Red Flag Warning 36, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
423 AM CDT THU APR 23 2009

.DISCUSSION...

MUCH TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO SAY THE
LEAST. FIRST ITEM OF CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE APPROACHING MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW ROTATING INTO THE DESERT SW. ALONG THE
SFC...PRE-EXISTING LEESIDE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION INTO A
DRYLINE BY THIS AFTERNOON AS RETURN FLOW BEGINS MARCHING TOWARDS W.
TX/SE NM IN RESPONSE TO FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT. WITH THAT SAID...SHORT
TERM CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERATE QPF ACROSS
MUCH OF W TX. MODELS HAVE BEEN RATHER CONSISTENT IN RECENT DAYS WITH
THIS SUGGESTION SO CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT TSRA DEVELOPMENT
IS LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BETTER UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT
SUGGESTED BY 00Z MODEL RUNS THIS EVENING AS A CYCLONICALLY CURVED
JET STREAK WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION PLACING CWA IN THE
FAVORABLE POLEWARD EXIT REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING WINDS
ALOFT WILL SUPPORT STRENGTHENING 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VECTORS BY THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WHICH COMBINED WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF
1000-1500 J/KG SHOULD ALLOW STORMS TO DEVELOP. BEST MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE REMAINS ACROSS THE LWR PECOS RVR VLY...HOWEVER AREA
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A WEAKLY CAPPED EML LOCATED ACROSS THE
AREA. HOWEVER WITH INCREASED UPSLOPE FLOW DURING THE AFTERNOON OWING
TO BACKED LOW-LEVEL WINDS...FEEL CONFIDENT THAT THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN CWA IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE STRONGEST SHEAR. 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR VECTORS ORIENTED NORMAL TO THE DRYLINE SUGGEST
ISOLATED CLUSTERS/SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VLY. DRY ADIABATIC
LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE MID-LEVELS SUGGEST LOW PRECIPITATION
SUPERCELLS WILL BE MOST PROBABLE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG
DOWNBURSTS REMAINING THE BIGGEST THREATS. MODELS DO HINT THAT
ACTIVITY MAY CONGEAL INTO AN MCS/CLUSTER BY EARLY EVENING BEFORE
RACING OFF AND DISSIPATING TO THE EAST. FOR NOW...HAVE INCREASED
POPS ACROSS W. TX WHILE MAINTAINING DRY T-STORM POTENTIAL ACROSS
THE GUADALUPE MTS. AND EXTREME SE NM. MAY BE A BIT WEST WITH
MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER OWING TO POSITION OF
DRYLINE...HOWEVER AM FAVORING THE FURTHER WESTWARD PLACEMENT OF
THE LINE AS CURRENTLY SUGGESTED BY THE WRF IN RESPONSE TO FALLING
HEIGHTS ALOFT AND INCREASE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AHEAD. MADE VERY
LITTLE CHANGE TO INHERITED HIGHS AS GOING SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN THE RULE OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS.

NOT MUCH CONCERNS FOR FRI AS UPPER-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL OVERSPREAD
AREA IN WAKE OF DEPARTING UPPER WAVE. IN THE MEANTIME...NEXT
STRONG/POSITIVELY TILTED WAVE TO BEGIN DIGGING ALONG THE WEST
COAST/GREAT BASIN AREA BY FRI AFTERNOON. FEATURE WILL BE FIRST IN
TWO SEPARATE PIECES OF ENERGY TO AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND. FIRST PIECE OF ENERGY TO ARRIVE ON SAT AS THE MAIN UPPER
WAVE PASSES TO THE NORTH. SFC DRYLINE WILL LIKELY MAKE LITTLE
PROGRESS TO THE EAST AS IT REMAINS PARKED ALONG THE TX/NM BORDER
OWING TO FALLING HEIGHTS IN INCREASED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE BY AFTERNOON.
FAVORABLE KINEMATICS ALOFT ONCE AGAIN WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY TO
THE EAST WILL LIKELY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL TSRA POTENTIAL DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SPC HAS EXTENDED THE DAY 3 SLIGHT RISK AREA FURTHER
SOUTH...AND BASED IN THIS...HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND ISO POPS
FURTHER WEST IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO EXPECTED DRYLINE POSITION. SCT
SHWRS/STORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING H85 FLOW. SUN STILL
APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN DAY OF CONCERN AS STRONGER/DEEPER TROUGH
SETTLES INTO THE 4 CORNERS REGION. AM FAVORING THE FURTHER
WESTWARD POSITION OF THE DRYLINE/FRONT AS SUGGESTED BY THE 12Z
ECMWF AS HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREAD THE AREA LOW-LEVEL WINDS ONCE
AGAIN BACK. FAVORABLE UPPER SUPPORT IN THE FORM OF STRONG
VORTICITY ADVECTION ALONG WITH FAVORABLE POSITION UNDER COUPLED
JETS ALOFT SUGGESTS PLENTY OF SUPPORT WILL BE PRESENT TO INITIATE
CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE PRETTY MUCH LEFT POPS/WX
ALONG ON SUN AS PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
SITUATION.

