Severe Thunderstorm Warning 143, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
342 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2009

.DISCUSSION...
TROPICAL AIRMASS REMAINED OVER THE MIDSOUTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGED FROM 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES. GOES
VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED TWO PRONOUNCED CIRCULATIONS...THE REMNANT
OF OUR RECENT TROPICAL SYSTEM NOW NORTH OF KANSAS CITY...AND THE
OTHER OVER NORTHWEST AL. THE LATER LOW PRESSURE WAS THE REMNANTS
OF A SHORTWAVE THAT TRACKED ACROSS CENTRAL MS YESTERDAY. LOW LEVEL
DIVERGENCE BETWEEN THE TWO CIRCULATIONS HAD EARLIER CREATED CLEAR
SKIES OVER AR...ALLOWING STRONG HEATING TO OCCUR. 100MB MIXED
LAYER CAPES HAD REACHED 2000 J/KG OVER CENTRAL AR.

EXPECT GRADUALLY DECREASING LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY OVER THE
MIDSOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING. GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY APPEARED
TO SHOW A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER EAST TX. NOT CLEAR IF THIS
FEATURE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BREAK A STRENGTHENING CONVECTIVE
CAP OVER THE MIDSOUTH WITH IT ARRIVES TO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY
LATER THIS EVENING. 18Z NAM DOESN/T APPEAR TOO IMPRESSED IF QPF IS
ANY INDICATION. IN ANY CASE...WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS THIS
EVENING...DROPPING TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT.

A PACIFIC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE STILL APPEARS ON TRACK FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD EFFECTIVELY END THE RECENT MOIST SPELL ONCE
AN OPEN UPPER LEVEL TROF DROPS THROUGH ON THURSDAY.

WITH A 584DM 500MB RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...
EXPECT DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS OVER THE MIDSOUTH FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP OUT AROUND 5 DEGREES
WARMER THAN NORMAL... WITH SOME LOCATIONS POSSIBLY SEEING 90.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS

MVFR CONDITIONS AT MEM/MKL ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES THIS
AFTERNOON. KEPT PREVAILING VCTS IN ALL TAFS UNTIL 04Z...WITH A
TEMPO PERIOD MAINLY BETWEEN 20-22Z. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
TO END AROUND 04Z AS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAINLY BEING DRIVEN BY
DAYTIME INSTABILITY. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 7-8 KTS EXPECTED TO DROP
TO 3 TO 5 KTS TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT BUT LEFT
LOW CEILINGS OUT FOR NOW DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

CJC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  70  85  66  81 /  30  40  20  20
MKL  66  84  66  81 /  30  50  30  30
JBR  68  84  63  79 /  30  40  20  20
TUP  68  86  67  84 /  30  50  20  20

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
128 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2009

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-271015-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
128 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WILL
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRAIT LINE WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH. A FEW
FUNNEL CLOUDS OR VERY WEAK LAND SPOUT TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE INTO EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL
NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO DEVELOPMENT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
INTO EARLY THURSDAY...IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

PWB

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
452 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2009

ARZ008-262215-
RANDOLPH AR-
452 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2009

...THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR...

  CENTRAL RANDOLPH COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND 40 TO 50
MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF RAVENDEN SPRINGS AT 452 PM
CDT...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN RANDOLPH COUNTY...INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR POCAHONTAS...
SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS
IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM CDT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
453 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2009

ARZ017-262230-
LAWRENCE AR-
453 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2009

...THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR...

  NORTHWESTERN LAWRENCE COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND 40 TO 50
MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ANNIEVILLE AT 453 PM
CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN LAWRENCE COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY THIS
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM CDT.