Red Flag Warning 33, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

000 
WWUS84 KMAF 151921
RFWMAF

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
221 PM CDT WED APR 15 2009

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT ACROSS THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS AND
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS THROUGH 7 PM CDT/6 PM MDT FOR WINDY
CONDITIONS...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES NEAR 10 PERCENT...AND HIGH TO
VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER.

.BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES HAVE RESULTED IN
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS
AND THE ADJACENT SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS. THE COMBINATION OF
20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 10
TO 15 PERCENT...ONGOING DROUGHT...AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER
HAVE RESULTED WILL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THESE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO RELENT THIS EVENING...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE LOCAL
AREAS THAT HAVE RED FLAG CONDITIONS PERSIST LONGER...ESPECIALLY
WHERE WINDS AND TOPOGRAPHY ALIGN.

NMZ114-115-TXZ258-160000-
/O.CON.KMAF.FW.W.0033.000000T0000Z-090416T0000Z/
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ-
SOUTHEAST PLAINS/BLM ROSWELL/LNZ-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
121 PM MDT WED APR 15 2009

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS
EVENING...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING.

SOUTHWESTERLY 20 FOOT WINDS AROUND 20 TO 35 MPH WILL COMBINE WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES 10 TO 15 PERCENT...ONGOING DROUGHT...AND
HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER TO PROMOTE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
RAPID FIRE GROWTH AND SPREAD ACROSS THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS AND
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

AVOID THE USE OF OPEN FLAMES OR ANY ACTIVITIES THAT MAY GENERATE
SPARKS.  ACCIDENTAL IGNITIONS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO GROW
QUICKLY INTO DANGEROUS WIND DRIVEN WILDFIRES.

&&

$$

000 
WWUS84 KMAF 151949 CCA
RFWMAF

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
247 PM CDT WED APR 15 2009

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT ACROSS THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS AND
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS THROUGH 7 PM CDT/6 PM MDT FOR WINDY
CONDITIONS...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES NEAR 10 PERCENT...AND HIGH TO
VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER.

.BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES HAVE RESULTED IN
RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS AND THE
ADJACENT SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS. THE COMBINATION OF 20 FOOT
WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 10 TO 15
PERCENT...ONGOING DROUGHT...AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER HAVE
RESULTED IN THESE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THESE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO RELENT THIS EVENING...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE LOCAL
AREAS THAT HAVE RED FLAG CONDITIONS PERSIST LONGER...ESPECIALLY
WHERE WINDS AND TOPOGRAPHY ALIGN IN THE MOUNTAINS.

NMZ114-115-TXZ258-160000-
/O.CON.KMAF.FW.W.0033.000000T0000Z-090416T0000Z/
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ-
SOUTHEAST PLAINS/BLM ROSWELL/LNZ-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
147 PM MDT WED APR 15 2009

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS
EVENING...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING.

SOUTHWESTERLY 20 FOOT WINDS AROUND 20 TO 35 MPH WILL COMBINE WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES 10 TO 15 PERCENT...ONGOING DROUGHT...AND
HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER TO PROMOTE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
RAPID FIRE GROWTH AND SPREAD ACROSS THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS AND
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

AVOID THE USE OF OPEN FLAMES OR ANY ACTIVITIES THAT MAY GENERATE
SPARKS.  ACCIDENTAL IGNITIONS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO GROW
QUICKLY INTO DANGEROUS WIND DRIVEN WILDFIRES.

