Flash Flood Warning 117, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1219 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2009

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 835 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2009/

SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.
NOT TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. ONE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPED OVER CARROLL COUNTY
TENNESSEE AND GOT TO BE PRETTY STRONG BEFORE IT MOVED INTO MIDDLE
TENNESSEE BUT THERE HAS NOT TOO MUCH ELSE IN OUR AREA. WILL NEED
TO SEND AN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO REMOVE SOME EVENING WORDING
BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

ARS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2009/

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PERSIST TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW. AS A RESULT...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSOURI WILL PUSH INTO THE MID SOUTH THIS EVENING. CLOUD COVER
FROM EARLIER CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS PUTTING A DAMPER ON
TEMPERATURES. THEREFORE INITIATION OF NEW CONVECTION WILL MOST
LIKELY LAG IN TIME...STARTING AFTER 23Z. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY THIS EVENING WHEN CAPE VALUES WILL BE
AT THEIR HIGHEST.

PERIODS OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT AND DAY TOMORROW WITH SEVERE FOCUS SHIFTING MORE INTO NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI...WHERE THE BEST SOLAR INSOLATION WILL BE OBSERVED.
MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT WILL BECOME ILL DEFINED SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF STATES. THUS PRECIPITATION
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE MID SOUTH...WITH
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR REMAINING OVER THE NORTH.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL GENERATE...SWING...A NEW COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE MIDWEST. SOUTHERN BOUNDARY WILL TAKE ON MORE OF A WARM
FRONT CHARACTERISTIC. THIS COUPLED WITH ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE WILL
PUT THE MID SOUTH IN A MORE FOCUSED...SANDWICHED LOCATION UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW. THUS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION...TO INCLUDE ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER...HEAVY
RAIN...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE ANTICIPATED.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...
LOWER CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
KJBR AROUND 14Z...THEN STALL NEAR KMEM AND KMKL. CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING SHRA / TSRA IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ALLOW MENTIONING ANYMORE
THAN VCSH / VCTS IN THE TAFS FOR NOW. SW 5-10 KTS WINDS WILL TURN TO
THE WNW-NW WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.

JCL/KRM

&&

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  70  89  71  83 /  20  20  30  50
MKL  68  88  69  84 /  20  20  30  40
JBR  68  88  69  84 /  20  20  30  40
TUP  69  89  70  86 /  50  30  30  40

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
249 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2009

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-262200-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
249 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOT HEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF A LINE
FROM HARRISBURG ARKANSAS TO LEXINGTON TENNESSEE. DAMAGING WINDS
LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE MID
SOUTH THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE COMBINATION OF A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND INCREASED
INSTABILITY MAY LEAD TO SOME STRONG STORMS. TIMING OF STRONGER
STORMS NEXT WEEK WILL BE REFINED IN LATER FORECASTS. THERE WILL
ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY OVER NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS... THE MISSOURI BOOT HEEL AND NORTHWEST TENNESSEE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1216 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2009

ARZ009-018-MOZ113-260600-
CLAY AR-GREENE AR-DUNKLIN MO-
1216 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2009

...THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR...

  CLAY COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
  NORTHERN GREENE COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
  CENTRAL DUNKLIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND 40
TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED FROM 5 MILES WEST OF MCDOUGAL TO 4 MILES
NORTH OF DELAPLAINE AT 1216 AM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

THESE STORMS ARE INTENSIFYING AND COULD BECOME SEVERE RAPIDLY.

PEOPLE IN CLAY...DUNKLIN AND GREENE COUNTIES...INCLUDING LOCATIONS
NEAR CAMPBELL...CHALK BLUFF NATURAL AREA...CORNING...MARMADUKE...
PIGGOTT AND RECTOR...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
101 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2009

ARZ009-MOZ113-115-260645-
CLAY AR-DUNKLIN MO-PEMISCOT MO-
101 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2009

...THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR...

  EASTERN CLAY COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
  CENTRAL DUNKLIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...
  WESTERN PEMISCOT COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND 40 TO 50
MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 4 MILES EAST OF PIGGOTT AT 101 AM CDT...MOVING
EAST AT 25 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

THIS STORM IS INTENSIFYING AND COULD BECOME SEVERE RAPIDLY.

PEOPLE IN CLAY...DUNKLIN AND PEMISCOT COUNTIES...INCLUDING LOCATIONS
NEAR CAMPBELL...HAYTI...KENNETT AND PIGGOTT...SHOULD MONITOR THIS
STORM CLOSELY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
141 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2009

ARZ018-026-028-260730-
CRAIGHEAD AR-MISSISSIPPI AR-GREENE AR-
141 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2009

...THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR...

  NORTHEASTERN CRAIGHEAD COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
  SOUTH CENTRAL GREENE COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
  NORTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND 40 TO 50
MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED OVER BROOKLAND AT 141 AM CDT...MOVING EAST AT
15 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

THIS STORM IS INTENSIFYING AND COULD BECOME SEVERE RAPIDLY.

PEOPLE IN CRAIGHEAD...GREENE AND MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES...INCLUDING
LOCATIONS NEAR BROOKLAND...LAKE CITY...LEACHVILLE AND MONETTE...
SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
224 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 AM     FLASH FLOOD      CARUTHERSVILLE          36.18N 89.67W
07/26/2009                   PEMISCOT           MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MINOR ROAD FLOODING

&&

RJO