Severe Thunderstorm Warning 100, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
643 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2009

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ON DRYLINE... HAVE INCLUDED
TEMPO TSRA FOR PEQ... FST... AND MAF.  STRONG OUTFLOWS OCCURRING
WITH THESE STORMS.  EXPECT MOST STORM ACTIVITY TO BE AWAY FROM TAF
SITES BY 03Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2009/

DISCUSSION...
TARGET AREA FOR TDY REMAINS ACRS THE TRANS PECOS MAINLY FROM THE FST
VICINITY...ACRS SRN PB...TO THE RIO GRANDE. NAM HAS BACKED OFF ON
PRECIP SOME FROM YESTERDAY HOWEVER GFS STILL HAS A BULLSEYE IN
THESE AREAS (PER LINDLEY SIGNATURE...3H RH). TSTMS THAT FORM WILL
DEVELOP IN FAVORABLE BULK WIND SHEAR...CAPE...7H-5H LR/S TO PRODUCE
SEVERE WX. LLJ WILL DEVELOP EARLY EVENING RESULTING IN BREEZY
CONDITIONS THRU MOST OF THE NIGHT ACRS PB. WELL DEFINED SFC LOW IS
PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACRS S PLAIN WED WHICH WILL ALLOW 85H THERMAL
RIDGE TO BE FARTHER E. DRY AIR ALSO BE FARTHER E WED...SO WARMER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE. 7H TEMPS OF 13-14C WILL IN
GENERAL RESULT IN STRONGER CAP TOO. BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE ACRS LOWER TRANS PECOS WHERE LOW LEVEL MSTR HOLDS. MEANWHILE
COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED INTO PANHANDLE WED PM AND SHOULD ARRIVE
IN CNTRL PB AROUND 12Z THUR. NAM12 SUGGEST FRONT WILL BE NEARING
THE MTNS BY 18Z THUR. BOUNDARY STILL EVIDENT IN PRESSURE/TEMP
FIELDS ACRS THE E AND IN GENERAL WILL BE A FOCUS FOR TSTMS. STEEP
7H-5H LR/S SFC DWPNTS IN THE M50S-60 YIELDING CAPES OF 3000 J/KG
PER NAM12 WITH VWS 30KTS...SO SEVERE STORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
FAR E AND S. TSTMS COULD DEVELOP NWD IN THE EVENING WITH LLJ AND
BOUNDARY. MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE WINDS THRU GDP PASS
WITH FROPA THUR AM. INDICATIONS ARE THAT SOMETHING CONVECTIVE WILL
HAPPEN FRIDAY. GFS HAS BEEN VERY PERSISTENT IN DEVELOPING A TRIPLET
QPF BULLSEYE FROM THE PANHANDLE INTO THE TRANS PECOS...AND 12Z NAM12
DEVELOPS A NEAR SOLID LINE OF PRECIP FROM KS SW INTO W TX...WHILE
ECMWF SOLN SHOWS MUCH OF THE SAME. MID LEVEL FLOW IS RATHER MESSY
THOUGH AS NW MID LEVEL FLOW IS DEVELOPING TO THE N WHILE A MORE
BROAD TROF IS NEAR THE DESERT SW. REGARDLESS MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
THAT DRYLINE WILL BE NEAR THE TX/NM LINE NEAR 00Z WHILE 7H TEMPS
OF 10-11C ALONG/E OF DRYLINE. VWS NOT IMPRESSIVE BUT CAPES NEAR
2000 J/KG...7H-5H LR/S AROUND 8.5 C/KM...AND PW NEARING 1.5 WILL
MAKE IT INTERESTING. ATTP WILL OPT TO EDGE POPS UP. AFOREMENTIONED
CONVECTION WILL SERVE TO RE-ENFORCE SFC BOUNDARY AND WITH NW FLOW
SAT POPS STILL WARRANTED. 7H TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO COOL INTO SUN
WITH INCREASING PRESENCE OF MID LEVEL RIDGE MON/TUE.

FIRE WEATHER...
OPTED TO ISSUE RFW FOR GDP MTNS WITH 3 SITES WITHIN THE GDP NP
REPORTING RFW CONDITIONS. LESSER WINDS IN THE NEW MEXICO PORTION OF
GDP MTNS...BUT STILL VERY DRY WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. ALSO THERE
MAY BE ISOLD STRIKES ACRS FAR E PARTS OF SE NM THRU THE AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE MORE OF THE SAME WED WITH LOCAL RFW CONDITIONS GENERALLY
IN THE GDP MTNS. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE HOT AND MIN RH OF 5-10 PCT
WILL BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD WITH DRY LINE PUSHING A LITTLE FARTHER E
WED.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
140 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2009

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-131130-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
140 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2009 /1240 PM MDT TUE MAY 12 2009/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF A LAMESA...
ODESSA...FORT STOCKTON...TO FORT DAVIS LINE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A FEW STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
IN ADDITION THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

DRY AIR WILL COMBINE WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT
PLAINS RESULTING IN LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN
PERMIAN BASIN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE GREATER CHANCE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ON THURSDAY.

DRY AIR WILL COMBINE WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS RESULTING IN
LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN AND THE LOWER TRAN PECOS INCLUDING THE
BIG BEND.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
628 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2009

TXZ063-130000-
GLASSCOCK-
628 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR CENTRAL GLASSCOCK COUNTY.

AN INTENSIFYING THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 15 MILES WEST OF GARDEN
CITY ALONG HIGHWAY 158 AT 627 PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

AS THIS THUNDERSTORM INCREASES...SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP RAPIDLY.

PEOPLE IN CENTRAL GLASSCOCK COUNTY...INCLUDING THE CITY OF GARDEN
CITY...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR
WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT
TUESDAY EVENING FOR WEST TEXAS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
647 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0628 PM     HAIL             4 W BIG SPRING          32.25N 101.55W
05/12/2009  E0.88 INCH       HOWARD             TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            INTERSTATE 20 AT MILE MARKER 172.

&&

MICHELLE.SCHULDT

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