Severe Thunderstorm Warning 247, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1028 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO RAISE THE POPS CONSIDERABLY ACROSS ABOUT THE NORTHERN
ONE-THIRD OF THE MID-SOUTH...FROM PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
AR...ACROSS THE MO BOOTHEEL...INTO PORTIONS OF WEST TN. SATELLITE
SHOWS WARMING TOPS (WEAKENING) WITH THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES OVER
SOUTHERN MO. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALREADY PUSHING INTO NORTHEAST AR. A PUSH OF COOLER AIR AND AN
ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS ALSO MOVING INTO NORTHEAST AR.
THINK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO
NORTHEAST AR...THE MO BOOTHEEL...AND MUCH OF WEST TN DURING THE
DAY. THE ATMOSPHERE IS FORECAST TO BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE
LEADING TO A RESTRENGTHENING OF THE STORMS. LIFTED INDICES WILL
DECREASE TO AROUND MINUS 8 WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES BETWEEN 3000
AND 5000 J/KG. VERY MOIST AIR CONTINUES TO FLOW INTO THE REGION
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER AND MID 70S. THINK DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND DANGEROUS CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTING ARE ALL POSSIBLE.

TO THE SOUTH FROM PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL AR INTO MUCH OF NORTH
MS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE STRONGER HELPING TO SUPPRESS MUCH
OF THE CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES IN THIS REGION WILL CLIMB INTO THE
LOWER AND MID 90S WITH HEAT INDICES REACHING AROUND 100 DEGREES IN
SOME SPOTS.

JCL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009/

DISCUSSION...09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A QUASI-STATIONARY
BOUNDARY FROM NORTH/CENTRAL ALABAMA BACK THROUGH NORTH
MISSISSIPPI...WEST TENNESSEE AND EAST ARKANSAS. INFRARED
SATELLITE/REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS SHOW A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
OVER PORTIONS OF EAST KANSAS INTO WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI NEAR
KANSAS CITY. TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ACROSS THE MID SOUTH RANGE
FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER AND UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA. MAIN CONCERN
IN THIS MORNING/S FORECAST PACKAGE IS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL ANTICIPATED LATER TODAY.

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...A MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WHICH DEVELOPED OVER KANSAS YESTERDAY EVENING
BRIEFLY WEAKENED AS IT MOVED INTO EASTERN MISSOURI DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...THIS MCS HAS REDEVELOPED ACROSS
EASTERN KANSAS OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO AND HAS BEEN SHOWING SOME
PROPAGATION TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST. BOTH THE NAM/GFS SHORT TERM
MODELS INDICATE A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND INTERACTING WITH A VERY WARM AND MOIST
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
LEANED TOWARD THE NAM SOLUTION FOR TODAY BASED ON THE OVERNIGHT
CONVECTIVE TRENDS. STEEP 700-500 MB LAYER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AT
OR ABOVE 7 C/KM...SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES AT OR ABOVE 3000
J/KG...AND LI/S AROUND -9 INTERACTING WITH THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH/MCS ACTIVITY SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM MARKED TREE ARKANSAS TO
JACKSON AND SAVANNAH TENNESSEE FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT BECOME SEVERE ARE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. FURTHER SOUTH...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE MINIMAL AT BEST AS A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SUPPRESSES ANY
CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING.

SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL FINALLY BEGIN
TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE MID SOUTH WEDNESDAY WITH
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONFINED TO NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY. AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
STRENGTHEN...VERY HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S ARE EXPECTED
WITH HEAT INDICIES APPROACHING 100 DEGREES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG RANGE...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...00Z ECMWF/GFS LONG RANGE
MODELS STILL IN AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND
CONTINUED CHANCE POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. SURFACE AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD BACK IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED AT ALL TAF SITES AT 11Z.  TUP MAY
EXPERIENCE MVFR VSBYS THRU 14Z DUE TO PATCHY FOG.  A STATIONARY
FRONT FROM SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE THE MAIN TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION LATER TODAY.  JBR AND MKL WILL
HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS THRU 17/02Z.

OKULSKI

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  93  75  95  76 /  30  10  10  10
MKL  90  71  93  71 /  50  10  10  10
JBR  89  73  95  72 /  70  10  10  10
TUP  93  70  95  71 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1104 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-171100-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY- ST.
FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA- UNION-
WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA- 1100 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING FROM PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...ACROSS THE
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...INTO MUCH OF WEST TENNESSEE. THE AREA AFFECTED
IS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM HARRISBURG ARKANSAS TO
COVINGTON TENNESSEE TO DECATURVILLE TENNESSEE. THE BEST TIME FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE FROM NOW UNTIL 7 PM. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE
HAIL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING ARE ALL POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION HAS BEEN REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA.

JCL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1122 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009

MOZ115-TNZ001-002-019-161700-
PEMISCOT MO-LAKE TN-OBION TN-DYER TN-
1122 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009

...THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR...

  NORTHERN DYER COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  LAKE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  OBION COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  EAST CENTRAL PEMISCOT COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...

PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED FROM 14
MILES NORTHWEST OF TIPTONVILLE TO 24 MILES WEST OF COTTONWOOD GROVE
AT 1122 AM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN DYER...LAKE...OBION AND PEMISCOT COUNTIES...INCLUDING
LOCATIONS NEAR DYERSBURG...REELFOOT LAKE STATE PARK AND UNION CITY...
SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS
IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CDT. THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT ALSO
INCLUDES REELFOOT LAKE.

.A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ALERT
AREA.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1134 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1055 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 S CAMPBELL            36.48N 90.07W
06/16/2009                   DUNKLIN            MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ONE TELEPHONE POLE KNOCKED DOWN AND DOORS OFF A STORAGE
            SHED WERE RIPPED OFF.

&&

JAB

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