Flash Flood Warning 22, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

000 
WGUS74 KMAF 010300
FFSMAF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1000 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2009

TXC227-010310-
/O.EXP.KMAF.FF.W.0022.000000T0000Z-090601T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HOWARD-
1000 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2009

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR WESTERN HOWARD COUNTY...

AT 1000 PM CDT...THE CONDITIONS LEADING TO THE ISSUANCE OF A FLASH
FLOOD WARNING HAD CEASED...REMOVING THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING OVER
HOWARD COUNTY. THEREFORE THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WAS ALLOWED TO 
EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 3229 10168 3245 10158 3252 10146 3236 10131
      3214 10140 3212 10168

$$



70

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
626 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2009

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS. WE HAVE DECIDED TO
INCLUDE VCTS FOR MOST OF THE TERMINALS AND TEMPORARY TSRA GROUPS
FOR KMAF AND KHOB THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW IN STORMS PASSING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD
CONSIDERING THE LIMITED COVERAGE AT THE MOMENT. WINDS WILL ALSO
BRIEFLY SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST BEHIND AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
AT THE KMAF TERMINAL WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH WITH SUNSET...AND THE REMAINING CLOUDS
SHOULD SLOWLY DO THE SAME THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2009/

DISCUSSION...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A REX BLOCK WELL OFF THE CA COAST AND
SLOWLY SETTLING ESE...WHILE FURTHER EAST...A CUT-OFF LOW CENTERED
OVER NW NV SLOWLY MOVES ENE.  THIS FEATURE HAS DAMPENED/SHIFTED THE
UPPER RIDGE EAST...AND FLOW ALOFT OVER SE NM/W TEXAS IS GENERALLY
ZONAL AS A RESULT.  LATEST SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES THE THETA-E RIDGE
HAS SHIFTED TO THE EASTERN CWA...OVER WHICH A BROAD CU FIELD HAS
DEVELOPED.  AREA RADARS SHOW CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE
SERRANIAS DEL BURRO ALONG THE THETA-E RIDGE...AND ATTEMPTING TO
DEVELOP OVER THE DAVIS MTNS.  HOWEVER...W/THE THETA-E RIDGE SO FAR
EAST...AND WEAKER UPSLOPE FLOW THAN YESTERDAY...OROGRAPHIC
CONVECTION WILL STRUGGLE UNTIL IT GETS OUT INTO THE PLAINS FURTHER
EAST...AND NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS YESTERDAY.  INSTEAD...BEST CHANCES
WILL BE IN THE EAST...OWING TO THE THETA-E RIDGE AND DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING.  KMAF 12Z RAOB ANALYSIS SHOWS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY TO WORK
WITH...CONTINUED ANEMIC SHEAR...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND
OPTIMAL WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS...FOR SLOW-MOVING HAILERS AND A FLASH
FLOOD THREAT.

OTHERWISE...MODELS SHEAR OUT THE CUT-OFF LOW AND...ONCE IT MOVES OFF
TO THE NE...DIRTY RIDGING WILL RESUME ONCE AGAIN...RESULTING IN A
WARMING TREND MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  SFC RIDGE TO THE WEST AND LEESIDE
TROUGHING STILL FAVOR DRYLINE DEVELOPMENT BOTH DAYS...W/ISOLATED TO
SLIGHT CHANCES OF CONVECTION IN THE EAST...NEARER THE THETA-E
RIDGE.  TUESDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT IS STILL PROGGED INTO THE
FA...W/THE GFS BRINGING IT INTO THE EXTREME NORTHERN ZONES BY 06Z
WEDNESDAY.  MODELS ARE STRONGER W/THE FRONT THAN 24 HRS
AGO...BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES OF CONVECTION...AND COOLER
TEMPS WEDNESDAY.  FROM THURSDAY FORWARD...CONTINUED GRADUAL WARMING
AND A DRY FCST ARE IN STORE AS REX BLOCK PUMPS UP AND UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE AREA.  MODELS ARE A LITTLE COOLER IN THE EXTENDED THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