EXTENDED (MON-THU)

BY MONDAY SOUTHERN STREAM OF UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING INTO
WESTERN PART OF AREA AS ADDITIONAL LOBE ROTATES ACROSS NEVADA.
A NUMBER OF WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAME WITH A LARGE CUT OFF LOW SPINNING OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.  THIS WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL
PERIODS OF LOW POPS.  MONDAY APPEARS TO HAVE PRECIP CONTINUING FROM
OVERNIGHT MOVING OUT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.  MODELS DEVELOP
ADDITIONAL PRECIP MAINLY EAST AND NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES.  EXPECT SOME OF THIS
WOULD BE SEVERE BUT NO ONE PERIOD STANDS OUT.  A COLD FRONT BLOWS
INTO NORTHEAST PART OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH MODELS NOW
HANGING THE FRONT UP NEAR THE PECOS RIVER BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD
WITH DEVELOPMENT OF NEXT SURFACE LOW.  LATEST LONG RANGE GUIDANCE
MUCH WARMER THAN ONE 24 HRS AGO... SO HAVE RAISED TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES.

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WX WATCH FOR TODAY WAS NOT LOOKING VERY PROMISING.  WHILE VERY
DRY CONDITIONS WILL DEFINITELY BE THERE IT DOES NOT APPEAR 20 FT
WINDS WILL REACH 20 MPH CRITERIA TODAY EXCEPT FOR GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS.  WENT AHEAD AND UPGRADED GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS TO RED FLAG
WARNING AND DROPPED OTHER COUNTIES.  IF WIND TURNS OUT STRONGER THAN
FORECASTED COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS MAY NEEDED
TO BE ADDED TO THE WARNING AT A LATER TIME.  COULD HAVE SOME DRY
LIGHTING AGAIN TODAY OVER THE WEST MAINLY FROM VAN HORN TO JAL WITH
WETTING RAIN EAST OF THERE.  VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE WEST NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A DRYLINE SETS UP BUT APPEARS
WIND WILL REMAIN LACKING ELEMENT FOR MORE CRITICAL FIRE WX
CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX              88  63  87  66  /  20  20   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                91  54  90  55  /  10  10   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  90  66  85  65  /  20  20   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           92  61  91  63  /  20  20   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          83  56  84  57  /  10  10   0   0
HOBBS NM                   90  53  89  56  /  10  10   0   0
MARFA TX                   83  44  84  46  /  20  10   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    91  62  89  64  /  20  20   0  10
ODESSA TX                  91  62  89  64  /  20  20   0   0
WINK TX                    96  61  96  62  /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN
     NF/LNZ.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.

&&

32/72

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
416 AM CDT THU APR 23 2009

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-240930-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
416 AM CDT THU APR 23 2009 /316 AM MDT THU APR 23 2009/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

VERY DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON... A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN
EFFECT. IN ADDITION... POSSIBLE DRY LIGHTING FROM VAN HORN TO NEAR
JAL WILL ALSO CREATE FIRE CONCERNS. HOWEVER... THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT GENERALLY EAST
OF A VALENTINE TO SEMINOLE LINE. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THE PRIMARY
CONCERNS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SPOTTER ACTIVATION THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING GENERALLY ACROSS THE TRANS PECOS AND PERMIAN BASIN.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND