Severe Thunderstorm Warning 170, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
328 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2009

.DISCUSSION...
CORRECTED TO READ WESTERN OKLAHOMA INSTEAD OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

00Z SOUNDING FROM YESTERDAY SHOWED MID LEVEL CAP THAT PREVENTED
CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING. TODAY THERE IS MOISTURE INCREASING IN
THE MID LEVELS WHICH IS HELPING CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN THE
MOUNTAINS WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER. HOWEVER THE MAIN AREA TO KEEP AN
EYE ON IS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTION IN THE PANHANDLE AND
WESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING APPROACHING THE NORTHEASTERN CWA.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND THE
OUTFLOW FROM THESE STORMS WILL KEEP PUSHING IT SOUTH WITH FURTHER
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LIKELY. MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WEST OF THE PECOS...BUT ONCE AGAIN THE GREATEST SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL LIE NORTHEAST OF MAF WHERE NAM SHEAR VALUES OF
40KTS AND CAPE OF 2.5KJ/KG ARE LOCATED. ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADOES
WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT PERHAPS THE BIGGER THREAT COULD BE VERY
LARGE AND DAMAGING HAIL.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP CONVECTION GOING A LITTLE LONGER THAN
USUAL TONIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN CWA...BUT INCREASING
STABILITY WILL ULTIMATELY DIMINISH CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TOMORROW AND COULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION TOMORROW AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG THE TRANS PECOS
REGION...HOWEVER A MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL GREATLY REDUCE
THE SEVERE THREAT FROM TODAY. BY THE END OF THE WEEK AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AND CENTER OVER WEST TEXAS INHIBITING
STORM DEVELOPMENT AND CAUSING TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 90S AND
100S. THIS RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A RETURN OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND MAX TEMPS TO
DROP SLIGHTLY. COULD SEE SPORADIC CONVECTION DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN
LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH THE RETURN OF SW UPPER FLOW...BUT FOR NOW
WILL LEAVE IT OUT OF THE FORECAST.

HENNIG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX              65  81  63  89  /  50  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                61  87  60  93  /  10  10  20  10
DRYDEN TX                  68  90  70  93  /  40  30  30  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           64  88  63  91  /  40  20  20  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          61  89  57  92  /  10  10  20  10
HOBBS NM                   60  85  63  92  /  10  10  20  10
MARFA TX                   55  85  52  88  /  20  20  20  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    64  84  63  91  /  40  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  65  84  64  91  /  40  10  10  10
WINK TX                    66  90  64  96  /  20  10  20  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

44/10

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
357 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2009

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-032100-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
357 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2009 /257 PM MDT TUE JUN 2 2009/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...FROM THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE STOCKTON PLATEAU AND LOWER TRANS
PECOS. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALSO EXISTS THROUGH THE PERMIAN
BASIN AND WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS. THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL
INCREASE TO LIKELY TONIGHT AND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST PERMIAN
BASIN AND WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS. SOME OF THESE STORMS ARE MAY
BECOME SEVERE...SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN...WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY.  THESE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SPOTTER ACTIVATION.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
509 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2009

TXZ048-022230-
SCURRY-
509 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR NORTHERN SCURRY COUNTY.

AT 504 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
MONITORING AN INTENSIFYING THUNDERSTORM THAT WAS LOCATED ABOUT 15
MILES NORTH OF SNYDER...OR JUST EAST OF STATE HIGHWAY 208 NEAR THE
SCURRY AND KENT COUNTY BORDER. THIS STORM IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15
MPH. OTHER THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN
SCURRY COUNTY...GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 180.

THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY UNSTABLE...AND THESE STORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE. A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT TUESDAY
EVENING.

PERSONS IN NORTHERN SCURRY COUNTY...INCLUDING THOSE NEAR THE
COMMUNITIES OF FLUVANNA...DERMOTT AND SNYDER SHOULD MONITOR THE
WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. BE PREPARED TO TAKE QUICK ACTION IF A
WARNING IS ISSUED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
621 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2009

TXZ052-022345-
HOWARD-
621 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR NORTHERN HOWARD COUNTY.

A THUNDERSTORM WITH SMALL HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF MARBLES AND GUSTY
WINDS NEAR 50 MPH WAS LOCATED 5 MILES EAST OF FAIRVIEW AT 619 PM
CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

PEOPLE IN NORTHERN HOWARD COUNTY...INCLUDING THE CITY OF BIG
SPRING...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR
WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

IN ADDITION TO GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND HEAVY RAIN...DEADLY
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS POSSIBLE.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT TUESDAY EVENING
FOR WEST TEXAS.