Flash Flood Warning 76, NWS Memphis, TN

000 
WGUS74 KMEG 120542
FFSMEG

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1242 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2009

TNC045-120552-
/O.CAN.KMEG.FF.W.0076.000000T0000Z-090612T0630Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
DYER TN-
1242 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2009

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR DYER COUNTY...THE 
HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS ENDED ACROSS THE 
WARNED AREA. THUS THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 3611 8916 3589 8928 3593 8940 3595 8941
      3595 8948 3594 8949 3593 8966 3595 8968
      3607 8966 3614 8959

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
734 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2009

.UPDATE...
00Z SURFACE MAP SHOWED A WEAK COLD FRONT JUST NORTH OF WALNUT
RIDGE AR...EXTENDING NORTHEAST TO THE OHIO RIVER. A LINEAR CLUSTER
OF STORMS WAS LOCATED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT... EAST AND
SOUTH OF A SURFACE LOW NEAR PADUCAH KY. GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWED A SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN IL/SOUTHWEST IN...LIKELY AIDING
IN THE ORGANIZATION OF THE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ENTER NORTHWEST TN THIS EVENING...BUT
SHOULD WEAKEN ONCE THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS OFF TO THE EAST AND THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO STABILIZE. HAVE HELD ON TO 40 POPS
FOR THESE AREAS.

THE REMAINDER OF THE MIDSOUTH HAS STABILIZED AND EXPECT WINDS TO
WEAKEN TO AROUND 5 KTS MOST AREAS. UNLIKE YESTERDAY... LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF ORGANIZED UPSTREAM DEEP CONVECTION...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF A SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING CLUSTER OVER CENTRAL TX. HAVE
LOWERED FIRST PERIOD POPS TO 20 PERCENT MOST AREAS. 18Z NAM QPF
APPEARS TO CONCUR. HELD ONTO NONZERO POPS TO ACCOMMODATE ANY
UNFORESEEN ELEVATED STORMS LATE TONIGHT. NAM12 SUGGEST SOME
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE 305K SURFACE...PERHAPS ENOUGH TO NUDGE
OTHERWISE STABLE PARCELS INTO ASCENT.

FORECAST UPDATE SENT.

PWB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 603 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2009/
UPDATED FOR AVIATION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2009/

SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS CAN BE FOUND AT THIS TIME.
COLD FRONT REMAINS TO OUR NORTH. THIS FRONT WILL ONLY SLOWLY SINK
SOUTH WITH SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS PASSING THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. BY FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA AND STALL OUT REMAINING OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEKEND. THE RESULT IS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOUND
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM TIME TO TIME FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. IT WILL NOT BE RAINING THE ENTIRE WEEKEND
BUT THERE WILL A THREAT FOR RAIN FROM TIME TO TIME. BY MONDAY...
THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT KEEPING A SMALL
CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
BY TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BRINGING AN
END TO THE RAIN AND A START TO HOTTER WEATHER. RIDGE WILL
STRENGTHEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHICH WILL MEAN CONTINUED DRY
WEATHER WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF SET

BKN LINE OF SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
THAT ROUGHLY RUNS ALONG MO/AR BORDER. KJBR MAY BE AFFECTED BY
STORM MOVING OUT OF LAWRENCE COUNTY OVER NEXT HOUR OR TWO. KMKL
MAY BE AFFECTED LATER THIS EVENING FROM ACTIVITY LOCATED ACROSS
SOUTHERN MO AND WESTERN KENTUCKY. HAVE INTRODUCED A VCTS WITH A
TEMPO AT KJBR THRU 02Z. AT KMKL...HAVE THROWN IN A VCTS BTWN
03-08Z. ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT AFFECT KMEM OR KTUP. OTHERWISE EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS OVER NEXT 24 HOURS. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED
TSRA DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY BUT NOT ENOUGH TO PUT IN TAFS.
STRONG SW WINDS WILL DECREASE OVER NEXT HOUR TO BELOW 6 KTS. SPDS
SHOULD WILL BE LIGHTER TOMORROW WITH TOP SPDS EXPECTED AROUND 8 KTS.

KRM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  72  88  74  91 /  20  40  50  30
MKL  68  86  68  89 /  30  40  40  30
JBR  67  85  70  89 /  20  40  40  30
TUP  70  89  72  91 /  20  40  50  30

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
707 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2009

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-121100-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
707 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAY WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWEST
TENNESSEE THIS EVENING...PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

PWB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
827 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2009

TNZ001-002-120215-
LAKE TN-OBION TN-
827 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2009

...THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR...

  NORTHEASTERN LAKE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  OBION COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND 40 TO 50
MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF TIPTONVILLE AT 827 PM
CDT...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

THIS STORM IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE AND NO WARNINGS ARE
ANTICIPATED.

PEOPLE IN LAKE AND OBION COUNTIES...INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR REELFOOT
LAKE STATE PARK AND UNION CITY...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.
THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT ALSO INCLUDES REELFOOT LAKE.