&&

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
339 AM CDT WED APR 15 2009

.DISCUSSION...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DIRTY UPPER RIDGING OVER THE THE PLAINS
STATES...WHILE THE NEXT TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CA/NV AND
DIGGING ESE.  MAIN CONCERNS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE FIRE WX AND
POSSIBLY SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE PB...LWR TRANS
PECOS...AND WRN LOW ROLLING PLAINS.  SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE NAM
INITIALIZED BETTER THAN THE GFS ON LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS...AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST TEMPS CLOSER TO WHAT THE NAM IS
ADVERTISING FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THAT SAID...LEESIDE SFC
TROUGHING WILL INCREASE SW FLOW THROUGH THE GUADALUPES AND SE NM
PLAINS TODAY...FOR ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF MARGINALLY CRITICAL FIRE WX
CONDITIONS.  RH/S WILL BE RIGHT ON THE FENCE AGAIN...BUT WINDS
SHOULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY.  ONLY INHIBITING FACTOR
MIGHT BE CLOUD COVER TO LIMIT AFTERNOON MIXING.  STILL...WE/VE
CONVERTED TODAY/S WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
REGARDING AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN ZONES...MODELS
ADVERTISE A WEAK CONVERGENCE AXIS SETTING UP THIS AFTERNOON NEAR
KMAF...BUT MOISTURE RETURN LOOKS LOUSY...W/SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S
AND LOWER 50S BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN ZONES...W/LIMITED
INSTABILITY.  THUS...HAVE SCALED BACK POPS TO ISOLATED CONVECTION
FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

CHANCES LOOK MUCH BETTER THURSDAY...AS UPPER TROUGH NEARS THE AREA.
FIRE WX CONCERNS AGAIN LOOK MARGINAL...BUT THE TIMING OF THE
TROUGH--STILL OVER NW NM BY 00Z FRIDAY--AS WELL AS RH/WIND
FIELDS...SUGGESTS A WATCH IS NOT WARRANTED ATTM.  HOWEVER...THINGS
CONTINUE TO SHAPE UP FOR A SEVERE EVENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
AS MODELS SET UP A DRYLINE OVER THE AREA.  THE NAM SETS UP A LITTLE
FURTHER WEST THAN THE GFS...SIMILAR TO WHAT HAPPENED LAST WEEKEND.
GIVEN THE EXPECTED SE FLOW EAST OF THE DRYLINE AS SFC GRADIENTS
TIGHTEN..AND THE POSITION OF THE TROUGH...DRYLINE COULD BUILD AS FAR
WEST AS KINK BEFORE RAPIDLY MOVING EAST AFTER SUNSET.  EAST OF THE
DRYLINE...FORECAST NAM SOUNDINGS PORTRAY SBCAPES IN EXCESS OF 1500
J/KG...W/STEEP MID-LEVEL LRS AND OPTIMAL WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS FOR
HAIL.  ALSO...DEEP-LAYER BULK SHEAR IS CONDUCIVE TO SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT...45-50KTS.  THUS...WE/LL STICK CLOSE TO HPC QPFS...AND
MENTION LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

OTHERWISE...DRY...NW FLOW ALOFT FOLLOWS THE TROUGH INTO THE
EXTENDED...FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS UNTIL NEXT TUESDAY...WHEN A
RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX              80  57  76  51  /  10  10  10  60
CARLSBAD NM                80  52  72  38  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  86  60  80  54  /   0   0   0  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           86  53  82  46  /   0   0   0  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX          73  45  67  40  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   79  47  76  39  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   78  42  75  35  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    83  55  78  48  /  10  10   0  50
ODESSA TX                  82  55  76  46  /  10  10   0  50
WINK TX                    85  53  82  41  /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN
     NF/LNZ...SOUTHEAST PLAINS/BLM ROSWELL/LNZ.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.

&&

10/44

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
225 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2009

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-151930-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
225 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2009 /125 PM MDT TUE APR 14 2009/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS MAY RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOURS ACROSS THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS AND THE
ADJACENT SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS MAY RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN
PERMIAN BASIN AND THE LOWER TRANS PECOS REGION ALONG AND EAST OF A
DRYLINE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE REGION. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE
GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A HOBBS...KERMIT...MARATHON LINE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS AND STORM SPOTTER GROUPS ACROSS THE
PERMIAN BASIN AND THE TRANS PECOS REGION SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS REGARDING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE LOW. HOWEVER...SPOTTER
ACTIVATION WILL BE MORE LIKELY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND