Severe Thunderstorm Warning 88, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
227 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2009

.DISCUSSION...
THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER
FEATURE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. CURRENTLY IT IS HAS SHIFTED NORTH
INTO THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN. THE BEST CHANCE OF THE CAP
BREAKING LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING APPEARS TO BE SOUTH OF THE
FRONT IN THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND THE ADJACENT STOCKTON PLATEAU
WHERE THE BEST HEATING IS TAKING PLACE WITH A BOOST FROM THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. ANY STORM THAT CAN FORM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE. EXPECTING MAINLY ISOLATED AREAL
COVERAGE DUE TO RATHER FLAT UPPER LEVEL FLOW. ANOTHER SOUTHWARD
COOL SURGE IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A BETTER CHANCE OF THE CAP BREAKING SO WENT MAINLY
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORM COVERAGE MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. WITH CAPES OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG AND 0-6 KILOMETER SHEAR OF
20 TO 30 KNOTS A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE. AFTER MONDAY THE
DRY LINE WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. INTENSE
HEATING ALONG WITH SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW COULD SET
OFF MORE STORMS TUESDAY FROM THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS NORTHWARD INTO
LEA COUNTY NEW MEXICO AND EAST  INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN. THE
DRY LINE WILL PUSH INTO THE EXTREME EASTERN BASIN WEDNESDAY AS A
BETTER WESTERLY SURGE OCCURS...SO SHIFTED ISOLATED THUNDER POPS TO
THAT AREA.

THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS NOT AS BULLISH WITH THE NEXT NORTHERN
STREAM FRONT FOR THURSDAY BUT THERE IS CONSENSUS THAT A BROAD
TROUGH ALOFT WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATES WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES EJECTING THROUGH
SEVERAL DAYS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS
NORTHWARD TO LEA COUNTY AND EASTWARD ARGUE FOR AT LEAST A
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY IN THIS REGIME INTO
THE WEEKEND. A POTENT COLD FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO COME INTO THE
FORECAST AREA SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WOULD ONLY ENHANCE
THE CHANCE OF CONVECTION. WILL CONTINUE TO BROAD BRUSH
ISOLATED POPS NEXT WEEKEND GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OF THE TIMING
OF THE FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX              62  75  63  96  /  20  20  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                58  78  57 100  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  68  91  69  93  /  20  10  20  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           64  90  67  97  /  20  20  20  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          56  80  60  97  /  10   0  10  10
HOBBS NM                   56  75  60  99  /  10  20  10  20
MARFA TX                   54  86  54  91  /  20  20  20  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    61  78  65  95  /  10  30  10  10
ODESSA TX                  61  79  68  95  /  10  30  10  10
WINK TX                    62  90  69  98  /  10  20  10  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

99/99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
209 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2009

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-111915-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
209 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2009 /109 PM MDT SUN MAY 10 2009/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE BIG BEND REGION...THE MARFA PLATEAU...THE
DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND THE TRANS PECOS REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. AS STORMS MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER
LOWER TRANS PECOS HEAVY RAINFALL COULD ALSO LEAD TO LOCALIZED
FLOODING. ALSO A CHANCE OF STORMS WILL EXIST TONIGHT ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH ALONG A COLD FRONT...A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BE
STRONG.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW...HOWEVER
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY ACROSS THE TRANS
PECOS AND THE PERMIAN BASIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ALTHOUGH THE PROBABILITY FOR SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LOW...EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS AND SPOTTER GROUPS ACROSS SOUTHWEST TEXAS
SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
448 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2009

TXZ074-102245-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-
448 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR NORTH JEFF DAVIS COUNTY.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER NORTH JEFF DAVIS COUNTY AT
445 PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

STRONG GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...AND DEADLY
LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE AS THIS STORM MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
HIGHWAY 17 IN NORTHEAST JEFF DAVIS COUNTY BY 530 PM CDT.

SEEK SHELTER IF THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH YOUR LOCATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
519 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2009

TXZ074-075-102300-
PECOS-DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-
519 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR EAST CENTRAL JEFF DAVIS AND
WEST CENTRAL PECOS COUNTIES.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER EXTREME EAST CENTRAL JEFF
DAVIS COUNTY AT 519 PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AND NO WARNINGS ARE ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME.

HOWEVER...GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...HEAVY RAIN...AND DEADLY
LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE.