Flash Flood Warning 127, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
504 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2009

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO RAISE POPS FOR THIS EVENING...AND TO START FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IMMEDIATELY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...ARE ALREADY MOVING INTO THE AREA.

JCL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2009/

CURRENTLY...A STATIONARY FRONT IS LOCATED FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS/OKLAHOMA.
SOUTH OF THIS FRONT THE AIRMASS IS VERY MOIST WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER AND MID 70S AND PWS OVER 2 INCHES. NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED SOUTH OF THIS FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE INTO THE MID SOUTH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...THE FRONT WILL REMAIN
STATIONARY OR DRIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. EXPECT THE LOW LEVEL JET TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE ARKLATEX AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO FUEL NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION. ON THURSDAY WEAK LOW PRESSURE SHOULD TRACK ACROSS THE
AREA AS THE FRONT STARTS TO SAG SOUTHWARD. AS A RESULT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WIDESPREAD. SINCE PWS WILL BE ABOVE 2 INCHES
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PLENTY
OF HEAVY RAIN. SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE UP TO THREE INCHES DURING
THIS PERIOD AND WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. THE SEVERE THREAT LOOKS
MARGINAL SINCE THE WIDESPREAD PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP
THE INSTABILITY IN CHECK...THOUGH SOME STRONG STORMS ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. THE FRONT WILL TRY TO WORK
THROUGH THE MID SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL PROBABLY STALL
ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI BY EARLY FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD
TONIGHT AND COOLER THAN NORMAL ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 80S.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...FRONT SHOULD BE STALLED ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA WITH BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI. AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-40 SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ON FRIDAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AN STRONGER MID LEVEL TROF WILL BEGIN
WORKING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS HELPING TO LIFT THE FRONT OVER
NORTH MISSISSIPPI NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. AS A RESULT INCREASED
POPS FOR SATURDAY ACROSS THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY
NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE EAST OF THE MID
SOUTH LEAVING THE AREA UNDER A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF AND WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. THINK THIS PERIOD WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET
WITH PERHAPS MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING POP UP CONVECTION. WILL
CONTINUE 20 POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE
CLOSER TO NORMAL...PERHAPS TOUCHING 90.

WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH SO WILL BUMP POPS UP
TO THE CHANCE CATEGORY.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z AT
KMEM...KMKL...AND KJBR. SHRA/TSRA WILL MOVE INTO KTUP AFTER 20Z
WITH BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED.THROUGH 01Z. WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY IF SHRA/TSRA
APPROACH KMEM AND KJBR.

AFTER 06Z...APPEARS SHRA/TSRA WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS OVER THE
AREA AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE. KEPT VFR CONDITIONS FOR
KMEM AND KMKL FOR NOW ALTHOUGH MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. MVFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT KTUP DUE TO CEILINGS AND KJBR DUE TO
SHRA/TSRA.

KNS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  74  84  71  85 /  70  90  70  20
MKL  71  82  70  84 /  70  90  70  20
JBR  71  80  68  86 /  70  90  50  10
TUP  72  87  73  84 /  70  70  80  50

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR DUNKLIN-
     PEMISCOT.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ALCORN-BENTON
     MS-CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE
     MS-MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR CARROLL-
     CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-
     HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-
     MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
320 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2009

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-301200-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
320 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE MID SOUTH OVERNIGHT.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND
POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING.

A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE THE
MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE MID SOUTH THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY EVENING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING. A FEW STRONG STORMS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CONTINUE TO CREATE AN
ELEVATED RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT ORGANIZED WIDESPREAD SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

SJM