78

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1248 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2009

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-011800-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
1248 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2009 /1148 AM MDT SUN MAY 31 2009/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS A
GOOD PORTION OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED...A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE TRANS PECOS REGION. THE MAIN
CONCERN WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...THEN TUESDAY
ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN ALONG A FRONT. A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE TRANS
PECOS REGION. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
325 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2009

TXZ074-075-312100-
PECOS-DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-
325 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR EAST CENTRAL JEFF DAVIS...NORTH
CENTRAL BREWSTER AND WEST CENTRAL PECOS COUNTIES.

A THUNDERSTORM WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WAS LOCATED 10 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF HOVEY AT 325 PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

PEA TO MARBLE SIZED HAIL AND WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 50 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE.

PEOPLE IN EAST CENTRAL JEFF DAVIS...NORTH CENTRAL BREWSTER AND WEST
CENTRAL PECOS COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY.
LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...HEAVY RAIN...AND DEADLY LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
412 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2009

NMZ028-TXZ058-059-312145-
EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-LOVING-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
312 PM MDT SUN MAY 31 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR NORTHEASTERN CULBERSON...
NORTHWESTERN LOVING...NORTHWESTERN REEVES AND SOUTH CENTRAL EDDY
COUNTIES.

A THUNDERSTORM WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WAS LOCATED ABOUT 10
MILE SOUTHEAST OF WHITES CITY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL EDDY COUNTY AT 311
PM MDT/411 PM CDT/...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

MARBLE SIZED HAIL...WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 50 MPH...AND DEADLY
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE.

PEOPLE IN NORTHEASTERN CULBERSON...NORTHWESTERN LOVING...NORTHWESTERN
REEVES AND SOUTH CENTRAL EDDY COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER
SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
446 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2009

TXZ068-075-312215-
CRANE-PECOS-
446 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL PECOS AND
SOUTHEASTERN CRANE COUNTIES.

AN INTENSIFYING THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 12 MILES WEST OF GIRVIN AT
446 PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

AS THIS THUNDERSTORM STRENGTHENS...SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP
RAPIDLY.

PEOPLE IN NORTH CENTRAL PECOS AND SOUTHEASTERN CRANE COUNTIES SHOULD
MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN
ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

GUSTY WINDS...HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF MARBLES...HEAVY RAIN...AND
DEADLY LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
522 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2009

TXZ046-047-051-052-312245-
BORDEN-DAWSON-HOWARD-MARTIN-
522 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR EASTERN DAWSON...NORTHEASTERN
MARTIN...NORTHWESTERN HOWARD AND SOUTHWESTERN BORDEN COUNTIES.

AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED JUST WEST OF ACKERLY
AND 10 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF TARZAN AT 520 PM CDT...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

PEOPLE IN EASTERN DAWSON...NORTHEASTERN MARTIN...NORTHWESTERN HOWARD
AND SOUTHWESTERN BORDEN COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION
CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF MARBLES...HEAVY RAIN...
AND DEADLY LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
533 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2009

TXZ063-312300-
GLASSCOCK-
533 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR EASTERN GLASSCOCK COUNTY.

A THUNDERSTORM WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WAS LOCATED 7 MILES
SOUTH OF GARDEN CITY AT 533 PM CDT...MOVING NORTH AT 5 MPH.

MARBLE SIZED HAIL AND WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

PEOPLE IN EASTERN GLASSCOCK COUNTY...INCLUDING THE CITY OF GARDEN
CITY...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR
WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
645 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2009

TXZ052-010015-
HOWARD-
645 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR HOWARD COUNTY.

A THUNDERSTORM WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WAS LOCATED OVER
FAIRVIEW AT 645 PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

PEA TO MARBLE SIZED HAIL AND WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 50 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE.

PEOPLE IN HOWARD COUNTY...INCLUDING THE CITY OF BIG SPRING...SHOULD
MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN
ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

70