Flash Flood Warning 190, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
411 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2009

.DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER NIGHT...ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN MOVING THROUGH
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. LOOKS LIKE A CLOUDY AND WET PATTERN WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TODAY...LATER SHIFT MAY NEED TO
EXTEND INTO SATURDAY.

EARLY THIS MORNING...HEAVY RAIN WAS AFFECTING NORTHWEST MS AS A
SMALL COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS PUSHED NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THIS
AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH ARE BETWEEN
1 1/4 AND 2 INCHES. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS AFFECTED THE
MIDSOUTH WAS THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN LA
THIS MORNING. THE LOW WAS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AND BECOME
AN OPEN WAVE.

FOR TODAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN LA WILL PUSH
EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL MS AS IT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH A VERY MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. WITH THE GROUND SATURATED IN MOST LOCATIONS FROM RECENT
HEAVY RAIN...FLASH FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE.

THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE
MIDSOUTH SATURDAY. THE REMNANTS OF THE LOW AND ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER AZ/NM THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY BECOME ABSORBED BY A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND.
AS A RESULT...VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
INTO THE MIDSOUTH WITH A CONTINUATION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH INTO SATURDAY.

ON SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OPENS UP AND
PUSHES NORTHEASTWARD AS A SHORT WAVE LEAVING THE MIDSOUTH IN BROAD
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THAT PERSIST INTO MONDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
BECOME MORE UNSTABLE WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE SUN. COULD BE A
FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS BY SUNDAY OR MONDAY...BUT DEPENDS ON HOW
MUCH SUN WE RECEIVE.

BY TUESDAY...A CLOSED AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGS FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS PLACE THE MIDSOUTH
IN INCREASINGLY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MEANWHILE...A
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH TOWARD THE AREA. PREFER THE SLOWER
GFS OVER THE ECMWF WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND EVEN THE
GFS MAY BE PUSHING THE FRONT TOO FAR EASTWARD TOO FAST. THINK THE
FRONT WILL STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...JUST NOT SURE
WHERE ATTM. POPS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED IN LATER FORECASTS
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONT STALLS...AND HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO
OCCUR AGAIN. A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. NOT SURE THE MODELS PRESENTLY HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT AND POTENTIAL FOR MORE HEAVY RAIN.

JCL

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAFS

CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED ACROSS NORTHERN LOUISIANA CONTINUES
TO BRING BANDS OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH AN OCCASIONAL
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TO NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE AS OF 05Z. WILL KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF
TAFS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS OVERALL COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW BUT WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY VCSH FOR MUCH OF THE TAF AND
INCLUDED VCTS FOR AFTER 18Z FRIDAY FOR MEM AND TUP. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR BETWEEN 06-08Z THEN DOWN TO IFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 10Z WITH LIGHT DRIZZLE. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE AFTER 14Z. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.

CJC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  81  70  81  71 /  80  50  70  50
MKL  79  68  80  69 /  80  50  70  50
JBR  79  67  78  68 /  60  40  70  50
TUP  82  70  82  71 /  80  60  70  50

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
     MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR CARROLL-CHESTER-
     CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-
     HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-
     OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

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