Flash Flood Warning 204, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
227 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2009

.DISCUSSION...

THE MIDSOUTH WILL REMAIN IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. SHORTWAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
CWA...PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA BY THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIE OUT OR
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AS THIS OCCURS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES
WILL ALSO HELP SET OFF SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED...NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS WHAT HAS
OCCURRED TODAY OR WHAT OCCURRED ON FRIDAY. LOWS WILL REMAIN WARM AND
MUGGY WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AN UPPER LOW WILL DIVE INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND STRENGTHEN. A SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTH
TEXAS AND PUSH EAST ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT. MODELS HAVE COME
TOGETHER ON SOLUTION THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. FRONT WILL BEGIN
MOVING INTO WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA ON TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL
STALL OUT OVER THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING BACK TO THE
CWA. THE GROUND IS SO SATURATED FROM RAINFALL OVER THE LAST
WEEK...WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S WITH LOWS REMAINING IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON
SOLUTION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE 12Z GFS SAGS
THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AS THE UPPER LOW RETROGRADES TO THE WEST.
THIS WOULD ALLOW AN UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. NE SFC WINDS
WOULD ALSO PUMP DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION THUS GIVING THE MIDSOUTH A
BREAK FROM PRECIPITATION. THE GFS BEGINS TO PUSH THE UPPER LOW INTO
THE MIDWEST BY NEXT WEEKEND THAT WOULD BRING ANOTHER FRONT INTO THE
CWA...BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE
FORECAST. HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWS THE FRONT REMAINING STALLED
OUT OVER THE AREA AS THE UPPER LOW RETROGRADES BACK TO THE WEST. THE
ECMWF KICKS THE UPPER LOW EAST QUICKER THAN THE GFS WHICH PUSH THE
FRONT THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. BY SUNDAY...THE AREA
COULD BE COOLER AND DRIER BEHIND THE FRONT. THE ECMWF SEEMS MORE
PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE WET PATTERN THE MIDSOUTH HAS BEEN IN. WILL LEAN
TOWARD IT UNLESS THE NEW RUN IS TOTALLY DIFFERENT.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS COVER THE MID SOUTH ATTM WITH ISOLD IFR CIGS
AND VSBYS IN SHRAS AND TSRAS MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IS SLOWLY SHUNTING TO THE EAST WHICH SHOULD
LEAVE KJBR DRY FOR THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT SHRAS AND TSRAS TO
CONTINUE EAST OF THE RIVER THIS AFTERNOON AND TAPER OFF THIS
EVENING. MVFR CIGS WILL SLOWLY LIFT TO VFR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AT ALL TAF SITES THOUGH ISOLD IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL CONTINUE IN
ANY SHRAS AND TSRAS.

AS PRECIP WINDS DOWN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING EXPECT A
PERIOD OF VFR CONDS. EVEN THOUGH THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
MOVING EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THERE WILL
STILL BE A LOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND SO EXPECT IFR CIGS TO
REDEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AFT 21/06Z. PATCHY MVFR VSBYS IN FOG ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. LIFR CONDS COULD OCCUR...ESPECIALLY AT KJBR WHERE SOME
CLEARING COULD OCCUR WHICH WOULD HELP TO PROMOTE LOW CIGS AND
VSBYS BY MORNING. CONDS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AFT 21/15Z AT ALL
SITES.

SJM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  72  85  73  84 /  30  30  30  60
MKL  70  82  69  84 /  40  30  30  50
JBR  69  83  70  82 /  20  20  40  70
TUP  71  84  70  86 /  50  40  30  50

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON
     MS-CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE
     MS-MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CARROLL-
     CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-
     HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-
     MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1120 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1117 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 N GERMANTOWN          35.10N 89.79W
09/20/2009                   SHELBY             TN   NWS EMPLOYEE

            WATER RUNOFF WELL OVER SIX INCHES IN THE LOW WATER
            CROSSING AREAS AT THE AGRICENTER INTERNATIONAL LOCATED IN
            THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF WALNUT GROVE ROAD AND
            GERMANTOWN PARKWAY INTERSECTION

&&

DSV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1213 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1117 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 N GERMANTOWN          35.10N 89.79W
09/20/2009                   SHELBY             TN   NWS EMPLOYEE

            WATER RUNOFF WELL OVER SIX INCHES IN THE LOW WATER
            CROSSING AREAS AT THE AGRICENTER INTERNATIONAL LOCATED IN
            THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF WALNUT GROVE ROAD AND
            GERMANTOWN PARKWAY INTERSECTION

1138 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 N GERMANTOWN          35.10N 89.79W
09/20/2009                   SHELBY             TN   NWS EMPLOYEE

            CAR STRANDED IN LOW WATER CROSSING AREA AT AGRICENTER
            INTERNATIONAL. WATER AT LEAST 18 INCHES DEEP IN THE
            TROUGH OF THE RUNOFF.

&&

DSV