Tornado Warning 16, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
245 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2009

.DISCUSSION...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A COUPLET OF UPPER SHORTWAVES OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES W/IN THE MAIN TROUGH...W/ONE EJECTING NE INTO
ND...AND A DEEPER ONE DIGGING SE OVER THE GREAT SALT LAKE.  CLOSER
TO HOME...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE DRYLINE HAS SHARPENED UP...AND
MIXED OUT TO NEAR A KGGS-KBPG-K6R6 LINE.  THE GFS INITIALIZED BEST
REGARDING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS...AND GUIDANCE DEWPOINTS WILL BE
LEANED TOWARD IN THE SHORT TERM.  EAST OF THE DRYLINE...KMAF 12Z
RAOB HAS COME IN SIGNIFICANTLY CAPPED...BUT LOOKS OMINOUS ONCE THE
CAPPED BREAKS...W/SBCAPES IN EXCESS OF 4500 J/KG...AND MID-LEVEL
LR/S APPROACHING 8 DEG C/KM.  OVERNIGHT LLJ YIELDED CONSIDERABLE
GULF MOISTURE RETURN...W/SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-60S F AND PWATS
APPROACHING 230 PCT OF NORMAL AT 1.20...SO FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL
LOOKS GOOD EAST OF THE DRYLINE FOR THIS EVENT.  AS MID-LEVEL JET
APPROACHES LATER THIS AFTERNOON...0-6KM SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE
SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE.
WET-BULB ZEROES LOOK OPTIMAL FOR A LARGE HAIL THREAT...AND DAMAGING
WINDS CAN/T BE RULED OUT EITHER.  LCLS LOOK A LITTLE HIGH FOR
TORNADOES ATTM.

DRYLINE WEAKENS SOMEWHAT MONDAY...BUT SURGES WESTWARD AND SHARPENS
MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT WORKS SOUTH TOWARDS THE AREA...FORMING
A TRIPLE POINT IN NE NM AND LEAVING ABOUT 2/3RD OF THE FA IN THE
WARM SECTOR.  MODELS STILL HINT AT OVERRIDING THE FRONT W/MINOR
SHORTWAVES TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.  COUPLED W/UPSLOPE SE RETURN
FLOW...BEST CHANCES OF CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THE WRN LOW ROLLING
PLAINS AND NE PB NEAREST THE FRONT.  MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON
TIMING/SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF THE FRONT...BUT ARE SIMILARLY UNSTABLE IN
THE WARM SECTOR TO WARRANT A MENTION OF SEVERE CONVECTION OVER THE
WRN LOW ROLLING HILLS AND PB TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...W/HEAVY
RAIN ERN PB...AS FORECAST PWATS WILL BE OVER 1.5 IN THERE.
OTHERWISE...WEAK RIDGING BEGINS BUILDING IN WEDNESDAY...LEAVING A
DRY FORECAST THRU SATURDAY.  SOMETIME OVER THE WEEKEND...MODELS HINT
AT PUSHING THE RIDGE EAST AND BRINGING IN ANOTHER TROUGH.  TIMING
DIFFERENCES ABOUND...W/THE GFS BRINGING THE TROUGH THRU SATURDAY
NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF LAGS CONSIDERABLY.  FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT
GRIDS DRY.

FOR TEMPS...MODEL THICKNESSES/FORECAST SOUNDINGS MATCH UP REASONABLY
W/GUIDANCE...WHICH HAS TRENDED A BIT COOLER OVER THE PAST 24 HRS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

AS UPPER TROUGH PASSES...700MB SPEED MAX WILL MOVE EAST AND SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL SLACKEN MONDAY.  HOWEVER...RH/S MONDAY
AFTERNOON WILL STILL BOTTOM OUT AOB 15 PERCENT.  MONDAY NIGHT...COLD
FRONT WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE REGION WILL RAISE RH/S ABOVE CRITICAL
CRITERIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX              64  89  66  79  /  30  10   0  30
CARLSBAD NM                52  87  56  82  /   0   0   0  10
DRYDEN TX                  67  89  69  83  /  30   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           59  90  63  91  /   0   0   0  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          52  80  57  81  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   51  86  54  79  /   0   0   0  30
MARFA TX                   43  83  47  84  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    63  89  61  81  /  10   0   0  30
ODESSA TX                  62  86  61  86  /  10   0   0  30
WINK TX                    55  92  64  87  /   0   0   0  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ...SOUTHEAST
     PLAINS/BLM ROSWELL/LNZ.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... ANDREWS...DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA...
     GAINES...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...LOVING...REEVES COUNTY AND
     UPPER TRANS PECOS...VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR...
     WARD...WINKLER.

&&

10/44

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1238 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2009

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-271745-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
1238 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2009 /1138 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2009/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
DRYLINE INTO THIS EVENING. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS TO BE AFFECTED
INCLUDE LOCATIONS GENERALLY EAST OF A LAMESA...TO MIDLAND...TO
SANDERSON LINE. STRONG WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...LARGE
HAIL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP. AFTER MIDNIGHT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA WITH CONCERNS THEN SHIFTING TOWARDS
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN AND EAST
CENTRAL PERMIAN BASIN.

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO PLAINS...THE WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN...THE UPPER TRANS
PECOS...THE VAN HORN CORRIDOR...AS WELL AS THE DAVIS AND GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BELOW 15 PERCENT
COMBINED WITH 20 FOOT WINDS SPEEDS IN EXCESS OF 20 MPH ARE
EXPECTED. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING.

STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS INCLUDING GUADALUPE PASS. TRAVELERS THROUGH
THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR POSSIBLE STRONG WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
PERMIAN BASIN...THE SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS...AND THE UPPER
TRANS PECOS ON TUESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS INTO THE REGION.
LARGE HAIL ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN...AS WELL AS THE LOWER TRANS
PECOS.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
220 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2009

TXZ075-261945-
PECOS-
220 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR EASTERN PECOS COUNTY.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 22 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BAKERSFIELD
AT 220 PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

PEOPLE IN EASTERN PECOS COUNTY...INCLUDING THE CITY OF BAKERSFIELD...
SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH
AND HAIL TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER
CONDITIONS.