Flash Flood Warning 106, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
403 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2009

.DISCUSSION...
THE SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT AS WELL AS HIGH HEAT
INDEX VALUES ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS MORNING.

CURRENTLY...SEVERAL COMPLEXES OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
MAKE THEIR WAY EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS...THE
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...AND WEST TENNESSEE EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE
STORMS HAVE PRODUCED VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING SO FAR. HAVE NOT RECEIVED ANY SEVERE WIND
REPORTS...HOWEVER THINK THIS IS PROBABLY DUE TO THE FACT THAT ITS
OCCURRING IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT. THESE COMPLEXES OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...AND WEST TENNESSEE THIS MORNING
WHICH CORRESPONDS WELL WITH THE HIGHEST POPS TODAY. STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY WITH THE MAIN THREATS
BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND FLASH FLOODING.

NOT VERY CONFIDENT ON WHAT EFFECT THESE COMPLEXES WILL HAVE ON
TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. IF
THESE AREAS REMAIN RAINFREE THIS MORNING...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
EASILY REACH ABOVE 105 DEGREES AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. DECIDED TO GO
AHEAD AND PLAY IT SAFE AND ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR AREAS SOUTH
OF A LINE FROM MARIANNA ARKANSAS TO PONTOTOC MISSISSIPPI. THIS
ADVISORY CAN EASILY BE CANCELLED LATER TODAY IF IT LOOKS LIKE
CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER PUTS A LID ON TEMPERATURES.

ANOTHER COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE REGION. ONCE AGAIN STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
BRINGING DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE MIDSOUTH ON FRIDAY. HEAT ADVISORIES WILL NOT BE NEEDED ON
FRIDAY AS RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH AMPLE
CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION AROUND.

COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE REGION. MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE A VERY PLEASANT WEEKEND FOR THE MIDDLE OF JULY AS
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR HIGHS AND IN THE
50S FOR LOWS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
ON MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MODERATE BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL.
THE GFS AND ECMWF SOMEWHAT DISAGREE DURING THE TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY TIME FRAME AS THE ECMWF BRINGS RAIN BACK INTO THE
FORECAST. FOR NOW...KEPT THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST DRY
WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY MID WEEK.

KNS

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

NOT SURE WHEN NEXT DEVELOPMENT OF TSRA/SHRA OVER THE AREA. FOR
NOW...PLAN ON VCTS RETURNING TO KJBR BY 09Z...KMEM AND KMKL 15-16Z
AND KTUP BY 18Z. ONCE TSRA/SHRA DEVELOPS...WILL AMEND AS BRIEF
GUSTY WINDS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ANY
TSRA/SHRA.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR THE MOST PART WITH BRIEF
GUSTY WINDS NEAR TSRA.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  92  75  88  65 /  70  50  70  10
MKL  89  70  87  58 /  70  40  60  10
JBR  89  71  87  62 /  70  50  50  10
TUP  93  72  88  64 /  70  40  80  20

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LEE AR-PHILLIPS.

MO...NONE.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-
     COAHOMA-LAFAYETTE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-
     TUNICA-YALOBUSHA.

TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
414 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2009

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-171115-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
414 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY FOR THE
ENTIRE MIDSOUTH. DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60 MPH ARE THE MAIN HAZARD.
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF
NICKELS...AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES CAUSING
FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL.

HEAT INDEX READINGS WILL CLIMB TO BETWEEN 105 AND 108 DEGREES
ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MARIANNA ARKANSAS TO
PONTOTOC MISSISSIPPI. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS
IN EASTERN ARKANSAS AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI THROUGH 700 PM CDT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AS
SEVERAL COMPLEXES OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. THE
MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED TODAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
MIDSOUTH. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY ALSO BE NEEDED AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

KNS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
111 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2009

ARZ028-TNZ048-160700-
MISSISSIPPI AR-LAUDERDALE TN-
111 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2009

...THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR...

  EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
  LAUDERDALE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND 40 TO 50
MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED OVER ASHPORT AT 112 AM CDT...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 15 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

THIS STORM IS INTENSIFYING AND COULD BECOME SEVERE RAPIDLY.

PEOPLE IN LAUDERDALE AND MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES...INCLUDING LOCATIONS
NEAR RIPLEY...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY THIS SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT. THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
ALERT ALSO INCLUDES CHISHOLM LAKE...OPEN LAKE AND SUNK LAKE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
245 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2009

ARZ028-036-TNZ048-049-088-089-160830-
MISSISSIPPI AR-CRITTENDEN AR-LAUDERDALE TN-FAYETTE TN-SHELBY TN-
TIPTON TN-
245 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2009

...THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR...

  NORTHEASTERN CRITTENDEN COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
  SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
  WESTERN FAYETTE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LAUDERDALE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  NORTHERN SHELBY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  SOUTHWESTERN TIPTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS
LOCATED FROM 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF MARIE TO 11 MILES NORTHEAST OF
ARLINGTON AT 245 AM CDT...MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE AND NO WARNINGS ARE
ANTICIPATED.

PEOPLE IN CRITTENDEN...FAYETTE...LAUDERDALE...MISSISSIPPI...SHELBY
AND TIPTON COUNTIES...INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR BARTLETT...CORDOVA...
KEISER...MEEHAM SHELBY FOREST STATE PARK...MIDTOWN MEMPHIS...
MILLINGTON...OSCEOLA AND WILSON...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY
THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 AM CDT. THIS
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT ALSO INCLUDES BRANDYWINE LAKE AND CORONEE
LAKE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
344 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2009

ARZ009-018-028-MOZ113-160915-
MISSISSIPPI AR-CLAY AR-GREENE AR-DUNKLIN MO-
344 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2009

...THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR...

  SOUTHEASTERN CLAY COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
  NORTHEASTERN GREENE COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
  NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
  SOUTHERN DUNKLIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND 40 TO 50
MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED OVER MARMADUKE AT 344 AM CDT...MOVING EAST AT
20 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

THIS STORM IS INTENSIFYING AND COULD BECOME SEVERE RAPIDLY.

PEOPLE IN CLAY...DUNKLIN...GREENE AND MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES...
INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR KENNETT...MARMADUKE...RECTOR AND SENATH...
SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS
IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 AM CDT.

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