Severe Thunderstorm Warning 314, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
211 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2009

.DISCUSSION...
POST FRONTAL AIRMASS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN PREVIOUS 24HRS.
REMNANT BOUNDARY HAS MADE IT WELL INTO THE TRANS PECOS. THIS WITH
HIER DWPNTS INVOF BOUNDARY...HIER TERRAIN...AND IN CLOSER PROXIMITY
TO 5H THETA-E RIDGE AXIS FAVORS TSTMS ACRS TRANS PECOS THIS PM.
STILL ISOLD SHRA HAVE DEVELOPED IN SRN PB AND IN FAR E...AND HAVE
OPTED TO PULL ISOLD POPS FARTHER N AND E FOR EVENING. MEANWHILE NW
MID LEVEL FLOW HAS COME TO AN END AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS SEWD
THRU SAT BEING CENTERED INVOF NE NM. NAM SUGGEST ISOLD -SHRA LATE
SAT AFTERNOON IN THE NE WHERE 7H TEMPS ARE A LITTLE COOLER. EVEN
THOUGH NE MID LEVEL WINDS NOT TYPICALLY ASSOCD WITH POPS THERE
SEEMS TO BE ENUF OF A SIGNAL TO INCLUDE ISOLD POPS NE. MEANWHILE
SE 5H WINDS ACRS FAR WRN CWFA WILL PUSH THETA-E RIDGE AXIS FARTHER
NW SO ISOLD POPS AT BEST IN FAR SW-W. PRESENCE OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND INTO SUNDAY. LOOKS LIKE VERY DRY MID LEVEL
AIR AND LACK OF SFC BOUNDARY ARE ENUF TO PRECLUDE POPS. MORE OF
THE SAME MONDAY AS SB LI/S ARE POSITIVE UNDERNEATH RIDGE AND MID
LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS REMAIN WELL W OF CWFA. 85H TEMPS HOLD
STEADY N28C AT MAF TO N30C AT CNM SO WIDESPREAD U90S LOOK PRETTY
GOOD SAT-MON. SOME HINT OF RIDGE WEAKENING TUE AS MID/UPPER LOW
RETROGRADES. FOR THE MOST PART CWFA WILL REMAIN IN BTWN THE
THETA-E RIDGE ACRS NM AND POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING MSTR WITH
RETROGRADING MID/UPPER LOW TUE/WED SO OTHER THAN ISOLD POPS ACRS
MTNS LITTLE CHANGE. THEREAFTER THUR/FRI MODELS DO REFLECT COOLING
TREND BUT SEEM TO ARRIVE AT IT IN DIFFERING PATTERNS...ATTP WILL
REFLECT COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX              71  97  72  98  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                67  98  68  98  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  73  99  73  99  /  20  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           72  98  73  98  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          63  93  68  94  /  10  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                   67  97  68  98  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   59  90  58  91  /  20  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    70  98  72  98  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  72  97  73  97  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                    73 102  73 102  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
158 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2009

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-221130-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
158 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2009 /1258 PM MDT FRI AUG 21 2009/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING
ACROSS MUCH OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO EXCEPT THE
NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN. THE MOST PERSISTENT ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER
THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS...MARFA PLATEAU AND THE BIG BEND. ONE OR TWO
OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND THE
MAIN CONCERN. STORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
249 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2009

TXZ075-212015-
PECOS-
249 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR WEST CENTRAL PECOS COUNTY.

A COUPLE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED IN WEST CENTRAL PECOS
COUNTY AT 246 PM CDT. ONE STRONG STORM WAS NEAR HIGHWAY 285...30 MILES
WEST OF FORT STOCKTON. ANOTHER STRONG STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR FORT
STOCKTON. BOTH STORMS WERE MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH.

GUSTY WINDS... SMALL HAIL... HEAVY RAIN... AND DEADLY LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>