Severe Thunderstorm Warning 216, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
619 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2009

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2009/

DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN ARKANSAS
EARLY THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
DEVELOPING ALONG A BOUNDARY ARCING FROM TULSA TO HARRISON TO
BRINKLEY. A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS POSITIONED OVER NORTH MS.

NEEDLESS TO SAY...VERY ACTIVE WEATHER WILL OCCUR OVER THE MID SOUTH
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. TODAY...THUNDERSTORMS
WILL TREK ACROSS ARKANSAS THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFFECT WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. EVENTUALLY THESE STORMS WILL
DISSIPATE AND ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COMPLEX COULD COME ACROSS WITH A PUNCH.
THESE STORMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THEY WILL MOVE INTO AN AXIS OF VERY UNSTABLE AIR
WILL THAT WILL BISECT THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST
MODELS INDICATE CAPES NEAR 2500 J/KG AND LI/S FROM -6 TO -10. KEPT
RAIN CHANCES SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE AS THE REGION REMAINS ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL STEER THEM INTO THE AREA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...ONGOING CONVECTION FROM THE AFTERNOON WILL MOVE OUT BY
EARLY EVENING. REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD AFFECT
MAINLY AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 AS THE FRONT MOVES
SLOWLY NORTH.

MONDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH. THIS WILL
COINCIDE WITH HIGHER POPS FARTHER NORTH. MUCH THE SAME CAN BE
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES SLOWLY DIMINISHING. SLIGHT
RISKS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE FRONT WHERE
THE BEST INSTABILITY RESIDES THROUGH TUESDAY. AC

LONG RANGE...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
00Z ECMWF/GFS IN LARGE DISAGREEMENT FOR FRIDAY AND BEYOND WITH
RESPECT TO THE HANDLING OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE 18Z/00Z GFS BRINGS A
STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY
WHILE THE 18Z/00Z ECMWF KEEPS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA AT LEAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY AND THEN
BRINGING A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. AS A
RESULT...LEANED LONG RANGE FORECAST TOWARDS THE ECMWF WHICH TENDS
TO OUTPERFORM THE GFS...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE LATE SPRING/SUMMER
MONTHS.

CJC

&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM HAS ARRIVED AT MEM/JBR AS OF 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
AS AS RESULT...HAVE ADDED TEMPOS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 15Z AS
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. AFTER THIS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DEPARTS TAF SITES...THINK THERE MAY BE A DRY
PERIOD UNTIL AROUND 20-21Z WHEN ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP AND KEPT TEMPOS GOING BETWEEN 21Z-00Z. MODELS STILL
CONTINUING TO INDICATE ANOTHER CONVECTIVE SYSTEM AFFECTING TAF
SITES TOWARDS THE END OF THE 12Z TAF CYCLE LATE TONIGHT.

CJC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  89  74  90  73 /  60  50  30  20
MKL  89  68  86  69 /  70  70  40  30
JBR  87  69  87  71 /  80  70  40  20
TUP  90  69  91  71 /  40  40  20  10

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
351 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2009

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-151100-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
351 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
MID SOUTH. THE MAIN THREATS FROM STORMS THAT MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE BEST TIME FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS
FROM 4 AM THROUGH 8 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY
FOR ALL OF WEST TENNESSEE...NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...EXTREME NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL. THE MAIN THREATS FROM
STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED TODAY AND TONIGHT AND AGAIN...
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
815 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2009

MSZ004-005-009-014-141345-
ALCORN MS-TIPPAH MS-PRENTISS MS-UNION MS-
815 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2009

...THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR...

  SOUTHERN ALCORN COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
  PRENTISS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
  SOUTHERN TIPPAH COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
  NORTHEASTERN UNION COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND 40 TO 50
MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTH OF KEOWNVILLE AT 815 AM CDT...
MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

THIS STORM IS INTENSIFYING AND COULD BECOME SEVERE RAPIDLY.

PEOPLE IN ALCORN...PRENTISS...TIPPAH AND UNION COUNTIES...INCLUDING
LOCATIONS NEAR BOONEVILLE AND RIPLEY...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM
CLOSELY.