Red Flag Warning 6, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

000 
WWUS84 KMAF 141959
RFWMAF

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
159 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2009

...A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM MST FOR WINDY
CONDITIONS...LOW HUMIDITY AND VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...

.LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 15 PERCENT ALONG WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WIND SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE 
THIS EVENING...HOWEVER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN LOW.

NMZ114-TXZ258-150200-
/O.CON.KMAF.FW.W.0006.000000T0000Z-090215T0200Z/
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
1259 PM MST SAT FEB 14 2009

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS
EVENING...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS EVENING.

WEST TO SOUTHWEST 20 FOOT WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR PROMOTING RAPID FIRE
GROWTH AND SPREAD ACROSS THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS TODAY.

&&

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
419 AM CST SAT FEB 14 2009

.DISCUSSION...
QUICK 09Z MESOANALYSIS REVEALING COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE
REGION EARLIER THIS EVENING CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH WESTWARD AND
NOW RESIDES ALONG A ROW...GDP...6R6 LINE. BEHIND THE FRONT...COOL
NORTHEASTERLY COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING TO INUNDATE THE
REGION...WITH WINDS IN THE 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE. SUSTAINED WINDS
HAVE PREVENTED A TOTAL DROP-OFF IN TEMPS DESPITE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES. TO THE SOUTH...ENHANCED
REGION OF UPPER CI SPILLING ACROSS THE BIG BEND AREA IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A PRONOUNCED SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK. AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT OF EXPECTED HIGH TEMPS
TODAY...WITH EASTERN ZONES REMAINING RATHER COOL WHILE LOCATIONS
WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY WARM APPRECIABLY THANKS IN PART TO
A DECENT H85 THERMAL RIDGE AND WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW. HAD TO
MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO INHERITED HIGHS AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
LIKELY RESIDE A LITTLE FURTHER WEST THAN EARLIER FORECAST MODEL RUNS
INDICATED. FORECASTED H85 TEMPS ACROSS KMAF REALLY ONLY SUPPORT
UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60...WITH WRF/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING A
CAPPED MIXED LAYER WHICH SHOULD PREVENT WARMER AIR ALOFT FROM
MIXING TO THE SURFACE. THUS FEEL BEST TO DROP TEMPS A COUPLE
DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE PERMIAN BASIN IN CLOSE COLLABORATION
WITH ADJACENT WFOS...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS MINIMAL AT BEST
AS FRONTAL PLACEMENT WILL MEAN EVERYTHING. ASIDE FROM
TEMPS...REGION WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED BY A MIGRATING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EXITING THE FOUR CORNERS INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
ASSOCIATED H70 FLOW EXPECTED IN INCREASE AS A MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX
ROTATES ALONG THE UNDERBELLY OF THE TROUGH. IN PREVIOUS
FORECASTS...WAS SLIGHTLY CONCERNED WITH HIGH WIND POTENTIAL ACROSS
THE GUADALUPE/S...HOWEVER WITH MAIN VORT LOBE REMAINING AS FAR
NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN CO AND WITH THE EXPECTED SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINING RELATIVELY WEAK...FEEL HIGH WIND POTENTIAL WILL
NOT BE MET.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE LITTLE OVERNIGHT WITH WESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THUS
FEEL SOME COMPRESSIONAL WARMING POTENTIAL EXISTS AND HAVE FALLOWED A
WARMER MAV/FWC BLEND. BY SUN...WEAK UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN
BUILDING OVER THE AREA...WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH MIGRATING
EAST FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES INTO THE UPPER MISS VLY.
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD...PUSHING THE STALLED
FRONT TO OUR SOUTH AND ALLOWING COOL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO SETTLE
INTO THE REGION. COOL TEMPS EXPECTED AREA WIDE ON SUNDAY...MORE IN
ACCORDANCE WITH SEASONAL NORMS. RETURN FLOW EXPECTED TO BECOME
ESTABLISHED SUNDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST.
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ALONG THE 290-295 THETA SURFACES SUGGEST
POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION ON MONDAY AND
THUS HAVE STAYED AT OR JUST BELOW GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EAST. UPPER PACIFIC WAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUE...SENDING A PACIFIC FRONT/DRYLINE
AND ANY AVAILABLE MOISTURE EAST. STRONG WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW
LIKELY AREA WIDE AND THUS A NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND WILL BE ON TAPS
FOR THE AREA ALONG WITH POTENTIAL HIGH WIND AND ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSSIBLE TUE
NIGHT...WITH CONTINUED STRONG WINDS ON WED. ANOTHER SERIES OF
FRONTS INDICATED TOWARDS THE CONCLUSION OF THE WEEK SUGGESTING
BELOW/NEAR NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

.FIRE WEATHER...
ANOTHER NIGHT OF POOR RH RECOVERY IS IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO WITH CURRENT
RH/S MAINLY BELOW 35%. FARTHER EAST INTO THE PLAINS...A COLD FRONT
WAS LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG THE PECOS RIVER. BEHIND THIS FRONT...
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BRING GOOD RH RECOVER THIS MORNING.

THE MAIN ARE OF CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS AS
THIS REGION WILL LIKELY STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING 20 FOOT
WINDS ABOVE 20 MPH FOR MORE THAN 3 HOURS. MINIMUM RH/S SHOULD HAVE
NO PROBLEM DROPPING BELOW 15% FOR MORE THAN 3 HOURS. WE HAVE OPTED
TO UPGRADE THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING. WE WILL
START THE WARNING A FEW HOURS EARLY AS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL
LIKELY SEE WESTERLY WINDS ABOVE 20 MPH THIS MORNING.

THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELED FOR THE PLAINS OF
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. WHILE RH/S WILL DROP BELOW 15% THIS
AFTERNOON...WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY NOT REACH 20 MPH SUSTAINED FOR
MORE THAN 3 HOURS TODAY. AREAS WEST OF A ROSWELL TO CARLSBAD LINE
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CAREFULLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THIS AREA
WILL BE FIRST TO SEE DRY...WESTERLY WINDS.

THE NEXT DAY FOR INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY COME ON TUESDAY
AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVES NORTH OF THE REGION BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX              53  35  60  41  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                68  32  61  37  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  68  41  67  45  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           70  40  66  43  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          60  35  56  40  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   64  33  59  35  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   68  30  62  33  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    58  33  61  38  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  61  35  62  40  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    69  35  66  41  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MST THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN
     NF/LNZ.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MST THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.

&&

32/06

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
351 AM CST SAT FEB 14 2009

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-151000-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
351 AM CST SAT FEB 14 2009 /251 AM MST SAT FEB 14 2009/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS BEGINNING THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT AS WEATHER CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH VERY DRY FUELS WILL FAVOR RAPID GROWTH AND SPREAD OF
ANY FIRE STARTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF WEST TEXAS
AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO ON TUESDAY. THIS COMBINATION OF DRY
AIR...WINDY CONDITIONS AND DRY FUELS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND