Severe Thunderstorm Warning 385, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
644 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2009

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2009/

.DISCUSSION...
REMNANTS OF THIS MORNING/S MCS OVER IL/IN HAVE DROPPED INTO KY AND
EASTERN TN AT DISCUSSION TIME. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED
WEST OF THE MCS THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MO. THIS SCATTERED
LINE OF STORMS APPEARED HAVE FORMED ALONG A WEAK BAROCLINIC
ZONE... WHILE A MORE PRONOUNCED SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS SLOWLY
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH IA AND EASTERN NE. NOT CONFIDENT THAT
THESE STORMS WILL PERSIST INTO THE NIGHTTIME...PARTICULARLY WEST OF
THE MS RIVER. HAVE KEPT POPS DOWN INTO THE 20S/30S AT MEMPHIS AT
JACKSON.

ONE MORE POTENTIAL ROUND OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT / EARLY THURSDAY... BEFORE THE SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE EXTENDS ITS REACH INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. HEAT
INDICES WILL LIKELY REACH 105 AT MEMPHIS AND THE EASTERN AR/NORTHWEST
MS DELTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE INCLUDED EXCESSIVE HEAT MENTION
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. MIDSHIFT WILL LIKELY NEED TO
ISSUE HEAT ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
MIDSOUTH FOR WEDNESDAY. GFS/NAM MOS HAVE YET TO KEY IN ON THE
SIGNIFICANT EVAPOTRANSPIRATION FOLLOWING THE RECENT RAINS.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE 12Z GFS KEEPS THE MIDSOUTH BETWEEN
THE SEA BREEZE STORMS ALONG THE GULF COAST AND THE NORTHWEST FLOW
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPPER MIDWEST. WHAT REMAINS FOR THE MIDSOUTH
IS HOT HUMID AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. MAY SEE ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS RETURN LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK... AS
THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER LIFTS EAST TO THE CAROLINAS.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN FOR THIS EVENING WILL BE SEVERE MCS
TRACKING SOUTHEAST OUT OF WESTERN KENTUCKY INTO PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE. AIRMASS REMAINS AT LEAST MODERATELY UNSTABLE
TO THE SOUTH OF THIS COMPLEX...YET LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE APPEARS
STRONG JUST TO THE WEST OF THIS COMPLEX. SO THERE STILL REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR WEST THIS COMPLEX WILL BACKBUILD. DECIDED
TO INCLUDE TEMPO FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AT MKL FOR +TSRA ALONG WITH
OCCASIONAL IFR/MVFR CEILINGS/VISBYS AND STRONG WIND GUST
POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TOO LOW AT ALL OTHER
SITES TO INCLUDE TEMPOS...AND HAVE MAINTAINED VFR CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TOMORROW MORNING WITH PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

JLH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  75  94  76  95 /  30  30  10  10
MKL  72  92  70  92 /  40  30  10  10
JBR  73  93  73  94 /  40  30  10  10
TUP  73  94  71  93 /  20  30  20  20

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
702 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2009

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-060215-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
702 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF
A JONESBORO TO SAVANNAH LINE. DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS WILL BE
THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH
FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY OVER
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND MOST OF WEST
TENNESSEE. DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL APPROACH AND POSSIBLY
EXCEED 105 DEGREES OVER THE EASTERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI DELTA...AS WELL AS THE MEMPHIS METRO AREA. A HEAT
ADVISORY MAY BE ISSUED WEDNESDAY FOR THESE AREAS. THE OPPRESSIVE
HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE LATTER HALF OF
THIS WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED TONIGHT.