Flash Flood Warning 52, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

000 
WGUS74 KMAF 231714
FFSMAF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1214 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2009

TXC135-329-231718-
/O.EXP.KMAF.FF.W.0052.000000T0000Z-090723T1715Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ECTOR-MIDLAND-
1214 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2009

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 1215 PM CDT FOR MIDLAND AND
ECTOR COUNTIES...

AT 1208 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
THAT RAINFALL HAD ENDED ACROSS MIDLAND AND ECTOR COUNTIES. THE 
MIDLAND AND ODESSA POLICE DEPARTMENTS ALSO REPORTS THAT FLOODING HAS 
RECEDED. THUS...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. 

LAT...LON 3208 10178 3166 10177 3167 10273 3207 10275

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
646 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2009

.DISCUSSION...
SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION CONTINUES EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
HIGHER TERRAIN OF WEST TEXAS. RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN...WESTERN LOW ROLLING
PLAINS AND PECOS RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION EITHER PREVAILING OR TEMPO GROUPS FOR SHRA AT OUR TEXAS
TAF SITES. ELSEWHERE...MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY AFFECT KCNM AND
KHOB...ALONG WITH SOME PATCH FOG. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS SOME
CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINS. WE COULD SEE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF WEST TEXAS...WITH
THIS ACTIVITY DRIFTING EAST INTO THE LOWER TRANS PECOS REGION. WE
HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30 FOR TSRA AT KFST FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 504 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2009/

DISCUSSION...
RAINFALL CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE PERMIAN BASIN AND WESTERN
LOW ROLLING PLAINS THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING SUPPORTED
BY A SLOW MOVING VORTICITY MAXIMUM (NOTICEABLE IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY)...UPSLOPE FLOW AND WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT. THE MAF VWP IS
INDICATING THAT THE 850 HPA NOCTURNAL JET IS NOT AS STRONG AS IT
WAS YESTERDAY MORNING AND THIS COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
VORT MAX SHOULD RESULT IN DECREASING COVERAGE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING
HOURS AS IT SLOWLY PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD. WE HAVE INCREASED POPS NEAR THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREA TO 40-70 PERCENT BEFORE 1 PM CDT. DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE
SOUTHERN CWA OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND
BIG BEND REGION WHERE THE REMNANTS OF SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
RESIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE TRICKY TODAY DEPENDING ON WHERE
THE FASTEST CLEARING OCCURS. OUR CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
SOUTHEAST NM AND THE UPPER TRANS PECOS SHOULD SEE THE WARMEST
HIGHS...BUT WITH WIDELY SATURATED GROUNDS AND 850 HPA TEMPS
STRUGGLING TO CLIMB INTO THE 20 C RANGE EAST OF THE PECOS RIVER
VALLEY...TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEAR THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE
THERE.

BY TOMORROW...MORE OF A NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT RETURNS OVER THE AREA
WITH MID TO UPPER DRYING AND INCREASED SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.
HEIGHTS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO INCREASE AND WARMER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY SUNDAY THOUGH...A MID TO UPPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST RESULTING IN
INCREASED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND LOWER HEIGHTS ACROSS WEST
TEXAS ONCE AGAIN. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE MULTIPLE MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MAKE THEIR WAY THROUGH EAST NM AND
THE TX PANHANDLE FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. COOLER TEMPS
AND RAIN CHANCES WILL ACCOMPANY THESE FEATURES TRAVELING WITHIN
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED OVER SE NM AND
THE NORTHERN CWA FOR THIS REASON ON SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING AND
WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE RAISED IN THE NEAR FUTURE AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES
IN THESE FEATURES IMPACTING THE REGION.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

06

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
358 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2009

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-240900-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
358 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2009 /258 AM MDT THU JUL 23 2009/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS WEST
TEXAS. THE MOST CONCENTRATED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS...PERMIAN BASIN AND LOWER TRANS PECOS.
BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING STRIKES CAN BE EXPECTED. LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER THE MOST PERSISTENT STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND