Flash Flood Warning 15, NWS Memphis, TN

000 
WGUS74 KMEG 302349
FFSMEG

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
648 PM CDT THU APR 30 2009

ARC021-075-121-302358-
/O.CAN.KMEG.FF.W.0015.000000T0000Z-090501T0130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CLAY AR-RANDOLPH AR-LAWRENCE AR-
648 PM CDT THU APR 30 2009

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR EASTERN LAWRENCE...
EASTERN RANDOLPH AND CLAY COUNTIES...
THE HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS
THE WARNED AREA. THUS THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

.STAY TUNED TO THIS BROADCAST FOR THE LATEST UPDATES AND INFORMATION.
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER ONLY...CALL 1 800 4 3 2 0 8 7 5.

LAT...LON 3586 9090 3618 9047 3617 9016 3548 9007
      3545 9104

$$

ARC031-055-093-111-MOC069-010130-
/O.CON.KMEG.FF.W.0015.000000T0000Z-090501T0130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CRAIGHEAD AR-MISSISSIPPI AR-POINSETT AR-GREENE AR-DUNKLIN MO-
648 PM CDT THU APR 30 2009

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN DUNKLIN...SOUTHEASTERN GREENE...POINSETT...WESTERN
MISSISSIPPI AND CRAIGHEAD COUNTIES...

AT 648 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER THE WARNED AREA. OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS
DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES THAT 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAS FALLEN
ACROSS THE WARNED AREA.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO LAKE FRIERSON
STATE PARK...CROWLEYS RIDGE STATE PARK...SENATH...CARDWELL... 
ARBYRD...WALCOTT...JONESBORO...PARAGOULD AND OAK GROVE HEIGHTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

.EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...COUNTRY ROADS...AS WELL AS FARMLAND ALONG THE
BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.

.STAY TUNED TO THIS BROADCAST FOR THE LATEST UPDATES AND INFORMATION.
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER ONLY...CALL 1 800 4 3 2 0 8 7 5.

&&

LAT...LON 3586 9090 3618 9047 3617 9016 3548 9007
      3545 9104

$$


TLSJR

000 
WGUS74 KMEG 010052
FFSMEG

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
752 PM CDT THU APR 30 2009

ARC031-055-093-111-MOC069-010102-
/O.CAN.KMEG.FF.W.0015.000000T0000Z-090501T0130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CRAIGHEAD AR-MISSISSIPPI AR-POINSETT AR-GREENE AR-DUNKLIN MO-
752 PM CDT THU APR 30 2009

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR SOUTHWESTERN
DUNKLIN...SOUTHEASTERN GREENE...POINSETT...WESTERN MISSISSIPPI AND
CRAIGHEAD COUNTIES...
THE HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS
THE WARNED AREA. THUS THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 3586 9090 3618 9047 3617 9016 3548 9007
      3545 9104

$$


TLSJR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
305 PM CDT THU APR 30 2009

.DISCUSSION...

A POTENT SHORTWAVE IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM OVER
ARKANSAS WILL PASS THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HOWEVER EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED SOLAR
INSOLATION...THUS LOWERING MAXIMUM CAPE POTENTIAL. EVEN THOUGH
AREA IS IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS BELIEVE THUNDERSTORM
STRENGTH WILL BE IN THE STRONG CATEGORY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS WEST OF THE
RIVER. MODELS ALL SHOW THE SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE CWA BY
06Z...THUS ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN AFTER THE WAVE MOVES
THROUGH. SOME LIGHT FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT DUE TO PRECIPITATION.

STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH LATE TOMORROW. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A
SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AFTER SOME PARTIAL CLEARING BY LATE MORNING
AND DURING THE AFTERNOON...BELIEVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SEVERE
WEATHER WILL AFFECT THE AREA MAINLY FROM LATE AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT...WHEN MORE FORCING WILL BE TAKING PLACE JUST SOUTH AND
ALONG THE FRONT.

THE FRONT WILL STALL NEARLY ALONG INTERSTATE FORTY ON SATURDAY...AND
WITH PARALLEL UPPER LEVEL FLOW COULD LEAD TO THE AREA RECEIVING
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED STRONG STORMS. LACK
OF HEATING ON SATURDAY WILL KEEP STORM INTENSITY IN THE STRONG
CATEGORY.

LATER IN THE WEEKEND THE QUESTION STILL REMAINS ON THE STRENGTH
OF A SURFACE LOW ACROSS TEXAS. GFS AND NAM BRING IN A CLOSED
UPPER LOW OFF THE PACIFIC WITH ENOUGH COLD AIR AND LIFT TO DEVELOP
A 1004 MB SURFACE LOW OVER ARKANSAS. THIS FEATURE WILL SHUNT THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT AND MOST OF THE CWA
WILL BE A VERY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR WITH PLENTY OF SHEAR AND NO CAP.
A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS POSSIBLE FROM MID
AFTERNOON TO LATE EVENING.

AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST A COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY COOLING TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY AND
SLOWLY TAPERING OFF PRECIPITATION. A SHORT LIVED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY PROVIDING A MORE STABLE AND
DRY PATTERN THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE THE SOUTHERN BRANCH BECOMES
MORE ACTIVE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  67  83  67  83 /  70  40  50  50
MKL  63  82  63  80 /  70  50  60  50
JBR  61  79  63  76 /  70  60  70  60
TUP  65  83  66  85 /  40  30  40  30

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
219 PM CDT THU APR 30 2009

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-012130-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
219 PM CDT THU APR 30 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
A SLIGHT RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS. FURTHER EAST A THREAT OF STRONG
STORMS WILL EXIST CAPABLE OF SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO
50 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AREA WIDE ON
FRIDAY MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A BETTER CHANCE OF
MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED ON SUNDAY...AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES. THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL SLIGHTLY CHANGE FOR THE PERIOD
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE ACTIVATION OF STORMS SPOTTERS...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...AND LAW
ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS MAY BE REQUIRED AT TIMES OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
314 PM CDT THU APR 30 2009

ARZ008-017-302045-
RANDOLPH AR-LAWRENCE AR-
314 PM CDT THU APR 30 2009

...THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR...

  LAWRENCE COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
  SOUTH CENTRAL RANDOLPH COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND 40 TO 50
MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF LYNN AT 315 PM CDT...
MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

THIS STORM IS INTENSIFYING AND COULD BECOME SEVERE RAPIDLY.

PEOPLE IN LAWRENCE AND RANDOLPH COUNTIES...INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR
BLACK ROCK...HOXIE...LAKE CHARLES STATE PARK...POCAHONTAS AND WALNUT
RIDGE...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
419 PM CDT THU APR 30 2009

ARZ009-018-MOZ113-302200-
CLAY AR-GREENE AR-DUNKLIN MO-
419 PM CDT THU APR 30 2009

...THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR...

  CLAY COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
  GREENE COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
  NORTH CENTRAL DUNKLIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS
LOCATED FROM 2 MILES NORTH OF KNOBEL TO BEECH GROVE AT 419 PM CDT...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

THESE STORMS ARE INTENSIFYING AND COULD BECOME SEVERE RAPIDLY.

PEOPLE IN CLAY...DUNKLIN AND GREENE COUNTIES...INCLUDING LOCATIONS
NEAR CAMPBELL...CHALK BLUFF NATURAL AREA...CORNING...CROWLEYS RIDGE
STATE PARK...MARMADUKE...PIGGOTT AND RECTOR...SHOULD MONITOR THIS
STORM CLOSELY THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500
PM CDT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
445 PM CDT THU APR 30 2009

ARZ026-027-302230-
CRAIGHEAD AR-POINSETT AR-
445 PM CDT THU APR 30 2009

...THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR...

  SOUTHWESTERN CRAIGHEAD COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
  WESTERN POINSETT COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND 50 TO 55
MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF WALDENBURG AT 444 PM
CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

RADAR SHOWED WEAK ROTATION WITH THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO WESTERN
POINSETT AND SOUTHWESTERN CRAIGHEAD COUNTIES.

PEOPLE IN CRAIGHEAD AND POINSETT COUNTIES...INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR
HARRISBURG AND JONESBORO...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY THIS
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM CDT.