Severe Thunderstorm Warning 221, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
254 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2009

.DISCUSSION...
VERY BUSY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA WITH ACTIVE STORMS ON THE
SCOPE. BULK OF ACTIVITY NOW CONFINED TO THE NORTHEASTERN PERMIAN
BASIN AND CENTRAL TRANS PECOS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO BEST LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AS NOTED ON LATEST SURFACE OBS. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE IN
RESPONSE TO FAVORABLE POSITION WITHIN A MIGRATING UPPER-LEVEL JET
STREAK (RIGHT REAR QUADRANT)...ALONG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A
MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT FROM A DEEP TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST. ARRIVAL
OF DRY AIR ALOFT HAS MORE THAN LIKELY INCREASED THE CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION WHICH HAS HELP IN T-STORM
INITIATION. THAT SAID...SPC MESOANYALYIS PAGE INDICATING A SBCAPE
INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDING NORTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY
OF A LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE/TROUGH AXIS...NOW ORIENTED FROM
NEAR KLES SOUTHWARD THROUGH KFST AND THE RIO GRANDE. 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES RANGING FROM 45-60 KTS THIS AFTERNOON SUGGEST A
CONDUCIVE ATMOSPHERE FOR CONTINUED SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT.
LATEST RADAR TRENDS NOW SHOWING WELL DEVELOPED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
EMANATING FROM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN. AS
THESE BOUNDARIES MOVE SOUTH...ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN AS FAVORABLE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EXISTS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S. LATEST CALL WITH SPC HAS RESULTED IN THE EXTENSION OF
THE PREVIOUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHEASTERN
PERMIAN BASIN UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING. HAVE DECIDED TO INCREASE
POPS ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND LOWER TRANS PECOS WHILE ALSO
MAINTAINING SEVERE MENTION THROUGH THE LATE EVENING.

BY TOMORROW...CAN EXPECT A NICE WARM UP ACROSS THE AREA AS THE
DRYLINE/CONVERGENCE ZONE IS PUSHED EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A
SOUTHWARD MIGRATING COLD FRONT/ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.
THAT SAID...H85 THERMAL RIDGE AXIS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE AND
MORE DEVELOPED EACH DAY WITH CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGESTING THAT
FRI AND SAT AS THE WARMEST DAYS WITH H85 TEMPS APPROACHING 32C
ACROSS KMAF. WITH THE DRYLINE/CONVERGENCE ZONE EAST OF THE
AREA...FAVORABLE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL BE THE NAME OF THE
GAME...HELPING TO KEEP TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. NOT TO MANY CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AS INHERITED
GRIDS APPEARED TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION. ONLY
NOTABLE CHANGE WAS THE ADDITION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN AND LOWER TRANS PECOS OF SAT AS THE
MID-LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP/STRENGTHEN.
CONTINUED SHWR/STORM CHANCES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES BEFORE UPPER TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES DIGGING ALONG THE
WEST COAST EFFECTIVELY TAKING THE BEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO
THE WEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX              68  97  68  99  /  20   0  10   0
CARLSBAD NM                64  94  64 100  /  10   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  71 102  73 104  /  20   0  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           69 100  70 102  /  10   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          64  88  63  94  /  10   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   63  96  63 101  /  10   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   55  92  55  94  /  10   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    68  98  67 101  /  20   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  69  99  68 101  /  20   0   0   0
WINK TX                    66 101  67 105  /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

32/06

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
223 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2009

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-111930-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
223 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2009 /123 PM MDT WED JUN 10 2009/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND
EAST OF A SEMINOLE TO FORT STOCKTON TO PANTHER JUNCTION LINE.
SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS. HEAVY RAINFALL COULD ALSO
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE STOCKTON PLATEAU AND
PERMIAN BASIN...WHICH COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS AND GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON.  RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO USE CAUTION WITH
ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITY INVOLVING OPEN FLAMES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS AND GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS THURSDAY.  RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO USE CAUTION WITH ANY
OUTDOOR ACTIVITY INVOLVING OPEN FLAMES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION EAST OF A SEMINOLE TO FORT STOCKTON LINE IS
REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
302 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0253 PM     HAIL             3 W BAKERSFIELD         30.89N 102.35W
06/10/2009  E1.00 INCH       PECOS              TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED 3 MILES WEST OF BAKERSFIELD
            ALONG INTERSTATE HIGHWAY 10.

&&

CHRIS.DANIELS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
307 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0301 PM     HAIL             IRA                     32.58N 101.00W
06/10/2009  E0.88 INCH       SCURRY             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN IRA.

&&

CHRIS.DANIELS

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
319 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2009

TXZ053-102045-
MITCHELL-
319 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR SOUTHEASTERN MITCHELL COUNTY.

AN INTENSIFYING THUNDERSTORM WITH SMALL HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF
MARBLES AND GUSTY WINDS NEAR 50 MPH WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST
MITCHELL COUNTY AT 319 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHEASTERN MITCHELL COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER
SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR WEST TEXAS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
341 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 PM     HAIL             15 E BAKERSFIELD        30.89N 102.05W
06/10/2009  E1.00 INCH       PECOS              TX   PUBLIC

&&

CHRIS.DANIELS

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