN-GIBSON TN-HENDERSON TN-MADISON TN-
603 PM CDT SUN SEP 6 2009

...THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR...

  SOUTHEASTERN CROCKETT COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  SOUTHEASTERN GIBSON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  WEST CENTRAL HENDERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  MADISON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND 40 TO 50
MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 3 MILES EAST OF FAIRVIEW AT 603 PM CDT...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

THIS STORM IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE AND NO WARNINGS ARE
ANTICIPATED.

PEOPLE IN CROCKETT...GIBSON...HENDERSON AND MADISON COUNTIES...
INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR JACKSON...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY
THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM CDT.

TLSJR