Severe Thunderstorm Warning 155, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
215 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2009

.DISCUSSION...

THE MAIN CONCERNS ARE RAIN CHANCES...STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...
AND HEAVY RAIN/LOCALIZED FLOODING POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY.

LATEST MODELS WERE IN FAIR TO GOOD AGREEMENT. WILL USE A BLEND OF
THEM WITH NO PREFERENCE FOR ONE MODEL OVER ANOTHER.

DO NOT PLAN ON MAKING ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

AT 2 PM CDT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AND FORECAST AREA...VERY WARM AND
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WERE OCCURRING WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
MAINLY 86 TO 92 DEGREES...EXCEPT WHERE SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE
OCCURRING. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING
OVER THE AREA...MAINLY NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WAS WEAKENING AND LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WAS MOVING EAST.

THROUGH 10 PM CDT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA...SOME OF WHICH
MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 60 MPH...HAIL UP TO
THE SIZE OF QUARTERS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IN LESS THAN ONE HOUR WHICH MAY CAUSE
FLASH FLOODING. THE MICROBURST POTENTIAL REMAINS RATHER HIGH WITH
LIFTED INDICES -4 TO -8...SBCAPE 2000-3000 J/KG...AND DOWNDRAFT
CAPE 1000-1300 J/KG. ONLY EXPECT 20 TO 30 PERCENT COVERAGE OVER
THE AREA WITH MOST ARES STAYING DRY. MOST STORMS WILL DIMINISH BY
10 PM CDT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

THE REST OF TONIGHT WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY. PLAN TO KEEP LOW RAIN
CHANCES...20 TO 30 PERCENT...NEAR AND NORTH OF I-40 AS A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS MAY LINGER...PARTICULARLY OVER NE AR AND MO
BOOTHEEL WHERE BEST 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED. MODEL
GUIDANCE LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S APPEAR REASONABLE.

WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE AS
DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER LIFT MOVE IN WITH THE APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. WILL TIER RAIN CHANCES FROM 30 PERCENT NEAR
ABERDEEN MS TO NEAR 80 PERCENT NEAR WALNUT RIDGE AR. THE BULK OF
THE ACTIVITY WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME STORMS WILL
BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS...HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...
AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING AS THE
AIR WILL BE UNSTABLE WITH LIFTED INDICES -3 TO -7. DOUBT
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WILL OCCUR. CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN
SLIGHTLY...BUT WILL GO WARMER THAN 12Z MAVMOS NUMBERS WITH HIGHS
MID 80S OVER THE MO BOOTHEEL TO LOWER 90S OVER NORTH MS WITH SOME
MORNING SUN.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...LATEST MODELS SUGGESTED A
SLOWER AND WETTER SOLUTION DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WILL MONITOR
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE AREA...PARTICULARLY NORTH OF A FORREST
CITY AR TO MEMPHIS TN TO CORINTH MS LINE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...NORTH OF THE FORECAST SURFACE LOW TRACK...WHICH
MAY BRING A WIDESPREAD 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL TO THESE AREAS.
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME...BUT
WILL MONITOR. DEFINITELY APPEARS ALL AREAS WILL GET WET AND ALL
AREAS SHOULD GET AT LEAST 0.50 INCH OF RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. USED OF BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN ON THURSDAY
WITH HIGHS NOT GETTING OUT OF THE 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...DRIER AIR MOVING IN WILL ALLOW FOR
CLEARING AND COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO THE AREA WITH
LOWS 55 TO 65 AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S ON FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...DRY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CAN BE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD.
WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT OF FORECAST UNTIL MONDAY WHEN UPPER
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN. THE HOTTEST AIR OF THE SEASON MAY
OCCUR SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY MONDAY. GENERALLY WILL GO ABOVE 12Z
MEXMOS NUMBERS FOR TEMPERATURES.

MBS

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY
SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON THEN LIGHT SOUTH WINDS
TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

ARS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  72  88  66  74 /  20  60  70  50
MKL  67  88  65  74 /  20  60  80  70
JBR  68  85  63  74 /  30  70  90  50
TUP  68  90  68  82 /  10  40  60  70

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1047 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2009

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-031800-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
1047 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
10 PM CDT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AS WELL AS NEAR THE TENNESSEE
RIVER.

THE MAIN HAZARDS ARE DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60 MPH AND HAIL UP TO THE
SIZE OF QUARTERS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES AND
FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL AS STORMS WILL MOVE SLOWLY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE MID SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY AND MOVE
SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE
AIRMASS WILL REMAIN MODERATELY UNSTABLE. AS A RESULT A FEW STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING AREAWIDE AND ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI ON
THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY IN A FEW LOCATIONS THROUGH
10 PM CDT TODAY.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AREAWIDE AND ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI ON THURSDAY.

MBS

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