Severe Thunderstorm Warning 228, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
324 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2009

.UPDATE...
UPDATE TO INCLUDE TORNADO WATCH 398 FOR SCURRY AND MITCHELL
COUNTIES UNTIL 11 PM CDT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE RESULTING IN SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS
SOUTHWEST TEXAS...WHILE CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS WHERE VERTICAL AND
DIRECTIONAL 0 TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR WAS BETTER. EXPECT CONVECTION TO
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD...ESPECIALLY SINCE
THERE IS SOME HINT OF AT LEAST A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY IMPINGING UPON THE CWA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  67

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2009/

DISCUSSION...
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH
AN OSCILLATING DRYLINE IN PLACE. VERY INTENSE DAYTIME HEATING
ALONG WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW SHOULD HELP IGNITE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS MAINLY WEST TEXAS. A FEW STORMS COULD BE
SEVERE GIVEN CAPE VALES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG WITH MARGINAL
SHEAR VALES OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS.

BEYOND TUESDAY KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW AS THE GFS BUILDS AN
UPPER RIDGE WESTWARD OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
RIDGE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CONTINUES TO
GENERATE CONVECTION NEAR THE DRYLINE. THE GFS ENSEMBLES DO NOT
SUPPORT THE ECMWF AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX              72  98  70  98  /  30  30  30  20
CARLSBAD NM                66  98  65 100  /  10  20  20  10
DRYDEN TX                  74  99  72 100  /  20  10  20  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           73 100  71  99  /  30  30  20  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          64  88  66  96  /  20  20  20  10
HOBBS NM                   67  98  65 100  /  20  30  30  20
MARFA TX                   60  90  57  94  /  30  30  20  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    72  98  70 100  /  30  30  30  20
ODESSA TX                  72  98  70 100  /  30  30  30  20
WINK TX                    72 100  71 104  /  20  30  30  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

99/99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
339 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2009

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-142045-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
339 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2009 /239 PM MDT SAT JUN 13 2009/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AND EAST OF A PRESIDIO TO PECOS TO
SEMINOLE LINE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP...ALTHOUGH AN
ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
COUNTY WARNING AREA. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM
CDT FOR SCURRY AND MITCHELL COUNTIES.

IN ADDITION...HIGH TEMPERATURES OF 100-105 WARRANT CAUTION FOR THOSE
OUTSIDE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIODS OF TIME. WEAR LIGHT COLORED CLOTHES
AND DRINK PLENTY OF WATER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY
EAST OF A HOBBS TO CRANE LINE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS RECOMMENDED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
401 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2009

TXZ058-074-132130-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
401 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR CENTRAL JEFF DAVIS AND
SOUTHWESTERN REEVES COUNTIES.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 16 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TOYAVALE AT
400 PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.  ADDITIONAL STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING RAPIDLY OVER JEFF DAVIS AND REEVES
COUNTY.

GUSTY WINDS OVER 50 MPH...HAIL...HEAVY RAIN...AND DEADLY LIGHTNING
ARE POSSIBLE WITH ALL OF THESE STORMS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
429 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2009

TXZ058-067-075-132200-
WARD-PECOS-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
429 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR EAST CENTRAL REEVES...NORTH
CENTRAL PECOS AND SOUTHEASTERN WARD COUNTIES.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER COYANOSA AT 428 PM
CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.  ADDITIONAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WERE DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN REEVES COUNTY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25
MPH.

GUSTY WINDS OVER 50 MPH...HAIL...HEAVY RAIN...AND DEADLY LIGHTNING
ARE POSSIBLE WITH ALL OF THESE STORMS.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
451 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0446 PM     HAIL             ODESSA                  31.85N 102.37W
06/13/2009  E1.25 INCH       ECTOR              TX   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            WINDS UP TO 70 MPH REPORTED.

&&

SCHULDT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
454 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0451 PM     HAIL             ODESSA                  31.85N 102.37W
06/13/2009  E1.75 INCH       ECTOR              TX   PUBLIC

&&

SCHULDT